MSc Computer Science grad & Analyst using data & AI to beat the market | Well-Researched +EV Props | ⚽️ 🏀 🏈
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14-0 NUCLEAR RUN 🔥☢️
Nic Claxton UNDER 11.5 Rebs ✅
Miles Bridges UNDER 11.5 Rebs + Asts ✅
Aaron Gordon OVER 9.5 Rebs + Asts ✅
Bobby Portis OVER 8.5 Rebs ✅
Jalen Williams UNDER 4.5 Asts ✅
Kylian Mbappé UNDER 2 SOT ✅
Leon Goretzka OVER 1.5 Tackles ✅
Toni Kroos UNDER 65.5 PA ✅
Nahuel Molina OVER 1.5 Tackles ✅
Clint Capela OVER 10.5 Rebounds ✅
Coby White OVER 7.5 Rebs + Asts ✅
Miles Bridges UNDER 12.5 Rebs + Asts ✅
Tre Jones UNDER 7.5 Assists ✅
Shai G. Alexander UNDER 11.5 Rebs + Asts ✅
We’ve been on an absolute heater, in 2 days we’ve hit 14 consecutive plays. We put a ton of hours into research for you guys, so please show us some support if you’re liking our content. We’re just getting started 💪
TOP POINTS PROJECTION 🔝
NBA Prop #2 🏀
Ajay Mitchell OVER 13.5 Points
❤️ FOR MORE PROPS
Great spot for Mitchell here after JDub & Cason Wallace went down injured today. Should put him into a much larger role on the offense.
Without JDub last season he was over in 19/29 and is coming fresh off an 18 point game here.
Just saw the Suns allow Brandon Williams 20 points & Melton 25 in their last game as well. We saw Mitchell have a ton of volume in their playoff series against the Suns last season.
Pondering Picks ♠️ retweeted
AD WILL FEAST ☢️
🏀 NBA Dish #1 (10/26)
🍽️ 𝐀𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐧𝐲 𝐃𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐬 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟐𝟑.𝟓 𝐏𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 + 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐬 (−𝟏𝟐𝟎)
Cooked w/ @KBProps 🤝 @PonderingPicks
LIKE IF TAILING ❤️
- Looks like the books are still disrespecting AD here, as we’re somehow still getting this low of a line for him against a pretty solid matchup. Let me explain why we’re backing the Brow today.
- AD started off the season very hot, dropping 34 points along with 4 assists in 34 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks. Last game, he barely missed this line with 23 PA against the Bulls.
- Honestly, hit rates aren’t even what I’m looking at in both of these games. It’s actually his FGA volume that caught my eye. He took 20 and 21 shots in those games, which honestly makes this line look so silly.
- The #1 overall pick for the Wizards this year, AJ Dybantsa, still remains to make his NBA debut and has already been ruled out for today’s game. AD should continue to see the usage and volume he’s been seeing.
- With 20+ FGA, he’s over this line in 26 of his last 30 games while averaging 33 PA per game. The books are giving us around a 17.5 FGA line for him, so they’re definitely expecting good volume from him as well.
- AD has absolutely DOMINATED the Hornets in his career, as he’s over this line in his last 7 STRAIGHT games against them. Dating back to 2014, he has gone over this line in 13 of his last 14 games against Charlotte.
- We’ve also already seen forwards and big men like Julius Randle drop 33 points and 7 assists in his Nets debut and Bam Adebayo drop 20 points and 4 assists against the Hornets this season.
- Besides the scoring side, we also like the addition of assists here. AD needs just 2+ assists to give us an edge with his PA line since his points line has been bumped up to 21.5. He’s currently -400 on FanDuel to record 2 assists.
- Love this spot for AD today to continue seeing a high amount of usage and volume and dominate this Hornets team once again like he has in the past. He might honestly clear this line in points alone.
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BACK THE BROW 📈
NBA Prop #1 🏀
Anthony Davis OVER 23.5 Pts + Asts
❤️ IF BACKING AD
Collab With @KBProps & @PropKitchen 🤝
KB ✍️ :
Looks like the books are still disrespecting AD here as we’re still somehow getting this low of lines for him against a pretty solid matchup. Let me explain why we’re backing the Brow tomorrow.
AD started off the season very hot as he dropped 34 points along with 4 assists in 34 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks. Last game he barely missed this line with 23 PA against the Bulls.
Honestly hit rates aren’t even what I’m looking at in both these games but it’s actually his FGA volume that caught my eye. In both games he took 20 and 21 shots which honestly just makes this line look so silly.
