Macro & Technical Markets : High-conviction analysis, scenario planning, edge through data + positioning. Not investment advice.
Salt Lake City, UT
Joined May 2022
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Introducing the new Polycarp Research Platform 📊
Find the best setups in the market with live dashboards of risk and opportunities, seasonal paths and technicals, and that isn't even the warm up. 👇
The trial is totally free, let me know what you think and hope you enjoy, cheers 🍿 (direct link in the comments)
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
First of many seasonal tailwinds for the S&P 500 begins tomorrow! The 8 trading day period, from 5 days before to 3 days after midterm elections, is incredibly bullish.
Since 1950, $SPX has gained in 18 of 19 instances, with a median return of +2.7%.
ALT Bluekurtic Market Insights heatmap showing S&P 500 performance from 5 trading days before to 3 trading days after U.S. midterm elections since 1950. The S&P 500 posted positive returns in 18 of 19 instances (94.7%), with an average gain of 2.8% and a median gain of 2.7%. The table also displays historical returns, maximum losses, and drawdowns for each midterm election year.
FOMC, PCE, GDP, Megacap Earnings, and any random event such as a Brazilian or French crisis. It’s volatility season. $VIX
$EWZ Brazil has hit its circuit breaker on 20 days since 1997, the S&P fell on 18 of them @fxevolution
$SPY
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
Per Citadel, yesterday was the 7th largest call-buying sessions on record among retail (and the largest in 2 years since January of 2025)
Meanwhile institutional options activity was overwhelmingly defensive, with clients monetizing and rolling downside hedges, noting little appetite to buy the dip
Polycarp Market Research retweeted
S&P 500 sector valuations... Staples almost 4 multiples pricier than Tech
Health Care at a premium to I.T. too @factset
Biotech setups with upcoming catalyst can be a gift 🎁 during overall market pullbacks $XBI
Here are a few 🧵
$CYTK Nov. 14 FDA target date (MAPLE-HCM label update, monotherapy vs. metoprolol), Q3 on Nov. 4, nHCM sNDA filing in Q4. ACACIA worked where Bristol's ODYSSEY failed. Base $65 vs. a $105 Street average.
$BBIO — Nov. 27 PDUFA, Q3 on Oct. 29. FORTIFY: placebo slowed 0.10 m/s, treated patients gained. The stock trades on Attruby's switch-pool commentary; BBP-418 is the free option. Whole-company base $63.
$COGT — Nov. 30 PDUFA (GIST) and a second one Dec. 30 (non-advanced SM), with advanced SM on Jun. 29, 2027. PEAK doubled PFS where ripretinib couldn't beat sunitinib. Base $32, roughly the price; bull $82.
