Peak Trading Research

#AgsThisWeek: Hedge funds dumped another -$9.8B in Ag futures, extending their selling streak to nine COT weeks, with a tenth underway. 📉 Corn is now net SHORT for the first time since June. 🌽 Positioning is cleaner, but bulls need a catalyst. CPI + WASDE Tuesday. 🚜📊

📉 $35B HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATION! 🚨 Nine straight COT weeks of selling slashed Ag net length from +$56.9B in September to just +$21.9B as of last Tuesday. And that's now closer to +$17.5B, given the selling through the end of last week. 💔 Why are funds selling? Fast Brazil planting, favorable S.A. weather, weak BRL, lower Crude Oil, AI stock anxiety & Black Sea peace hopes. Positioning is a LOT cleaner. 🧼 But CLEAN doesn't mean BULLISH. Bulls need feeding! 🌽

🌽 CORN: CHEAP & OVERSOLD! 📉 Funds sold Corn again last week, flipping Managed Money net SHORT (-22.9k cks) for the first time since late June. At $4.40/bu, with solid Mexico demand and Brazil Safrinha weather risk ahead, is it time for BULLS to get back on the train? 🚂

📉 TEN WEEKS! Hedge funds went from massive buying in August to NINE straight COT weeks of selling. 🌽🌾🌱💔 Last week: -260k cks (-$9.8B). Largest since June. Since Tuesday: Another -108k cks estimated. $35B in fund length liquidated since September. Think of 35 different funds liquidating their $1B Ag books. Who's left to sell? 🌽

🌽 CORN: FUNDS FLIP NET SHORT! 📉 Managed Money sold -78.8k Corn contracts (-$1.74B) last week, flipping to -22.9k net *short* for the first time since late June. Across Ags: -260k contracts (-$9.8B), the biggest outflows since June. 🚨 That's nine straight COT weeks of selling, with a tenth underway. Is positioning now CLEAN enough to entice the bulls back in? 🧼

⚠️ Hedge fund flows MATTER in Ags. 🌽 Since Sep 1's RECORD net long, Managed Money traders have SOLD -374k Corn contracts ... and prices fell -98¢/bu. 📉 Positioning is now neutral (51st percentile) this morning. But Corn needs a spark (better demand, S.A. weather, softer USD) to reignite fund buying. 📈 🤞🏼

🌽 #AgsThisWeek: Macro nervous after the Fed’s “hawkish hold” + Friday’s stock selloff. 📉 Midterms Tue, NFP Fri. 📊 Funds dumped -$6.6B in Ags, biggest outflow since June. Crowded longs: Matif Corn, Soybeans, Meal, Sugar. S.A. weather + seasonals weigh on Grains; China demand a backstop.🚜🤞🏼

NINE WEEKS OF SELLING! 📉🌽 Hedge funds have sold Agriculture futures for eight consecutive COT weeks, with a ninth underway. Managed Money net length has collapsed from a 2026 high of +$56.9B to +$33.0B in Tuesday's COT report. We estimate it's now closer to +$27.5B after more selling into Friday. Harvest pressure, favorable S.A. weather, a weaker BRL, and broader macro uncertainty have kept funds heading for the exits. The good news? Much of the crowded length has been cleaned up, especially in Corn. The bad news? The bulls still need feeding. Weather, demand, macros ... something. 🐂🌽🤞🏼 #agriculture #hedgefunds

Another disappointing month for Agriculture markets. 💔🌽 The Bloomberg Agriculture Index, a basket of Grains, Oilseeds, Meats, and Softs, fell -5.6% in October ... after a -6.1% decline in September. Two tough months for the bulls. 📉📉 Funds aggressively liquidated longs, especially in Corn, as U.S. harvest pressure intensified. Favorable South American weather and a weaker BRL added pressure, threatening U.S. export competitiveness. 🌱 All eyes are now on Tuesday's U.S. midterms and Friday's NFP as the U.S. harvest winds down and Brazil's Soybean crop takes center stage. 🌦️ #agriculture #macromatters

