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#thepeoplespredictionmarket
France had a weekend of riots. The first poll since, by Ifop-Fiducial, barely moved.
Traders did. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen is at 58¢ to win next spring’s presidential vote, up from 54¢ over the weekend. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is at 24¢.
#France2027 #FrenchPresident #LePen
France president → predictit.org/markets/detail…
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Watercolor from a 📸 Julie Sebadelha/AFP via Getty Images.
Trump endorsed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Oct. 18. Traders didn’t follow.
Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is at 60¢ to be Israel’s next prime minister, up from 50¢ that day. Netanyahu is at 45¢, right where he started. Israel votes Tuesday.
#Israel2026 #Election
Israel prime minister → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Brazil votes Sunday, and the polls have it tied. Quaest has right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and President Lula at 44%.
Traders have Flávio at 82¢ to win the runoff. Since 1989, no candidate who trailed in the first round has come back to win one.
#LulaBolsonaro
Brazil president → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Runoff margin → predictit.org/markets/detail…
📸 Lula’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s Facebook campaign pages.
Michigan’s Senate debate is tonight: Mike Rogers (R) vs. Abdul El-Sayed (D).
Traders have El-Sayed at 70¢ going in. Watch the price move live.
#MichiganSenate #ElSayedRogers #SenateControl
Michigan Senate → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Trump’s super PAC moved $277 million from Sept. 1 to Oct. 14, per Bloomberg. Super PAC checks have no ceiling.
On PredictIt, nobody can put more than $3,500 into a contract, the same as the limit on a check to a candidate for Congress.
#ThePeoplesPredictionMarket #Midterms2026
Senate control → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Trump in Kansas on Monday: “With Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E-15 permanent. But if Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it.”
Traders have Sen. Roger Marshall (R) at 59¢ against Hamilton (D) at 40¢.
#SenateControl #MarshallHamilton #KSSenate
Kansas Senate → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Trump’s super PAC has moved $277 million since Sept. 1, per Bloomberg. Its biggest Senate target is Texas, at $36 million.
Traders still favor state Rep. James Talarico (D) at 66¢, against Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) at 38¢.
#TalaricoPaxton #SenateControl #TXSenate
Texas Senate → predictit.org/markets/detail…
JUST IN on PredictIt 🚨:
- Ohio governor’s margin of victory
- How many Senate races are decided by less than 1%
- Which Texas race will have the bigger margin, Senate or governor
Ohio governor margin → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Senate races under 1% → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Texas Senate vs. governor margin → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Cook moved three Senate races Tuesday. Traders held their favorites:
Mississippi, Solid to Likely R: Hyde-Smith (R) 88¢
South Carolina, Likely to Lean R: Graham (R) 84¢
Minnesota, Likely to Lean D: Flanagan (D) 86¢
Sabato moved 28 House races toward Democrats. House: D 90¢
Mississippi Senate → predictit.org/markets/detail…
South Carolina Senate → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Minnesota Senate → predictit.org/markets/detail…
House control → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) will spend $4 million on an ad featuring the estranged mother of his opponent, Amy Acton (D). The backlash crossed party lines.
Traders moved toward Acton. Democrats are at 80¢ to win Ohio’s governor’s race, up from 75¢ Tuesday morning.
#OctoberSurprise
Ohio governor → predictit.org/markets/detail…
Ohio Senate special → predictit.org/markets/detail…









