Econometrician and investor. Mostly distressed debt and small caps. Rationality over emotion. Critical about corrupted 'science'. Cui bono? Views are my own.

Joined October 2015
I’ll cover the subject of mRNA vaccines. I warn you. Do not read this twitter thread if you want to stay stuck in your belief that the vaccine is your golden ticket to pre-pandemic life! Do read it if you want to be informed about what would be injected in your body. 1/
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PerpetualValue retweeted
CHART OF THE DAY: The Canadian oil benchmark is trading at the widest discount to WTI in ~8 years: minus $31 a barrel, per @General_Index data. As I wrote a few days ago, expensive freight is behind the balkanization of the global oil market: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… @Opinion
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PerpetualValue retweeted
BREAKING: European natural gas benchmark price (TTF) surged through €100 a megawatt-hour for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
autopista.es/noticias-motor/… No,no es ninguna broma. Como los europeos no queremos electricos porque les falta autonomía la UE va a reducir el depósito de los coches de combustión para asemejar la autonomía a los eléctricos. Vivimos una distopía TOTAL. Una dictadura comunista.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
In England, vaccine uptake landed around 70 percent, meaning 30 percent never took a single dose. Denmark came in the same. So did Finland. Africa was even lower. America lands in that same range, roughly 30 percent who never vaccinated. That number is worth sitting with. Under the largest coordinated propaganda campaign I’ve ever seen, every government on earth, the WHO, the WEF, the UN, all working in lockstep with a twenty four hour news cycle, 30 percent of humanity still said no. Different countries, different media systems, and the number held steady everywhere. We didn’t even know there were this many of us. People were too afraid to talk about it at work. When employers mandated vaccination to return, I told people to start talking to their coworkers. If the numbers held true in their own workplace, 30 percent of the room could have walked out together. Thirty percent changes governments. This is an international movement, and we have to keep speaking up loudly, or we lose both free speech and the most powerful chance for change we’ve had in a generation.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns Europe is falling dangerously behind America economically… and blames anti-business, anti-investment, and anti-innovation policies. 🇺🇸🇪🇺 “If you don’t believe me, go to Europe, folks. Europe used to have a GDP per person of 90% of America’s. It’s now 65%. It’s on its way to 50%. That will jeopardize the health of Europe itself over time. And it’s all anti-business, anti-investment, anti-innovation. They kind of know it. If they don’t fix it—and we should help them fix it, because Europe matters—it’s really bad for the Western world, too. We should do it wisely.” Europe shift over the past three decades has proven decimating for their economy. Aging population forces mass immigration in order to maintain adequate growth. Crazy regulation and bureaucracy slows innovation and investment… forcing the economy further down. At the same time, the United States has pulled ahead exponentially and will continue to do so. Europe is struggling.
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lots of high yield issues from Kurdistan operations at the same time, with good yield on offer: Genel 65m tap issue 9.4% yield on tap price ShaMaran 200m 10.25% yield Gulf Keystone 175m >10% yield Pearl 500m > 10% yield Genel I like the least, since it will be subordinated
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PerpetualValue retweeted
Terrible news from Gabon. Borr Drilling’s Prospector 5 jackup rig sank during jacking operations, with five people still unaccounted for and search and rescue operations ongoing. Hoping for the best possible outcome for those missing and their families.🙏🏻 $BORR
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BREAKING: Brazil's stock market collapses nearly -30% and the Brazilian Real loses -10% after President Lula da Silva is unexpectedly re-elected. Brazil's stock market has lost over $200 billion of market cap today.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
Credit spreads are starting to crack and widen materially. Risk off sentiment is increasing. Trading desk heads will be telling credit traders to cut risk as fast money sellers try to capture the move which exacerbates the spread widening. Its the same every time!
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PerpetualValue retweeted
'Franse rente doorbreekt voor het eerst sinds 2002 grens van 5%' fd.nl/financiele-markten/161… (gratis te lezen)- “vooralsnog is er geen reden voor paniek, laat staan voor ingrijpen door de ECB”. Reden voor paniek is er niet, maar wat mij betreft wel voor grote zorgen. Stuk is wat mij betreft veel te onbekommerd. Er is weinig uitzicht op een geloofwaardig Frans hervormings- en bezuinigingsbeleid.