The #1 overall pick for the Wizards this year AJ Dybansta still remains to make his NBA debut and has already been ruled out for tomorrow’s game. AD should continue to see the usage and volume he’s been seeing.
With 20+ FGA he’s over this line in his last 26/30 games averaging 33 PA per game and the books are giving us around a 17.5 FGA line for him so they’re definitely expecting good volume from him as well.
AD has absolutely DOMINATED the Hornets in his career as he’s over this line in his last 7 STRAIGHT games versus them and since 2014 has gone over this line in his last 13/14 games against them.
We’ve also already seen Forwards and big men like Julius Randle drop 33 points and 7 assists in his Nets debut and Bam Adebayo drop 20 points and 4 assists against the Hornets this season.
Besides the scoring side we also like the addition of assists here as AD needs just 2+ assists to make us have an edge with his PA line since his points line has been bumped up to 21.5. He’s currently -400 odds on Fanduel to get 2 assists
Love this spot for AD tomorrow to continue to see a high amount of usage, volume and dominate this Hornets team once again like he has in the past. He might honestly clear this line just alone in points tomorrow.
NFL Card Recap Oct 25th 🏈
Andre Szymt OVER 1.5 FGM ✅
Kyren Williams OVER 65.5 Rush Yds ✅
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 79.5 Rec Yds ❌
2-1 day, Chase had a bad game script with Ravens dominating TOP 1H and then the blowout 2nd half but was also a Tee Higgins day.
Kyren Williams OVER 65.5 Rush Yds ✅
Cash 💰 Loved the read on this one
TOP RUSH YDS PROJECTION 🔝
NFL Prop #1 🏈
Kyren Williams OVER 65.5 Rush Yds
❤️ IF TAILING
Rams receiving core looks to be potentially extremely lacking for Sunday with Adams, Ferguson & now potentially Nacua out after he left practice with a calf injury Thursday.
Therefore, would not be surprising to see Rams lean more on their ground game here.
McVay himself also said after the last game that he would like to be more balanced when asked about the high passing rate of the Rams offense.
Kyren himself also has some words after last game saying, “Probably because I’m not out there” in response to the team’s inconsistency on offense. Kyren has a point with the data clearly pointing to the Rams being a better team when he’s playing and seeing the ball.
Raiders should also be a great matchup. They are allowing the 2nd most yards per game to running backs and the 2nd most YPC.
Rams also still 3.5 point favorites so hopefully increases the chance of a running game script.
Andre Szymt OVER 1.5 FGM ✅
Cash it 💰 Doinked a 43 yarder but comes back to kick the game winner.
We continue to cook on these kicker props
TOP FGM PROJECTION 🔝
NFL Prop #2 🏈
Andre Szymt OVER 1.5 FGM
❤️ FOR MORE PROPS
Good spot for the Browns to hit some FG’s here.
Szymt is over this line in 5/6 on the season including 5 straight. Hes been a solid kicker for the Browns these last 2 seasons.
Kickers against the Titans have hit this line in 4/6 with 2+ attempts in 5/6. They have allowed the 3rd most FGA on the season.
Browns have struggled in the redzone having the 3rd worst redzone TD percentage which can set up well for FG’s. Titans defence aren’t complete slouches either so they can get stops.
Also think the Browns defense can put them in good positions against a bad Titans offense.
Weather in Nashville also looks good and Browns are 2.5 point favorites so hopefully should be able to settle for FG’s.
NFL Card Week 7 🏈
Andre Szymt OVER 1.5 FGM
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 79.5 Rec Yds
Kyren Williams OVER 65.5 Rush Yds
❤️ IF TAILING ANY
TOP REC YDS PROJECTION 🔝
NFL Prop #3 🏈
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 79.5 Rec Yds
❤️ IF TAILING
Backing Chase in this one. Chase hasn’t had an explosive season so far but I think a lot of that has come down to injuries and matchups.
Now he gets a good matchup against the Ravens who are allowing the 6th most yards to WRs this season.
A lot of WR1’s have crushed this line against them: London (118), Tate (145), Lamb (112), Olave (86).
Historically this is also a matchup Chase has absolutely owned going for 110+ yards against them in the last 4 meetings.
With Lamar out the Bengals are now 3.5 point favorites but I still think Burrow slings it here.
These kind of division matchups tend to be close & Ravens have a solid run defence as well with the Bengals not having had a great ground game this year.
Pondering Picks ♠️ retweeted
TOP FGM PROJECTION 🔝
NFL Prop #2 🏈
Andre Szymt OVER 1.5 FGM
❤️ FOR MORE PROPS
Good spot for the Browns to hit some FG’s here.
