Derin Stidd

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

Don’t vote for the Chaldeans to stick it to the Right. Some great things are happening at the federal level and some not so great. Critics on the Right point to another Middle Eastern war, a slow start on mass deportations, failure to implement most of the proposed DOGE cuts, and wink-and-nod immorality. Much of that is true. We are a nation that has forgotten God—wanton immorality, fiscal recklessness, failure to prioritize our own citizens—and compromising rulers can already be part of that judgment. This administration is the best in recent memory, and there is room for improvement. But we do not answer the left by becoming or empowering the left. Where your conscience is torn, consider Habakkuk. God raised up the Chaldeans, that bitter and hasty nation, and they did to Israel what invaders do—seized homes, crushed the people, left ruin behind them. If Israel had been handed a ballot, casting it for the Chaldeans would have been wicked, because of what it would mean for their children, their worship, and their countrymen. Judgment on your nation does not license you to vote in the destroyers. Now look at the God-hating left. You may think I exaggerate by calling them Chaldeans. I do not. Democrats have told us how they mean to destroy us and our kids—open borders, packed courts, abolish the Electoral College, add DC and Puerto Rico, permanent one-party rule, prenatal homicide on demand, persecute Christians, jail their political enemies. They celebrated when Charlie Kirk was murdered. They are the Chaldeans. There is no “punish Republicans and get our guy next time.” If they achieve half of what they propose, there will not be a next time. So vote with the options you have. Do not vote for the Chaldeans. And while you vote, plead with God for the repentance of this nation and of its rulers—not because every Republican deserves applause, but because handing America to the Chaldeans would be far worse. Hab 1:6; Rom 13:3-4; 1 Tim 2:1-2; Prov 29:2

We’ve gone from cringey pastors talking about their “smokin hot wife” to cringey pastors talking about their “super white wife.” The more things change…

Loser theology is always Good Friday but never Easter. Hebrews 12:2 says Jesus is “the founder and perfecter of our faith, who for the joy that was set before him endured the cross, despising the shame, and is seated at the right hand of the throne of God.” The cross was necessary, but the ultimate destination was eternal joy and divine glory.