Pinebrook Capital Join our Substack: https://teapaw.org/t.co/Lq7srOiZ1x @EconstratPB | David Cervantes @MacrostratPB is for our PAID subs
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Joined December 2025
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Folks if you followed here to stay in touch I appreciate it.
I will be migrating main public engagement back to @EconstratPB
This will remain a back up and DM-use account.
Thanks and see you on the other side.
Pinebrook Capital pinebrookcap.com retweeted
Folks if you followed here to stay in touch I appreciate it.
I will be migrating main public engagement back to @EconstratPB
This will remain a back up and DM-use account.
Thanks and see you on the other side.
Heads up:
We’re so fucking back.
I’ve regained control of this account.
1. If you were blocked by the TTD (twatter transmitted disease) apologies and pls reach out to @PBCapit
2. If you were infected by the TTD via this account pls accept my apologies.
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There’s a lot of this going around this weekend. All perfectly rational. Explainable.
All anchored to a past that no longer exists.
Imagine comparing the economy of the 80s to the Post War period. ❌
90s to 70s ❌
People are doing the same thing. Again.
Pinebrook Capital pinebrookcap.com retweeted
Semi Surge vs. Macro Realities
Chip stocks are soaring on AI optimism, but markets appear to assume booming profits with little cost to the broader economy, suggesting this is yet another mania more than a plausible macro reality.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
Don’t @ me about but but but Howard Marks.
Brother you ain’t no HM. He plays a different game, just like other big guys.
The amount of retards losing money bc Druck and Dalio said something…..SMH.
Key word: historically.
Look forward. Not backwards.
It’s 2026. Diff economy from 1985, from which these old data sets draw from.
Regime change is a thing kids.
People like this will keep fighting the mkt and lose money.
It’s been happening since 2009.
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Key word: historically.
Look forward. Not backwards.
It’s 2026. Diff economy from 1985, from which these old data sets draw from.
Regime change is a thing kids.
People like this will keep fighting the mkt and lose money.
It’s been happening since 2009.
Howard Marks is the biggest bear right now—the S&P 500's trailing P/E ratio is 26 times, while the forward estimate is 21 times—both at elevated levels.
Historically, when the P/E ratio has reached around 23 times, the 10-year annualized return that follows has ranged from 2% to −2%, with no exceptions.
Even in the best case, it's negative after inflation adjustment. History proves that buying at high valuations makes asset building difficult…
Forget recession. Think about what this means for
Rates (higher) ✅
Stonks (highererer) ✅
Oil (less demand destruction that expected) ✅
Volatility (lower) ❌
Your mom (you can send her on vacay) ✅
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A year too early?
No client will tolerate a year of watching crazy gains slip by without firing you.
And you’d better be goddamn sure about what happens in a year (you won’t).
But 2.5mm clicks.
Spending less time on here is truly a blessing.
unavailable
The debate is performative foreplay.
The economics don’t allow for a cut and will lean towards a hike.
I get political dimension of it. But Warsh doesn’t have the internal politics on his side.
Being a Fed dove in 2025: Here’s why we should cut
Being a Fed dove in 2026: Here’s why we don’t need to hike
How the Mideast energy crisis is reshaping the Fed’s debate
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If the news paper guy can keep his job in the age of digital media, the doomer
Ai scenario is a crock of shit.
Not that Ai won’t cause displacement.
I’m saying it takes time. And in that time new businesses will be born.
Same as it ever was.
Holy shit. While walking the dog this morning I saw something I haven’t seen in 20-years:
Some mfer driving around on a newspaper route!!!
Wut?? Those jobs still exist???
And you still think Ai is gonna put people outta work, anon??
Brother pls.
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Holy shit. While walking the dog this morning I saw something I haven’t seen in 20-years:
Some mfer driving around on a newspaper route!!!
Wut?? Those jobs still exist???
And you still think Ai is gonna put people outta work, anon??
Brother pls.
This is a metaphor for my twatter lockout work flows.
The two white dots on the right of the screen are from my radar signaling 2 car bogeys (bears?) approaching from behind.
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Pinebrook Capital pinebrookcap.com retweeted
这篇和最近几篇，真的非常好！
Pinebrook Capital pinebrookcap.com retweeted
I read every article that David writes. This one is really good and I don't say that lightly.
The standard is excellence. And David always has thought provoking but well grounded takes.
Pinebrook Capital pinebrookcap.com retweeted
Folks you need to get after this one.
By connecting a lot of dots in a broad framework refresher as well as a richer, deeper descriptive narrative, it is a magnus opus that brings a lot together to help you navigate H2 2026.
A good part of it is free so don't be lazy.
