Ornn retweeted
Yesterday brought two data points about the health of inference businesses : SpaceX's third-quarter report & DeepSeek's inference post.
Overall, they demonstrate that inference businesses can be quite healthy even at current prices & efficiencies.
SpaceX's CFO says new compute pays back in under a year. Ornn's data confirms it.
At on-demand rates and rolling utilization averages:
- B200 and B300 both payback in 10mo
- A Vera Rubin rack's current 1yr term rate pays back in 12-13 months.
For reference, a 1 GW B300 build will earn ~$38-39B in revenue per year purely at these on-demand rates, with additional earning opportunities from serving inference.
Great insights from @ttunguz.
Ornn retweeted
GPU hours can be bought and sold through a compute market. @bavaria_kush, Co-Founder & CEO of @OrnnExchange, explains what his team is building and why.
Follow @tech_fit_talks for more conversations about building technology.
#AIInfrastructure
Yesterday, @OrnnExchange's B200 and B300 indexes reached a new all-time high prices, with the B200 hitting $8.54/GPU-hour.
It is clear that today's market is lacking GPU capacity, and that the companies building deploying capacity are looking to improve their credit. In the past trading week as the B200 rental price increased by 12.9%, $CRWV fell by 25.2%.
Why does $CRWV move inversely to rising compute prices as a neocloud? 98% of Coreweave's Q2 revenue came from committed contracts, 72% from three customers, and most of its $104B backlog is recognized after mid-2028.
CoreWeave's backlog is locked at fixed prices. These higher market rates matter for new contracts they sign, so the question is where rental rates end up when their contracts roll off.
Ornn's index tracks transacted prices in order to capture what buyers are actually willing to pay for on-demand GPU rentals, real signal for tracking the value of compute.
This week in compute:
1. H100 closed at $2.81/hr, down $0.09 (-3.1%) on the week, after swinging from a low near $2.27 (Oct 11) to a high near $3.67 (Oct 15). Utilization ended at 86.3%, ranging roughly 78% to 99%.
2. B200 closed at $8.53/hr, up $0.97 (+12.9%), climbing in two step-ups (Oct 13 and Oct 16) from a low near $7.27 to a high near $8.63. Utilization fell to 81.4% after a late-week dip near 61%, so price kept rising even as usage softened.
3. CoreWeave ($CRWV) fell 23.7% on the week ($80.44 to $61.39), including a 15.5% drop on Oct 14, and is now 57% below its 52-week high. Credit is flashing distress, with 2032 notes yielding ~15% and 5Y CDS at a record above 1,000bps, as Q2 interest expense ran 5x operating income.
ALT Source: data.ornn.com
Ornn retweeted
When people talk about running AI inside a bank, the conversation usually starts with what model. In practice, the first real decision is how to secure the compute to run it - @Farsight_AI's partnership with @OrnnExchange now makes this simple.
Ornn is the leader in financial markets for compute. With our partnership, banks can now source capacity through Ornn and run Farsight's model-agnostic solutions directly through it - all in their own environments on-premise. This brings the full stack to the firm, from the infrastructure to the work product that their teams rely on.
More + the press release in the thread below.
CoreWeave ($CRWV) is falling while GPU rents keep climbing. Over the past six months, Ornn's OCPI H100 rent is up 79% and B200 is up 84%. Yet CRWV is down 26%, and its 2032 bonds just broke 15%.
If compute is this scarce, what is the market pricing?
Fundamentally, GPU rental risk is amplified by debt.
CoreWeave paid $640M of interest last quarter and expects about $900M this quarter, nearly four times its operating profit. Its newest GPU loan matures across five years against contracts that pay over three. Around 2029, CoreWeave and its lenders will have to re-lease those GPUs at whatever rental prices are then, while the debt payments stay fixed.
Future GPU rent is uncertain, which is exactly why operators and lenders need to hedge it.
@OrnnExchange and @ICE_Markets are launching monthly, cash-settled futures on OCPI H100 (ICE:HPR) and B200 (ICE:BKL) to make this possible.
data.ornn.com
The @OrnnExchange GB300 forward surface is now available to Ornn Data Enterprise customers.
Use Ornn to see @Nvidia GB300 pricing across contract terms, built from real cleared transactions from reserved contracts.
See values at data.ornn.com
Ornn retweeted
You’re not investing in a CEO. You’re investing in a team. @wayne_nelmz takes more calls than me.
for the love of god founders please make sure your ceo attends the fundraising pitches with investors and not your cto
coz having someone say things like do u use instinct or Muse in nyc or even worse say were raising 5-20m based on what investors will give us wont help your cause
also i almost autopass on companies if the ceo doesnt take the vc pitch for fundraising
We are happy to announce that the contract specifications for our @ICE_Markets compute futures are now available.
