Decoding the markets that forecast everything. Research and commentary for those who think in probabilities. Not financial advice.
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Prediction Markets Alert: educational only. Polymarket/Kalshi market prices—not predictions, guarantees, or trade/bet advice. Platforms aren't available everywhere; check local rules. Fine Print weekly in free newsletter → predictionmarketsalert.com. Gambling problem? 1-800-GAMBLER
⚡ Mover update: Fed holding rates in October now 70% on Polymarket, up from 50% at 9:08am ET and 63% at midday
25bp hike: 50% → 30%
Kalshi: hold 48% → 69%, hike 53% → 31%
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Wednesday’s unexpectedly firm inflation report raised the stakes for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, the last scheduled remarks by a Fed official before policymakers go quiet ahead of their Oct. 27-28 meeting
wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-m…
⚡ Mover: Fed holding rates in October 50% → 63% since 9:08am ET (Polymarket)
25bp hike: 50% → 36%
Kalshi: hold 48% → 63%, hike 53% → 37%
Just before the 8:30am CPI print, hold was ~82%.
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Prediction Markets Alert retweeted
Core CPI printed at +0.33% in September, about a tenth of a point higher than most forecasters had anticipated.
The 3-month annualized rate rose to 3.4% from 2% in August.
📊 Odds Board: October Fed hike odds jump 32 pts to 50%
Oct Fed (Poly): hold 50% (−32), 25bp hike 50% (+32) · Kalshi hike 53%
Niculescu next Romania PM: 92% (+31)
WTI hits $100 in Oct: 51% (+17)
Another 2026 Fed hike: 88% (+8)
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Oct FOMC pricing at 12:26pm ET: hold 79.5% on Polymarket, 79% on Kalshi. A 25bp hike sits at 19.5% / 21%, with Kalshi up from 17% at 9:16am ET.
Market prices, not advice.
Fed governor Chris Waller addresses the White House's challenges to Fed independence during an interview with Bloomberg's @SalehaMohsin:
"There is a threat to Fed independence by the administration. So far, it hasn't really succeeded.... I'm hoping that that continues."
⚡ Mover: WTI crude hitting $95 in October 74% → 86% since 9:16am ET (Polymarket)
$100 in October: 34% → 43%
Front-month WTI futures touched ~$94.30 intraday.
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Oct 28 FOMC pricing as Cleveland Fed's Hammack backs smaller, quicker policy moves:
Hold: Polymarket 79.5% | Kalshi 80%
+25bp hike: Polymarket 19.5% | Kalshi 19%
Hold was 82.5% / 84% at 9:20am ET.
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said smaller, more frequent adjustments to policy can help inflation expectations remain anchored, but she stopped short of backing a rate increase this month. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
📊 Odds Board: WTI $95 odds jump 21 pts to 85% for October
WTI hits $95 in Oct (Poly): 85% (+21 vs Fri) · $100: 43% (+9)
WTI dips to $85 in Oct: 40% (−23)
Niculescu next Romania PM: 60% (−10)
Oct Fed hold: 83% Poly / 84% Kalshi
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Polymarket odds Lisa Cook is out as Fed Governor: under 1% by Oct 31, 3% by Nov 30, 6% by Dec 31 (as of 3:20pm ET).
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
President Donald Trump formally established a “committee of inquiry” to investigate allegations that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook made false statements related to “one or more mortgage instruments,” the White House announced Friday.
The extraordinary announcement is the latest development in Trump’s long-running effort to fire Cook, a nominee of former President Joe Biden, from the central bank’s board. Trump, who frequently urges the Fed to lower interest rates, recently said the failure to do so by his handpicked chair Kevin Warsh is the fault of a “hostile” board.
Full details: cnb.cx/4if4HDt
Polymarket as of 3:20pm ET: Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by Oct 31 at 1%, by Dec 31 at 18%. US-Iran ceasefire holding through Oct 15 is at 89%, down from 92% at 9:30am ET.
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Tanker attacks in Strait of Hormuz surge to wartime high as Iran tries to choke off oil exports cnbc.com/2026/10/09/iran-war…
Brazil presidential market as of 12:40pm ET: Flávio Bolsonaro 87% on both Polymarket and Kalshi, Lula 14% on Polymarket and 13% on Kalshi.
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro leads incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Brazil’s presidential runoff, a new poll showed bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
⚡ Mover: Luca Niculescu as next Romania PM (Polymarket) 70% → 58% since 9:30am ET
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
📊 Odds Board: WTI $95 odds drop 11 pts to 64% for October
WTI hits $95 in Oct (Poly): 64% (−11 vs Thu) · $100: 34% (−8)
US–Iran ceasefire thru Oct 31: 77% (+7)
Oct Fed hold: 85% Poly / 85% Kalshi
Feijóo next Spain PM: 82% (+5)
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Brazil's runoff on the order books, 1:08pm ET: Flávio Bolsonaro 84% on Polymarket and 85% on Kalshi, with Lula at 15.5% / 16%.
Flávio Bolsonaro said he would work with the US and China if he becomes Brazil’s president, after a surprise election performance left him poised to join a wave of conservative leaders pushing Latin America closer to Washington bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Priced as of 1:08pm ET: October FOMC hold 83.5% on Polymarket, 85% on Kalshi. A December +25bp hike sits at 75.5% / 73%.
The Fed's going to take its time with rate hikes axios.com/2026/10/08/interes…
⚡ Mover: WTI hits $95 in October (Polymarket) 74.5% → 62% since 9:10am ET Odds Board
$100 in October: 42% → 33.5%. Oil upside odds slid in the same ~12:15pm ET window as Trump's no-strike-before-midterms remarks on Iran.
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
⚡ Mover: US–Iran ceasefire holds through Oct 31 (Polymarket) 69.5% → 80.5% since 9:10am ET Odds Board
Jump came ~12:15pm ET as Trump said the US won't attack Iran before the Nov 3 midterms (Reuters). Oct 15: 87.5% → 94.5%.
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
📊 Odds Board: WTI $95 odds climb to 75% for October
WTI hits $95 in Oct (Poly): 75% (+15 vs Wed) · $100: 42% (+10)
US–Iran ceasefire thru Oct 31: 70% (−5)
Dec Fed hike: 76% Poly / 73% Kalshi
Feijóo next Spain PM: 77% (−4)
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Oct FOMC pricing after the minutes: Polymarket 83.5% no change, 15.5% for a 25 bp hike. Kalshi 84% hold, 16% hike. December hike odds sit at 74.5% on Polymarket and 72% on Kalshi.
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
All 19 Fed officials backed the decision in September to raise interest rates, with many supporting the move to guard against the risk of intensifying inflation pressures. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Brazil presidency odds: Polymarket has Flávio Bolsonaro at 85% and Lula at 14.5%. Kalshi has Bolsonaro at 83%, Lula 17%. Both little changed since this morning.
Market prices, not predictions or advice.
Brazil presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro won the backing of two center-right parties on Wednesday, a day after a veteran lawmaker endorsed him, bolstering his campaign ahead of a tight runoff bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
