columbus, ohio

NEW: Brian Resnick from Davis Polk restructuring team now on scene at Weil and wind-down now being actively discussed among options: ft.com/content/69ccfcb0-3f5e…

What’s the best age to buy a Rolex?

MORGAN STANLEY WARNS OF BRAZIL MARKET SELLOFF Morgan Stanley forecasts a 20%–30% drop in Brazilian equities following Lula's election victory. The bank sees USD/BRL reaching 5.60, potentially 6.00 if fiscal concerns worsen, alongside 300–400 bps of pressure on interbank rates. The key takeaway: Rising fiscal risks threaten Brazil's currency, bonds and equities. Related tickers: $EWZ, $PBR, $VALE

The craziest reveal in You Can See Everything is actually the fact that she never sold secondary

I don’t think rev revisions will peak unless/until CapEx growth revisions peak. Once revs slow, a 10+ yr period of rising FCF margins begins. Or so is my hope. Better said, if CapEx growth < rev growth when rev revisions peak, I think they perform well. Perfect world for semis is CapEx % OCF just slowly declines to normalized levels (say ~40-50% w/ 40-60% OCF mgns, i.e., ~25-30% Hyper terminal FCF mgns [terminal ROIC / FCF mgn varies by Hyper: MSFT has high OCF mgns / low asset turnover, AMZN has higher asset to / lower ocf mgns, naturally … terminal CapEx % revs function of asset to]) while Hyper OCF grows 20-30% for a long time + neos/on-prem also grows fast. Possible. Feels like threading a needle. I own a lot of semis + Hypers.

Dario Amodei was so worried about Y2K that his high school teacher still remembers it decades later. He’s been a doomer for much longer than I thought!

Is $UBER management willfully retarded? Instacart?? Are you fucking kidding me

And here we go, Round 3 From Nomura: we’ve seen resumption of “Notable Call Buying” in some of the usual suspect “Core AI” names over the course of the past week which should be monitored CRWV: $69M premium, delta of 3M shares or $170M - buyer of 21k Apr 80 Calls for $7.15 (10/22) - buyer of 25k Mar 85 Calls for $8.07 (10/21) - buyer of 20k Apr 90 Calls for $8.07 (10/15) - buyer of 20k Mar 80 Calls for $8.85 (10/14) NBIS: $25.7M premium, delta of 500k shares or $80M - buyer of 7.5k Mar 230 Calls for $16.07 (10/22) - buyer of 7.5k Apr 260 Calls for $18.15 (10/21) DRAM: $20M premium, delta of 1.9M shares or $85M - buyer of 27k Apr 60 Calls for $3.40 (10/22) - buyer of 30k Mar 60 Calls for $3.65 (10/21)

This paragraph from $META's inside 10-q filling may mark the official announcement that the funding environment for the AI buildout has turned the corner. (HT: Barclays' Alexander Altmann)

FT: Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told investors in a private meeting that he did not see a “systemic problem” with the AI boom, downplaying concerns that the industry is in a bubble like the one that preceded the dotcom bust. “I’m good at figuring out when there are problems in systems,” Bessent, said when asked about AI in an interview with Bridgewater chief executive Nir Bar Dea, according to three people who were present at the event. “I don’t see a systemic problem.”

Cool stuff mark. Any idea how it makes you money?