Find more information here: ice.com/publicdocs/futures_u…
Thank you @monad for the feature.
Compute markets are growing here on compute.ornn.com
Compute is emerging as a new asset class, and @OrnnExchange is building markets for it.
We sat down with @wayne_nelmz, co-founder and CTO of Ornn, to chat about pricing, hedging, and trading compute.
Timestamps 👇
0:00 Intro
0:49 Meet Wayne
2:15 GPU pricing & Ornn's compute marketplace
4:27 Why compute differs from oil
5:47 Compute pricing and market neutrality
10:07 Bloomberg and compute exchange partnerships
12:40 AI infrastructure's financing gap
16:42 Compute forward curves and price risk
21:58 AI token pricing and inference costs
24:26 Compute markets and blockchain
28:36 Financial engineering and institutional adoption
Using transaction data from long-term contracts, @OrnnExchange has modeled a price surface for GPU rentals as a function of order size and contract length.
The data shows a positive correlation between price and GPU capacity size, and an inverse correlation between price and contract length.
Now, what's the underlying reasons behind these trends?
1/ Small orders are filled from leftover capacity. As a result, sellers may discount it to maximize utilization.
2/ Big buyers are buying scarcity. A request for >1k H100s, etc clustered together has only a few vendors to choose from.
See the numbers at data.ornn.com, and rent your capacity at compute.ornn.com.
The case for compute markets and compute indices begins with a growing imbalance: the ambition to scale AI depends on enormous commitments of capital, while the people financing that expansion face extreme market uncertainty.
Building lasting AI infrastructure requires a better way to understand, price, and share that risk.
Compute has become a strategic resource. Access to it shapes who can develop advanced AI, bring new products to market, and compete on a global stage. For companies and nations alike, securing reliable compute capacity is increasingly tied to economic opportunity and technological independence.
The opportunity we are attacking is building the market infrastructure that allows more people to participate in AI’s expansion with confidence. That means giving a developer greater visibility into future compute costs, an operator a stronger basis for planning capacity, and a financier a clearer understanding of the exposure they are taking on.
We have an opportunity to make the economics of compute more transparent and its risks more manageable. Doing so will support the next generation of AI infrastructure.
Arnold Ventures Co-Chair @JohnArnold on what’s stopping compute from becoming a real commodity market:
“Compute is not a commodity where one data center is providing the same product as another data center.”
“You either have to deliver into a certain product that has a lot of buyers and a lot of sellers… or you need some type of index that the industry trusts.”
“There just aren’t that many short-term deals. Transparency into those is difficult.”
“The distinctions between the chips and the design of the data center and all the specific needs is just different.”
“Trying to either come up with the physical delivery mechanism or the index that everybody trusts to be right is really hard.”
An NVIDIA GPU is a high-yield asset.
An H100, bought on the secondary market in Sep 2025 for ~$19k:
Resale today: ~$20.5k
Net rent earned: ~$13.5k
Total: ~$34,000, +76% in 1 year.
A B300, bought in Jul 2026 for ~$54k:
Resale today: ~$51k
Net rent earned: ~$14k
Total: ~$65,500, +21% in under 3 months
What allows these assets continue to earn? Resale value has held as rental rates have increased and demand has grown across all hardware generations.
Resale rates have held within −5% to +7%, while Ornn's H100 index is $2.91/hr, +49% from a year ago, and our new B300 index tracks at $11.32/hr, up 66% from June. H100 marketplace utilization is 87% today. B300 is at 90%.
Ornn's forward curves predicts that in 2 years, by Sep 2028:
H100 ~$63,500 (+227%)
B300 ~$186,000 (+244%)
NVIDIA Hopper and Blackwell hardware both hold incredible residual value.
Can the rental price of GPUs predict stock prices?
Ornn's A100 GPU rental index has led Astera Labs's stock price by about 5 weeks.
- The index's 20-day moves line up with ALAB's 20-day moves 25 trading days later (r = 0.74).
- Moved forward 5 weeks, the index tracks ALAB's price at r = 0.87 after removing the shared upward trend.
- It holds across the year, and it holds even after stripping out the chip sector's own moves or NVDA's.
Astera Labs makes the connectivity chips inside AI servers. GPU rental prices show how tight AI capacity is right now. The companies that sell into AI server build-outs are priced on that tightness after it shows up in orders.
Ornn prices compute where it actually trades. The signal shows up here before it shows up anywhere else.
data.ornn.com
Ornn's B200 Rental Index has reached an all time high.
B200s on-demand rentals are now transacting at an average price of $7.88 per GPU hour.
data.ornn.com