Szymt is over this line in 5/6 on the season including 5 straight. Hes been a solid kicker for the Browns these last 2 seasons.
Kickers against the Titans have hit this line in 4/6 with 2+ attempts in 5/6. They have allowed the 3rd most FGA on the season.
Browns have struggled in the redzone having the 3rd worst redzone TD percentage which can set up well for FG’s. Titans defence aren’t complete slouches either so they can get stops.
Also think the Browns defense can put them in good positions against a bad Titans offense.
Weather in Nashville also looks good and Browns are 2.5 point favorites so hopefully should be able to settle for FG’s.
Pondering Picks ♠️ retweeted
TOP RUSH YDS PROJECTION 🔝
NFL Prop #1 🏈
Kyren Williams OVER 65.5 Rush Yds
❤️ IF TAILING
Rams receiving core looks to be potentially extremely lacking for Sunday with Adams, Ferguson & now potentially Nacua out after he left practice with a calf injury Thursday.
Therefore, would not be surprising to see Rams lean more on their ground game here.
McVay himself also said after the last game that he would like to be more balanced when asked about the high passing rate of the Rams offense.
Kyren himself also has some words after last game saying, “Probably because I’m not out there” in response to the team’s inconsistency on offense. Kyren has a point with the data clearly pointing to the Rams being a better team when he’s playing and seeing the ball.
Raiders should also be a great matchup. They are allowing the 2nd most yards per game to running backs and the 2nd most YPC.
Rams also still 3.5 point favorites so hopefully increases the chance of a running game script.
NBA Card Recap Oct 25th 🏀
Alperen Sengun OVER 8.5 Rebounds ✅
Yaxel Lendeborg OVER 20.5 PA ✅
Tyrese Maxey OVER 5.5 Assists ❌
Norman Powell OVER 22.5 PA ❌
2-2, Sengun comes through late after a good start to end at 10. Lendeborg comes through to end the 3rd. Read injury report well on Maxey but ends with 4, Powell comes close with 21. Poor shooting from him but didn’t quite get the volume we wanted either.
Pondering Picks ♠️ retweeted
Alperen Sengun “O” 8.5 Rebounds (-130) ✅
collab winner w/ @PonderingPicks
Sengun gets it done for us late in the 4Q after grabbing 6 early! Finishes with 10 rebounds.
🏀 NBA SATURDAY BEST PLAY #2:
collab w/ @PonderingPicks 🤔
Alperen Sengun “O” 8.5 Rebounds (-130)
Played: ESPN BET | Bet: 1u
• Sengun is over this line in 1/2 games this season averaging exactly 8.5 rebounds per game, but his only miss came against the Spurs in his last game (7) vs a super tough matchup for Centers because of Wemby.
• When Sengun faces this Hawks team, he ALWAYS finds a way to get 9+ rebounds as he’s over in his L5/5 (100%) of meetings vs them averaging 10 rebounds per game along with 17+ rebound chances in each. Adams is also OUT for this one.
• The Hawks are also allowing the 5th MOST rebounds per game (15.5) to opposing Centers & rank 9th WORST defensively to Sengun’s main rebound share%, which comes from the Restricted Area (50% of his boards).
• In no world do the Hawks have the guys to maintain Sengun from getting 9+ boards in this one, and we’re getting a close 1.5 point spread favoring the Hawks in this one - should see Sengun get full minutes with tons of rebounding volume to cash us out!
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TOP FGM PROJECTION 🔝
NFL Prop #2 🏈
Andre Szymt OVER 1.5 FGM
❤️ FOR MORE PROPS
Good spot for the Browns to hit some FG’s here.
Szymt is over this line in 5/6 on the season including 5 straight. Hes been a solid kicker for the Browns these last 2 seasons.
Kickers against the Titans have hit this line in 4/6 with 2+ attempts in 5/6. They have allowed the 3rd most FGA on the season.
Browns have struggled in the redzone having the 3rd worst redzone TD percentage which can set up well for FG’s. Titans defence aren’t complete slouches either so they can get stops.
Also think the Browns defense can put them in good positions against a bad Titans offense.
Weather in Nashville also looks good and Browns are 2.5 point favorites so hopefully should be able to settle for FG’s.