🚨 NINE WEEKS OF FUND SELLING! 🌽 Latest COT: −233k contracts ... biggest outflows since JUNE. We estimate another −96k since Tuesday. Why? Weak BRL, favorable S.A. weather, midterm jitters & AI-trade anxiety. 📉 Can China buying and higher energy prices save Ags? 🚜🛢️🤞🏼

🚨 BIGGEST AG FUND OUTFLOWS SINCE JUNE! Funds dumped −233k contracts (−$6.6B). That's EIGHT straight weeks of selling ... and a ninth underway. 📉 Why? Favorable S.A. weather, weak BRL, hawkish Fed & U.S. midterm jitters. 💔 Still crowded: Sugar, Meal, Soybeans & Matif Corn. The bulls need to be fed. 🌽🌱🍬

Bloomberg just announced its 2027 BCOM Index weights: Grains + Oilseeds fall to their LOWEST allocation in index history (20.61%). 📉🌾🌽🌱 Index funds are the whales in our markets 🐋 , so this is another unwelcome storm cloud for farmers hoping to see higher Grain prices. 💔 #agriculture #index

🇧🇷 Lula wins = new Ag macro headwind. 🌱📉 The Brazilian Real had firmed as markets expected a Bolsonaro victory, but CME BRL futures show traders are unwinding that move. A weaker Real makes Brazilian Ag exports more competitive ... a big headwind for U.S. Ag. 💔 #MacroMatters

🌽 #AGSThisWeek: Macro still slightly supportive for Ags, but it’s a BIG week: 🏛️ Fed Wednesday, 🛢️ Brent ~$117 on Iran risk, 🇧🇷 Brazil votes today. 📉 Funds still +$38B long after 8 weeks of selling, *record* Corn long cut 66%. 🇨🇳 China is back buying U.S. Soybeans. 🌱💪🏼

📉 SEVEN WEEKS OF SELLING - STILL +$40B LONG! 🌽 Managed money traders held +$40.4B net long in the Oct 20 COT, down from ~$55B six weeks ago. That's STILL in the upper half of their 2026 range (+$8.9B to +$56.9B). 🐂 Bulls love the cleaner Corn positioning ... 🐻 Bears say there's still plenty of length left to liquidate! 👀 #COT #Agriculture

Funds are on pace for EIGHT straight weeks of Ag futures selling. 🌽📉 Last COT: -143k contracts (-$4.0B). Since Tuesday: est. -81k more (-$1.9B). August's buying spree is fully unwound. 💔 #COT #Agriculture

🌽 CORN CLEANED UP! 🧼📉 Sep 1: *Record* +431k Corn net long (+$11.7B). Oct 20: Just +146k (+$3.4B). That's -285k (-66%) in 7 weeks. We estimate another -23k sold since Tuesday. Dec Corn: -90¢ (-16%). Brazil risks ahead, Crude rising - time to re-load? 👀 #COT #agriculture

🚩 Ag curves are FLASHING RED! 🌽📉 Agriculture carry yield has fallen from +2.5% in August to -0.7% today. Negative carry makes it more costly for hedge funds and index investors to stay LONG. Like swimming upstream. 🌊 The message? Supplies are comfortable, demand is softer, and there's little urgency to buy NOW. 💔 #Commodities #Agriculture

🌾 #AgsThisWeek: The macro mood is nervous (VIX above 20!) ahead of next week's important Fed decision. 🏛️ Funds keep selling, led by #Corn, but remain heavily LONG & vulnerable in a few key markets. 🌱 Record-fast Brazil Soybean planting adds pressure. China is buying U.S. Soybeans. 🐂 Bulls need feeding!

🌾 Hedge funds are STILL heavily LONG Ag futures 🌽📊 Despite seven weeks of selling, Managed Money traders are still +$45.4 BILLION net long across the ag complex. That's still near the upper end of their +$8.9B to +$56.9B 2026 positioning range. Funds have trimmed their longs ... but there's plenty of crowded length left to liquidate if the bearish news keeps accumulating. 📉💔 #Commodities #Agriculture #COT