
Crypto Trader & Investor | Analyst for @Kaizen & @Chroma_Trading | Personal views
Moon
Joined November 2016
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1/ I think this is the stronger Kalshi volume question than the ETH perp argument
The issue isn’t “parlays are fake trades”. It’s that Kalshi’s headline volume is concentrated in the products that maximise the gap between cash staked and reported notional.
Let's deep dive!
all of kalshi’s volume is inflated. parlays are 61% of their reported volume and it’s all fake
yesterday they had $136M actually traded but they reported $1.91B
$1 placed on a 14.1x parlay gets counted as $14.10 in volume
48% of their parlay volume are slips with 11+ legs (moonshots that never hit)
i think they are doing this to fool investors
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8/ Taken alongside @beniduboss’s recent allegations of wash trading on Kalshi this 100% deserves closer scrutiny.
The concentration is incredibly unusual against Polymarket & traditional sportsbook standards...
Kalshi has some explaining to do!!
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Paul retweeted
Our sports predictions expert @PaulXBT landed a massive win 💰
He backed the NY Knicks to become NBA champions at 4¢
He fully cashed out at 79¢ for an insane +1500% return 🤯
#ChromaTrading
Paul retweeted
$BTC short | +1.3R 🔥
Another clean play from our boy @PaulXBT
Consistency compounds 📈
#ChromaTrading
Paul retweeted
$BTC short | +2R 💰
Our newest team member @PaulXBT is killing it
Shorted the top and printed big 🖨️
#ChromaTrading
Paul retweeted
Chroma squad upgrade
About time we gave this guy his own channel
Welcome to the team @PaulXBT 🥂
#ChromaTrading
There’s an account pretending to be me, @PaulXBT_.
It’s fake. Do not engage...block & report.
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Last night inside @Kaizen, we alerted a BTC short at $110.8K.
Price rolled over almost immediately, with little to no drawdown, and then swept every TP into the $108K area...where $BTC bottomed out.
If you’d like more #BTC signals and an early heads up on the next move, join Kaizen today.
P.S. If you DM me, I may be able to help with the waitlist.
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$BTC / #BTC
Currently sitting flat...leaning somewhat bearish, which admittedly carries some risk given we’re in Uptober.
Yesterday saw a sharp downside move, sweeping the range low and cleaning up green vector candles from the prior impulsive move up. From there, we got a solid bounce back into structure.
Today, we’re witnessing another vector candle recovery following that quick downturn, and price is now testing Monday’s low.
My cautious bias stems from Monday’s strong pump...it could well have set our weekly high. Time will tell.
Trading plan:
• Looking to short BTC around the supply zone near $124.5K.
• If we drop without revisiting that zone, I’ll be watching the $118.6K area for a potential reaction... that’s also where VAH and POC line up.
I’ll keep monitoring and share updates as the price action unfolds.
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In @Kaizen, we alerted a BTC short alert at $125.3K last night.
Within just 20 hours, BTC plummeted 3.5%, yielding us 65% ROI on 20x leverage.
Uncertain where BTC’s headed next? Stay tuned...a full market update is coming soon.
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