NBA Card Oct 24th 🏀
Tyrese Maxey OVER 5.5 Assists
Norman Powell OVER 22.5 Pts + Asts
Alperen Sengun OVER 8.5 Rebounds
Yaxel Lendeborg OVER 20.5 Pts + Asts
❤️ IF TAILING ANY
TRUST THE ROOKIE 👶
NBA Prop #4 🏀
Yaxel Lendeborg OVER 20.5 Pts + Asts
❤️ IF TAILING
Backing the rookie here as the Warriors come into this one with no Podz and also likely no Curry.
He’s put up 14 & 24 PA in his 2 games so far with 11 FGA in each and 12 FTA yesterday. Low minutes first game too with the blowout.
Expecting his volume to tick up today with the Warriors likely absences. If Curry sits he could easily be the first option.
Yaxel himself also said after yesterday’s game that he’s going to have to be more aggressive in this one.
Some blowout potential here but Suns certainly didn’t impress first game. They are also missing depth amongst their big men so could make it easier for Yaxel to score inside.
GET THIS MAN IN YOUR SLIPS 🔥
NBA Prop #3 🏀
Norman Powell OVER 22.5 Pts + Asts
❤️ IF TAILING
Backing Powell here as the number one option in the Bulls. Had 26 PA yesterday after just 16 in the opener.
First game was a tough matchup against the Raptors in a blowout. Yesterday he got the usage of a number one guy seeing 20 FGA. Didn’t shoot well (7/20) but still easily cleared this number.
Think he should see good volume here again against a Wizards team that shouldn’t be a good defensive unit.
There is a 1.5 point spread here so hopefully a close game. Also very high O/U of 244.5 so should be plenty of scoring.
TOP REBOUNDS PROJECTION 🔝
NBA Prop #2 🏀
Alperen Sengun OVER 8.5 Rebounds
❤️ IF BACKING SENGUN 🇹🇷
Collab With @coleyscashes 🤝
Coley ✍️:
• Sengun is over this line in 1/2 games this season averaging exactly 8.5 rebounds per game, but his only miss came against the Spurs in his last game (7) vs a super tough matchup for Centers because of Wemby.
• When Sengun faces this Hawks team, he ALWAYS finds a way to get 9+ rebounds as he’s over in his L5/5 (100%) of meetings vs them averaging 10 rebounds per game along with 17+ rebound chances in each.
• The Hawks are also allowing the 5th MOST rebounds per game (15.5) to opposing Centers & rank 9th WORST defensively to Sengun’s main rebound share%, which comes from the Restricted Area (50% of his boards).
• Steven Adams is also sitting here with the Rockets on a B2B giving Sengun less competition for center minutes
• In no world do the Hawks have the guys to maintain Sengun from getting 9+ boards in this one, and we’re getting a close 1.5 point spread favoring the Hawks in this one - should see Sengun get full minutes with tons of rebounding volume to cash us out!
Pondering Picks ♠️ retweeted
TOP ASSISTS PROJECTION 🔝
NBA Prop #1 🏀
Tyrese Maxey OVER 5.5 Assists
❤️ FOR MORE PROPS
Backing Maxey here who is over in 1/2 this season with 5 & 6 assist performances. Leads the 76ers in passes made and is averaging 12.5 potentials.
A reason I like this is due to the upside of LeBron potentially sitting out. 76ers are starting a B2B and LeBron has been marked questionable. Embiid doesn’t have an injury designation so seems like a good chance he plays tomorrow and sits Sunday with LeBron doing the opposite.
With Embiid last season, Maxey was over in 28/35 games. Jaylen Brown can take some usage but Maxey should still be the main playmaker here.
Bucks matchup also seems perfect. They seemed to have continued the trend from last year of being an assist funnel so far. We saw Giddey get 9 & Tre Jones get 8 today. In the first game Trae Young had 13.
Definitely some blowout concern but trusting Maxey to get it done early enough for us.
TOP RUSH YDS PROJECTION 🔝
NFL Prop #1 🏈
Kyren Williams OVER 65.5 Rush Yds
❤️ IF TAILING
Rams receiving core looks to be potentially extremely lacking for Sunday with Adams, Ferguson & now potentially Nacua out after he left practice with a calf injury Thursday.
Therefore, would not be surprising to see Rams lean more on their ground game here.
McVay himself also said after the last game that he would like to be more balanced when asked about the high passing rate of the Rams offense.
Kyren himself also has some words after last game saying, “Probably because I’m not out there” in response to the team’s inconsistency on offense. Kyren has a point with the data clearly pointing to the Rams being a better team when he’s playing and seeing the ball.
Raiders should also be a great matchup. They are allowing the 2nd most yards per game to running backs and the 2nd most YPC.
Rams also still 3.5 point favorites so hopefully increases the chance of a running game script.