Team Macro Man, City veteran, investor, trader and lover of wild places. Fascinated by behavioural biases.

On the financial beach
Joined April 2014
Replying to @paulkrugman
This is the 1st cited reference I have received from a Nobel Laureate and I will wear it with pride, even if just twitter. Thx!
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Attn @BBC and media folk. See below. V important as most folks look at absolute house price and assume affordability from that. And this shows that affordability was greatest when people were complaining most about unaffordability when the prices were highest.
House Prices vs Mortgage Rates vs Wages You can see the rates shock in 2022 impacting affordability negatively, then wage growth helps it recover. In the last few months, the rise in rates has dominated wages and affordability has slightly worsened.
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Polemic Paine retweeted
House Prices vs Mortgage Rates vs Wages You can see the rates shock in 2022 impacting affordability negatively, then wage growth helps it recover. In the last few months, the rise in rates has dominated wages and affordability has slightly worsened.
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Taken literally, any free and fair result is a win for democracy. Leaders don't use the phrase literally, though. It's diplomatic code to signal a preference. Lula is a vocal critic of Trump, and his win comes as relief to those worried about growing US influence in Latin America. Carney and von der Leyen would hardly have used the same words about a Flávio win.
Congratulations to my friend @LulaOficial on his electoral victory. Democracy and multilateralism have won in Brazil. Europe’s partnership with Brazil is thriving. We will remain by your side for the years to come. Together we will keep working closely for free and open trade. A rules-based global order. And strong ambitions for our climate.
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Polemic Paine retweeted
Home Assitant solved it for me Today's post - Home Automation - Waking Up in the Skip polemicpaine.substack.com/p/… Part 3 of the Home Assistant saga The cruel realisation when ending up deeper down a rabbit hole, you warned against going down, than you thought the rabbit hole went. Crash Bang Wallop.
Clocks go back tonight. So instead of waking at 5am and wondering what to do until 7, I'll now be waking at 4am wondering what to do 'til 7. Great.
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Home Assitant solved it for me Today's post - Home Automation - Waking Up in the Skip polemicpaine.substack.com/p/… Part 3 of the Home Assistant saga The cruel realisation when ending up deeper down a rabbit hole, you warned against going down, than you thought the rabbit hole went. Crash Bang Wallop.
Clocks go back tonight. So instead of waking at 5am and wondering what to do until 7, I'll now be waking at 4am wondering what to do 'til 7. Great.
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Clocks go back tonight. So instead of waking at 5am and wondering what to do until 7, I'll now be waking at 4am wondering what to do 'til 7. Great.
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So... what now?
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Not many wildfires today.
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Today's more serious post Has the Hybrid War Begun polemicpaine.substack.com/p/… On the clues, the past, the psychology of panic and reaction to government instruction.
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Today's Post - Music time! Britannia’s in the Red - A Song for Britain. Factories shipped east. Lectures sent with them. Every crisis gets a quango and a review. They pour concrete. We pour tea. polemicpaine.substack.com/p/…
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Today's Post - Music time! Britannia’s in the Red - A Song for Britain. Factories shipped east. Lectures sent with them. Every crisis gets a quango and a review. They pour concrete. We pour tea. polemicpaine.substack.com/p/… soundcloud.com/polemic-paine…
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Polemic Paine retweeted
🇬🇧 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct) $GBP Actual: -24 Forecast: -14 Previous: -13
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The commentariat have gone very quiet on bond yields. Looks as thought the BBC gilt buy signal worked a treat.
BBC have found their victim. Buy Gilt signal. Radio 4 have noticed interest rates have gone up - had Pia from Wales on moaning that her fixed rate 2% coming to an end and it’s now 6% so how is she expected to cope/friends having to sell/ blah blah blah and the lively interviewer in a soft caring voices suggested that maybe Trump would get hosed in the mid terms and rates might soften.. Jeeez.
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Polemic Paine retweeted
SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios. The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios. Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said. Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior. Read my latest for Axios here: axios.com/2026/10/22/ai-agen…
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Today's Post Baudrillard and the Casino Test polemicpaine.substack.com/p/… Hedge funds post huge P&L swings without a ripple on the surface of stock markets. So what exactly are they trading? Each new derivative takes them a floor further down, stretching ever further from day-to-day reality. Down there they just pass the parcel to each other, all wrapped in wide spreads and provider fees. If it blows up you hope it's so deep it doesn't reach the surface, rather than blowing out the foundations to the whole building.
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Nice to see the UK is one of the 'E3 nations'
Regional Four countries, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia will meet E3 nations, UK, France and Germany on Friday in Istanbul. Pretty significant recognition for the R4. It indicates that Europeans take the platform seriously.
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Business idea. Set up a utility co VIP service. You send an expert with the patience of a saint round to the user's home to sit in front of their computer and phones to talk to the utility co at the other end for hours to sort out the problem. And no, AI can't do it.
Special message for anyone senior at @EE and @bt_uk Your merger is the most mismanaged operation as far as user accounts go I have ever known. So far 15 hours of phone calls to migrate Broadband and Phone accounts including face video scans. Just so you can merge YOUR companies. Your staff are great but your systems let them down terribly. You could not do more to encourage everyone to switch to Starlink. If you want a case study for your management training do get in touch.
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Special message for anyone senior at @EE and @bt_uk Your merger is the most mismanaged operation as far as user accounts go I have ever known. So far 15 hours of phone calls to migrate Broadband and Phone accounts including face video scans. Just so you can merge YOUR companies. Your staff are great but your systems let them down terribly. You could not do more to encourage everyone to switch to Starlink. If you want a case study for your management training do get in touch.
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Polemic Paine retweeted
My @thetimes column: An incredible tale of how an ancient royal charter charity founded to look after London’s bridges was hijacked by left-wing causes We may not have feral youth on the street, but make no mistake: this is looting With @lfg_uk times-comment.com/3b6d00ae
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