@PollTracker2024
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Tracks polls in upcoming elections. US political news aggregator + posts polls and election results. Occasional political commentary. Non-partisan.
Joined August 2024
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NYT/Siena poll | 10/12-10/19 LV
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 52% (+1)
🟥Republican 41% (-2)
——
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 59% (no change)
✅Approve 36% (-2)
(Change from | 9/8-9/13 LV)
nytimes.com/2026/10/21/upsho…
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 retweeted
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14
US House 2026 | Montana’s 1st congressional district
(Trump +11 | 2024)
🟦Sam Forstag 50%
🟥Aaron Flint 46%
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 retweeted
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14 LV
US House 2026 | North Carolina’s 11th congressional district (Trump +9 | 2024)
🟦Jamie Ager 56%
🟥Jennifer Balkcom 43%
——
US Senate North Carolina 2026 (NC-11)
🟦Roy Cooper +15 (54-39-3)
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 retweeted
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14
US House 2026 | Michigan’s 7th congressional district
(Trump +1, Barrett +4)
🟦William Lawrence 53%
🟥Tom Barrett 45% (incumbent)
——
US Senate Michigan (MI-7)
🟦El-Sayed +11 (52-41)
—
Michigan Governor (MI-7)
🟦Benson +13 (53-40)
Politico: Peter Thiel Breaks with Trump Over Iran War
Billionaire technology investor Peter Thiel said he’s skeptical of the U.S. war with Iran and does not believe the United States should have launched it, putting the major Republican donor at odds with President Donald Trump over one of the administration’s defining foreign policy decisions
Thiel: “I’m skeptical of the war, I think we should not have done it. There were a lot of mistakes that were made.”
politico.com/news/2026/10/21…
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 retweeted
.@KareemRifai says the allegations against a gay, closeted US Senator are an “October surprise” that will shake up a Senate race.
NewsNation: President Trump hints that US military action against Iran could happen before the midterms.
“Most people seem to think it’s after the election… we’re gonna see what happens.”
Image credit: @LibbeyDean_
Those Emerson polls and the NYT/Siena poll from Texas are the worst batch of polls I’ve seen for the GOP this cycle.
If you type in jimrisch.com this webpage appears.
Jim Risch is the Senator from Idaho who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
.@KareemRifai says the allegations against a gay, closeted US Senator are an “October surprise” that will shake up a Senate race.
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14
US House 2026 | Florida's 14th congressional district
(Trump +11 | 2024)
🟦Kathy Castor 48% (incumbent)
🟥Mike Beltran 43%
——
US Senate Florida 2026 (FL-14)
🟥Ashley Moody +2 (44-42)
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14 LV
US House 2026 | Arkansas’ 2nd congressional district (Trump +16 | 2024)
🟥French Hill 52% (incumbent)
🟦Chris Jones 48%
——
US Senate Arkansas 2026 (AR-02)
🟥Tom Cotton +3 (48-45)
In case you’re wondering where I just found all those polls:
Here's the link. we're going to try not to make too much content only for paid subscribers, but since we did have to pay for the polls, we went ahead and did it here.
pollvault.substack.com/p/lev…
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14 LV
US House 2026 | Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district
(Trump +8, Rob Bresnahan +2 | 2024)
🟦Paige Cognetti 52%
🟥Rob Bresnahan 48% (incumbent)
——
Pennsylvania Governor 2026 (PA-08)
🟦Josh Shapiro +12 (53-41)
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14
US House 2026 | Texas’ 35th congressional district
(Trump +11 | 2024)
🟦Johnny Garcia 51%
🟥Carlos De La Cruz 49%
——
US Senate Texas 2026 (TX-35)
🟦James Talarico +4 (50-46)
—
Texas Governor 2026 (TX-35)
Tied [48-48]
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14 LV
US House 2026 | Iowa’s 2nd congressional district
(Trump +10 | 2024)
🟦Lindsay James 50%
🟥Joe Mitchell 47%
——
US Senate Iowa 2026
🟦Josh Turek +4 (50-46)
—
Iowa Governor 2026
🟦Rob Sand +13 (54-41)
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14
US House 2026 | Arizona’s 2nd congressional district
(Trump +15 | 2024)
🟦Jonathan Nez 50%
🟥Eli Crane 48% (incumbent)
——
Arizona Governor 2026 (AZ-02)
🟥Andy Biggs +3
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14
US House 2026 | Michigan’s 7th congressional district
(Trump +1, Barrett +4)
🟦William Lawrence 53%
🟥Tom Barrett 45% (incumbent)
——
US Senate Michigan (MI-7)
🟦El-Sayed +11 (52-41)
—
Michigan Governor (MI-7)
🟦Benson +13 (53-40)
PollVault/Emerson poll | 10/12-10/14 LV
US House 2026 | North Carolina’s 11th congressional district (Trump +9 | 2024)
🟦Jamie Ager 56%
🟥Jennifer Balkcom 43%
——
US Senate North Carolina 2026 (NC-11)
🟦Roy Cooper +15 (54-39-3)