Pinned Tweet
ULTRA: The Drone That Could Carry $ONDS - A Deep Dive
Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
Ondas reported record third quarter 2026 revenue of $167.5 million, with $214 million in new orders and $835 million in backlog. Ondas raised its full-year 2026 revenue target to at least $550 million. It also set an initial 2027 target of at least $1.1 billion, which excludes additional acquisitions. $ONDS
ondas.com/post/ondas-posts-r…
$ONDS Q3 2026 is out, Here's the breakdown:
Revenue: $167.5M
~2x Q2 ($83.8M)
16x+ Q3 2025 ($10.1M)
Beat their own $140–155M guide
64% pro forma organic growth
Bookings: $214M (book-to-bill ~1.3x)
Backlog: $835M, +36% QoQ
Cash: $820M
Guidance
FY26 raised to $550+ million (was $525–550M)
Q4 target: $250+ million
FY27 initial guide: $1.1+ billion, NOT counting future acquisitions, 40%+ organic
Company-wide adj. EBITDA breakeven pulled forward to Q3 2027 (was Q4 2027)
Wins
-US Army follow-on order under the Lethal Unmanned Systems IDIQ
- $140M combat engineering vehicle program, volume deliveries start Q4
- Israeli MOD "Digital Bat" attack drone award
- Sentrycs counter-UAS at most 2026 World Cup stadiums + multiple NFL stadiums
- Ondas Sentinel (DZYNE + World View) booked $100M in its first quarter
My take:
A few weeks ago I said one of these charts was wrong. Revenue doubled QoQ, backlog is closing in on $1B, and they're guiding to $1.1B next year. The margin hit is the cost of absorbing six acquisitions in one quarter. Demand isn't the question anymore. Execution is.
Not financial advice
3
235
Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
🧵 | $ONDS
🚨👀 Well, here it is..FINALLY
By far, the BIGGEST piece of research I’ve ever done and the most amount of work I’ve ever put into one post.
The ENTIRE public staff directory of $ONDS and EVERY single one of its subsidiaries/business units.
Nearly 700 members of staff, their job titles and, most importantly, their career backgrounds.
I’ve had to remove over 100 names just to fit them into 8 images in this two part thread.
The talent stacking from $ONDS the last 12 months has been insane. IDF, IAF, US Army, UK MOD, IMOD, Elbit, Rafael, Raytheon..the list goes on and on.
I hope you enjoy reading through this insane list of talent, just as much as I have enjoyed compiling it for you all.
This took me a few weeks to pull together, so any likes, reposts etc. would be extremely appreciated👊🏻❤️
CC: @bodoxstocks @ive_m5 @itschrisray @Courage_wins @YoYInvestor @amitisinvesting @stevenfiorillo @stockseer @SheriffStrategy @StockSavvyShay
$ONDS reports Q3 tomorrow pre-market
My numbers:
Revenue: ~$150M (guide $140–155M)
That's ~15x YoY
EPS: Street sits at -$0.13
1. Share count is ~570M now vs ~500M weighted last Q. Same loss = ~-$0.12
2. Stock fell ~11% in Q3, so the $1 billion+ warrant liability gets marked down = big non-cash gain
My GAAP EPS: -$0.06 base case. A positive print isn't off the table.
Q4: The $525–550M FY guide implies ~$235–275M in Q4 revenue. That's a ~$1B annualized run rate exiting 2026, with management targeting operating-platform adj. EBITDA profitability the same quarter
FY27: Last November they dropped a next-year target on the Q3 call. Street is ~$980M for 2027. I project $1-$1.25 billion+
$757M pro forma backlog + $270M + in orders since June 30
$1.1 billion in cash
40% short interest
3.2B market cap
$3.2B for a company guiding to a $1B run rate
One of these numbers is wrong.
Long $ONDS (largest position) NFA
Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
Citizens estimates a ~$160B addressable market for $ONDS but what really stands out to me is that ~$120B comes from counter-drone defense alone with ~$96B of that opportunity coming international.
That international exposure is huge because allied militaries facing cheap drone threats cannot keep relying on million-dollar missiles which creates a growing need for better detection and interception systems that can be deployed at scale.
And I almost look at rest of this chart as a roadmap for what Ondas could become with Stemme bringing ISR aircraft manufacturing in-house at ~25% factory utilization while autonomous ground systems and precision strike represent next logical pieces of a much broader defense platform.
JUST IN: Citrini Research advises clients to cover $NBIS short position and to go short $IREN instead.
"One quick swap we are making is $IREN for $NBIS on the short leg of the neocloud pair mostly to derisk on earnings (IREN announced and popped harder than the sector today, NBIS earnings is next week). IREN is also more stretched in balance sheet, which matters since financing reflexivity is a huge part of this."
202
$ONDS 1 year ago: $5
$ONDS today: $5
Change: 0%
Q3 revenue 1 year ago: $10.1M
Q3 guide today: $155M (15x)
Backlog 1 year ago: $23M
Backlog today: $757M (32x)
- $270 million+ in new orders since June 30
2026 revenue guide 1 year ago: $110M
2026 revenue guide today: $525–550M (5x raise)
Q3 guide alone: nearly 3x ALL of 2025
1 year ago: "drone company"
Today: Neo-Prime, Prime on $1 billion+ of DoW contract vehicles, launched Regna AI with $PLTR, backed by $LMT, counter-UAS wins across Europe + Asia, buying Stemme to build 10 ULTRA ISR aircraft a month by 2028
The business went vertical. The stock went sideways
All eyes on November 12th
More bullish than ever
NFA
$ONDS reports Thursday. Here's my model for the print:
Q3 revenue (guide $140–155M, Street ~$147M):
- Bear: $136M
- Base: $152M
- Bull: $168M
Why I lean beat: first full quarter of DZYNE, Cyberhawk + GATE closed mid-quarter, $270+ million in new orders since June 30
They blew past expectations in Q1 AND Q2
But Q3 isn't the real test. To hit the $525–550M FY guide, Q4 needs ~$240–265M
Watch if they reaffirm
If they do: Q4 run-rate ≈ $1B/yr, EV ≈ $2 billion
I hold $ONDS Not financial advice
