Data Scientist @PrizePicks | Writer @VUHoops
Joined November 2009
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Every NBA champion since 2001 finished the regular season inside this Title Zone.
At least +3.3 points per 100 possessions better than average, with no real hole on offense or defense.
Two weeks in, 10 teams are in it. History says about half will still be there in April.
Who will actually finish in the Title Zone?
Two numbers do most of the work: how good you are now, and how good you were last season. Hot shooting, efficiency, SOS doesn’t matter.
The Thunder are outside it at +0.4 and still have a 74% chance. The Grizzlies are +10.5 and only have a 19% chance
To win a title since 2001, you've had to go through other title zone teams.
More than half the series every champion won came against a team that was also in the zone. 21 of the 26 Finals were zone vs zone.
Where each champ sat, and its seed:
2001 to 2013. Gold = the team they beat was also in the zone.
The Lakers beat four zone teams in a single run three times: 2001, 2002 and 2010. The 2001 team lost one game doing it.
Every champion since 2001, and where they finished the regular season
Closest calls:
2023 Nuggets at +3.3
2004 Pistons (only champ with a below-average offense)
2001 Lakers (worst defense of the group)
Villanova vs Notre Dame opens the College Basketball season in Rome tomorrow. I simulated it 10,000 times, here are some key stats I took
The 3pt line decides it: Nova wins 87% of sims when it makes more threes than the Irish, 48% when the Irish make more. Other key factors…
Who do you want with the shot clock running out?
Jalen Brunson: 53.4% eFG on shots with 7 or fewer seconds left (4.3 a game) last season. League average: 47.5%.
Durant 52.8%. Jokic 51.2%. Harden took 4.2 a game at 39.7%. Siakam: 34.5%.
Who can still hit a three with a hand in his face?
Brandon Miller led last season's high-volume shooters at 45.4% on contested 3s (defender within 4 ft). League average: 31.8%.
Jamal Murray and Kevin Durant were elite open or guarded. Derrick White shot 22% contested.
The next breakout is usually hiding in the minutes.
Last season's best per-minute young players who played under 24 a night, ranked by BPM (points added per 100 possessions vs an average player).
Kel'el Ware: 11.1 and 9.0 in 22 minutes. Now he's in Milwaukee.
Since 1979-80, four players have averaged 20 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists at 23 or younger.
Grant Hill. Nikola Jokic. Luka Doncic. And last season, Alperen Sengun.
The other three all made All-NBA First Team. Sengun hasn't yet. That's the next box to check.
Big year coming for Sengun this year 👀
Perry Sopinsky retweeted
Villanova’s physical makeup is completely different than it’s been the past 25 years. Bigger. Longer. Legitimate positional size. The Cats are huge across the board.
Perry Sopinsky retweeted
Greetings from The Main Line. Here for Villanova practice. Year 2 of the Kevin Willard era.
Philly opens the season with three 30+ guys among its top four scorers. LeBron 42, Embiid 32, Brown 30.
Since 2001, 43 teams have done that. They averaged 49 wins, made the playoffs 84% of the time, won 3 titles.
The last 8, however, failed to reach the Finals.
