clips + life

Somewhere in the world
Joined October 2022
Zendaya says she wore million dollar earrings thinking they were fake and woke up to news articles about it: "I went to a premiere and I had these earrings, they were big beautiful earrings and I thought they were fake to be honest with you." "There was this article that came out the next day that was like, 'Zendaya wears million dollar earrings.' And I was like, Law, did you put me in million dollar earrings last night? He was like, 'Mmm, probably.'" "Long story short, they're not mine, I gave them back, and yeah. Probably never happening again because I was so stressed."
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Greeny and Craig discuss rumors of a Hyperliquid Season 3 airdrop funded by unallocated reserves: Greeny: "Hyperliquid still has 38.9% unallocated, officially reserved for future community rewards, which is where a Season 3 allocation would come from." "Prediction markets are currently pricing in a one in three chance of another airdrop happening in 2026 or 2027." Craig: "That would be massive for the market. Even if I do not get a huge allocation personally, I want everyone else to get paid because degens will take that capital and immediately pump it back into the market."
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Greeny breaks down fomo's new internal bridge rollout and major crosschain speed upgrades: Greeny: "fomo introduced the fastest crosschain swaps on the market, with transactions landing in under one second." "The public rollout of fomo bridge is live across chains like BNB, Solana, Base, and Robinhood Chain." "Execution is 43% faster on the sell side for BNB, 43% faster on the buy side for Base, and 21% faster on the sell side for Robinhood Chain." "They fixed latency issues by building their own internal bridge and router rather than relying strictly on third parties, which cuts execution delay and helps limit slippage."
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Greeny and Craig debate whether $XMR or $ZEC wins the privacy meta as Monero pumps 20%: Greeny: "Monero is up 20% weekly, but getting your hands on $XMR is far more difficult compared to $ZEC." "Does the lack of accessibility become bearish for Monero, making Zcash the easier route, or does Monero run because criminals actually use it?" Craig: "It kills me that I have not bought Monero because it actually works, and I wonder if it starts its own meta. The issue is where to buy it since centralized exchange access is limited, but KuCoin, MEXC, Kraken, and HTX still show volume." "It is a tricky trade and getting hands on it is annoying, but I feel Monero is going to have a massive run simply because privacy is becoming essential again."
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Craig and Greeny break down why nearly 100 VC backed crypto protocols shut down after failing to generate real revenue: Craig: "Between 80 and 100 crypto projects have collapsed, with DeFiLlama counting around 100 shutdowns and 40 closing in just the last 90 days." "DeFi, infrastructure, and Web3 gaming got hit hardest, including big names like Blast, Balancer, Radiant Capital, and Neon." "These teams raised massive VC rounds, but the moment their products hit the market, there was zero product market fit and no real revenue. When the treasury dried up, they were forced to shut down. VCs cash out and leave, leaving retail holding the bag." "This is why we focus on protocols with real cash flow and actual users, like Hyperliquid. Projects that build real businesses, generate revenue, and run buybacks and burns survive, while hype driven protocols without income get wiped out."
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Greeny and Craig debate whether Robinhood Chain season 2 runs on existing plays or needs a completely new narrative to kick off: Greeny: "Is Robinhood Chain season 2 going to be led by AI tokens like CashCat and Pons, or does it take an entirely new wave of ideas?" Craig: "I think it needs something new. Season 2 cannot kick off with people just going back to buy the same old stuff, that is not exciting. We need something to invigorate the market again." "It is going to be a new meta, a new narrative, maybe a ponzi of some sort, or another big coin. Retail is not going to show up to run back old plays."
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Craig and Greeny explain why the next onchain bull run could dwarf previous cycles despite recent short term pain: Craig: "I do not think that was the onchain bull run. We are going to have a Bitcoin run, an altcoin run, and then an onchain run that is ginormous." "This volume data actually makes me believe the next onchain cycle is going to be massive." Greeny: "I agree, but we are just a touch early. Majors need to chop sideways and Bitcoin probably needs a couple more months to reset and grind before we see real continuation."
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Greeny breaks down why $BTC risks dumping toward $77k if this low timeframe range breaks: Greeny: "We rejected the golden pocket as clean as you can get when the stochastic was in the 80th percentile, then wicked straight into a four hour order block." "Whether we can reverse from here is the big question because this is our low timeframe range." "If we lose the bottom of this range, it starts breaking us down back toward 77k or 78k, definitely a move below 80k. That is where I start to see significant value again."
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Greeny admits onchain trading took a hit and explains why less is more right now: Greeny: "Onchain I really thought was back, but I took some losses this morning and I am down 10% on my fomo portfolio over the past couple days." "That further proves that less is more right now." "I scalp and swing trade a little bit, but I only look to DCA into spot on deep pullbacks like $ZEC, $NEAR around $4 or $4.50, and $VVV back to 20. Ultimately, sitting at breakeven shows you do not need to overtrade. Sometimes just playing the patience game is the move."
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Craig explains why the AI trade selloff might not drag Bitcoin down with it: Craig: "AI trades are unwinding hard right now, with Asian markets and equities taking a beating after crazy runs." "But crypto did not pump alongside the AI bubble or equities, so I am not convinced it is going to crash with them either." "While equities dropped, Bitcoin actually did the opposite and pushed higher. I think they are in completely different cycles, and Bitcoin already put in its worst back at the 58k or 59k bottom." "Macro is connected, but the fear that an AI pullback will automatically nuke crypto is way overblown."