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Milton Friedman argued that the welfare system can strip people of independence and dignity by making them dependent on government decisions. He warned that people may become afraid to take a job if losing it means risking the benefits they rely on. His concern was that a system meant to provide temporary assistance could end up trapping people in a cycle of dependency instead of helping them regain independence.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
EU Socialism at its finest: 1)Land Berlin elections won by leftists 2)They announce they want to "socialise properties" belonging to private RE co. =>bonds drop 3)They come to the market to ask you to fund this nonsense :) => and it works :)
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Ultra-processed foods trigger a bigger insulin response than less-processed ones, even when they contain identical calories and nutrients. When people consumed two different meals matched closely for protein, carbs, fat, and fiber, the ultra-processed one produced a larger insulin response despite a similar overall blood glucose response. It also blunted the normal shift toward burning carbohydrates after eating and changed the brain's response to eating. I’ve talked before about Kevin Hall’s trial, where people eating an ultra-processed diet consumed about 500 extra calories per day and gained weight. This new study explains another part of why UPFs are so problematic - it shows that the way food is processed can change how our bodies handle it and even how our brains perceive it!
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France has FREE health care, paid parental leave, paid family leave, FREE child care, FREE preschool, 5 weeks paid vacation, a 35 hour work week, generous unemployment and housing benefits, and heavily subsidized higher education. Everything the left says they want AND THEY'RE STILL PROTESTING AND BURNING SHIT DOWN.
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Unsustainable Open borders are incompatible with a big welfare system Cut the welfare system, and immigration will drop Incentivize people to work instead of subsidizing them to work little Integration will improve also if people are forced to work
🌍 European countries that added the most migrants (2000–2024) 1. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: +7.1M 2. 🇪🇸 Spain: +6.8M 3. 🇩🇪 Germany: +6.4M 4. 🇹🇷 Türkiye: +5.8M 5. 🇮🇹 Italy: +4.4M 6. 🇫🇷 France: +3.0M 7. 🇦🇹 Austria: +1.4M 8. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: +1.4M 9. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: +1.3M 10. 🇧🇪 Belgium: +1.3M 11. 🇸🇪 Sweden: +1.3M 12. 🇵🇱 Poland: +917K 13. 🇮🇪 Ireland: +840K 14. 🇳🇴 Norway: +720K 15. 🇷🇴 Romania: +521K 16. 🇵🇹 Portugal: +476K 17. 🇩🇰 Denmark: +475K 18. 🇭🇺 Hungary: +393K 19. 🇨🇿 Czechia: +386K 20. 🇫🇮 Finland: +378K Europe's migrant population grew by 40.8 million between 2000 and 2024, up 67%. The UK, Spain and Germany together account for almost half of that increase. Source: UN DESA
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Imagine having an even shittier coin than the GBP with Labour in Government
€Euro confidence on the slide. Make the most of that £pound.
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Be sure to play the cycle well
October 5th, 2023: Moody's downgrades Egypt. Bonds trading at 51c & +1250bps, about to embark on a historic +132% return over the next 2yrs. October 16th, 2026: Moody's upgrades Egypt, Bonds trading at 91c & +440bps, close to the tightest levels in the last 15 yrs. Sick.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
$Hr.un #REIT the corrupt scum is now sponsoring "vote yes" when you search H&R REIT into Google. Nobody in the right mind would vote yes after reviewing the circular. To date, I know over 20 million no votes and still zero yes votes.
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PerpetualValue retweeted
Happy anniversary to the 1987 market crash. 39 years ago today, the Dow fell 22.6% in a single session, still the worst on record.
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Interesting battle between DBAY and Richard Griffiths going on here P/B 75% with undervalued assets in the portfolio imho
People waking up to the discount on Logistics Development Group #LDG shares (25%) Led by DBAY, which had remarkable success selling Eddie Stobart Logistics at 4.7x to Culina Group in 2021 They are back into logistics with William Stobart Corporate governance issues, but I hold
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