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Craig breaks down historical data showing why Bitcoin faces post midterm pain before massive upside: Craig: "Since 1950 the S&P500 has been higher 12 months after every single midterm, 19 out of 19 with an average return around 15%. But Bitcoin tells a wilder story." "In 2014 it chopped lower then recovered. In 2018 it halved to 3.2k within weeks, then went on a 45% collapse. In 2022 FTX collapsed days after the midterms, followed by a 90% rally a year later." "Every single time there has been brutal pain right after the midterms before a massive recovery. There is probably going to be serious pain before there is any pleasure."
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Greeny and Craig break down how everyday inflation quietly tripled living expenses over the last decade: Greeny: "Back in college around 2014 or 2015, I spent 50 to 100 dollars a week on groceries as a single guy." "Today my wife and I struggle to keep it under 300 dollars. That is a 3x increase in ten years." "A loaf of bread is five to six dollars,milk is up, and egg cartons are hitting eight to ten dollars, which is completely absurd." Craig: "Inflation is rampant and way more aggressive than it used to be. For our family with a kid, groceries run about 400 to 500 dollars a week, and that is without buying anything fancy."
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Greeny warns Bitcoin is setting up a macro distribution that could retest $76k: Greeny: "The four hour order block at the bottom of this range has held price above 80.7k cleanly, but if that breaks we move down to 78k or 76k. When you look at the weekly stochastic, this is technically a distribution above the high." "People expecting an impulsive breakout right now are dreaming. The weekly stochastic is overextended, and the last time we were in the 80th percentile it took 182 days to cool off. That is six months of corrective price action before any real breakout."
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Stef reveals the only two reasons he will cut a losing position: Stef: "One of my biggest weaknesses in trading is not cutting losers fast enough. That is how I lost most of the biggest losses of my trading career." "I like to just cut the position when I lose conviction. When something happens that invalidates my thesis, that is the biggest reason most of the time." "Also when I come to the realization that maybe this meta will not have another flow of capital in the future, that is sometimes when I just cut the dead position because it may not pump again."
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Stef says every crypto token is really just a meme coin in disguise: Stef: "Super utility plays and super techy plays, I do not like. For me, all coins are meme coins and all coins are based on attention." "That is how I trade mostly, and I have made the most with memes." "It is not about betting on the picture; it is betting on the narrative behind it. It could be the biggest project on a specific chain, the lore might go super deep, or it might have superb backing and influential people interacting with it. Memes are my favorite."
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Stef drops insider alpha on why Cards is not powering Coinbase's Gacha: Stef: "I actually have some insider information about this, so I can drop some alpha. I do not think it is Cards." "I have a friend working at another Pokemon Gacha company who has been in very close contact with Coinbase." "They are working on some things together, and I do not think it is Cards. Unfortunately, I am not following Cards very closely because I do not hold a position, so how priced in it is remains to be seen."
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Swizzle explains why $ANSEM failed to catch the market relief bounce: Swizzle: "Unfortunately for you, nothing happened. Coins are bouncing a little bit today after a really scary weekend, but this token did not get the memo that there is some relief." "I do not know if that is just low volume and lack of mindshare, or if it is because people on the timeline were pissed that he had not mentioned the token in thirty days. Maybe it is as simple as that."
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Swizzle details how altcoins bled out while Bitcoin double tapped 80k during the weekend crash: Swizzle: "Bitcoin retested 80k twice, kind of double tapped 80k." "Each time it tapped 80, it bounced right back up with liquidation flushes both directions between 80k and just short of 83k." "Alts and everything on chain, on the other hand, saw complete downward chop and capitulation while that was happening, with a lot of doom posting all over the timeline." Wood: "He is the one who started the Black Monday stuff. The charts looked horrendous. I nuked and torpedoed a bunch of bags this weekend myself."
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Stef breaks down why following a tiny circle and cutting out KOL noise protects trader psychology: Stef: "For me, I follow a very small circle on fomo. I do not like following every KOL and being flooded with different notifications. That is noise to me; I like to have a clear mind." "I just follow friends that I have known from before, but I also follow people with a similar trading style to mine. For example, Rasmr, you have had him here. He has a very similar trading style to mine: he is a catalyst based trader, and I am basically the same." "I have had this trading style for a while, and that is how I made most of my money for this journey. I resonated a lot with him, and that is how I found him and followed him. I can really go into his mind because we have a very similar trading style."
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Stef says chasing daily metas is a trap: Stef: "Personally I do not like to participate in every meta or trade new pairs every day." "Most of them I skip because they do not have staying power in the future. They are very short lived, and the rotations in today's market are brutal." "For me, the perfect scenario in my head is predicting the meta. I like to have a very deep thinking process where the trade is done in my head before I click any buttons. I try to think where money will flow in the future, into what sectors and industries."
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Stef says buying dead coins before obvious real world events is free money: Stef: "One of the easiest plays that I hit recently was GTA memes. It was a very simple thesis and one of the easiest bets of my life." "Just thinking in the future: what will have hype, what will people talk about, and how do I position?" "I know GTA is one of the biggest events in 2026, and it will command huge mindshare and attention. I thought about this a year ago when there were no coins, but when the meta finally started a month or two ago, I observed the field to see which coin had the advantage to be the main runner." "My edge is buying when a coin or meta is considered dead, but holding the thesis that attention will inevitably return. For me, the GTA meta was completely obvious."
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