The home for prediction market traders. Sports, politics, culture, tech, and more. By @actionnetworkhq.
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Who wins the Senate? 🗳️
40,000 simulations. 6 races that decide it. 10 places we disagree with the market.
Updated daily 👉 predictionpro.com/midterms/m…
🚀 Tesla–SpaceX merger odds are now favored
📈 56% chance a merger is officially announced by Feb. 28, 2027, per prediction markets
⏪ Was ~27% earlier this week
📰 Bloomberg: talks are advancing, and a deal could come as soon as December
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This odds move spotted in our Biggest Movers tool 👇 predictionpro.com/markets/bi…
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🪙 Gold dip odds nearly triple
📉 28% chance gold futures dip to $3,500 by end of December, per prediction markets
⏪ Was 10% a day earlier
🏦 Traders see an 87% chance of a December Fed hike
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🕊️ Envoys meet Putin. Markets don't budge.
Chance of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement, per prediction markets:
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Track every Russia–Ukraine market live 👇predictionpro.com
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🚨 Jensen Huang exit odds explode
📈 73.5% chance Nvidia announces his resignation or removal by Dec. 31, per prediction markets
⏪ Was 16.5% at 3 p.m. CT
⚡ 48% it happens by Friday
WSJ: Nvidia's board could meet as soon as tonight to decide his future
Nvidia shares fell ~8% after hours
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🚀 SpaceX is still the IPO to beat
Biggest IPO of 2026 by market cap, per prediction markets:
⚫ SpaceX: 88%
🟢 Anthropic: 10% (was 51.5% on Oct. 12)
🎯 The bar: ~$2.1T, SpaceX's market cap at its June debut close
Anthropic's reported valuation talk: $1.1T–$1.3T
Markets expect its IPO Nov. 19–20
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🗳️ Trump's blessing isn't a lock
Chance Trump endorses him first vs. wins the GOP nomination, per prediction markets:
🔴 Vance: 52% endorsement, 30.8% nomination
🔴 Rubio: 32% endorsement, 19.4% nomination
Vance's endorsement edge doesn't fully carry over to the nomination
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🏛️ Speaker Jeffries? Markets say 94%
🔵 94.3% chance Hakeem Jeffries is the first Speaker after the midterms
📊 Held between 92.6% and 94.3% every evening since Nov. 4
🪑 House Democrats have 250+ seats (218 needed)
--> The vote comes in January when the new Congress convenes
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🕊️ Russia–Ukraine peace talks are back. Markets eye 2027.
Chance of a ceasefire agreement, per prediction markets:
📅 By end of 2026: 15.5%
📅 By June 30, 2027: 55.5%
📅 By end of 2027: 69%
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Prediction Pro retweeted
Vance from 51% to 32% since Sept
25 is a brutal slide for a frontrunner
DeSantis went from under 3% to 15% off one Election Day. I think this early, the field reprices on every headline.
A 12 pt lead this far out is a coin toss with a nametag.
🚀 Anthropic IPO: markets circle Nov. 19–20
📅 77.5% chance it IPOs by Nov. 20, per prediction markets
⏪ Was 59% this morning
📊 Most likely day-one close: $1.25T–$1.5T (36%)
Reports: marketing could start as soon as Tuesday, with pricing the week of Nov. 16
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🇮🇱 Netanyahu's odds are climbing back
📈 Netanyahu: 26.8% to be Israel's next PM (was 17.8% Sunday morning)
📉 Eisenkot: 60.8% (was 70% Saturday night)
Seats: 53 (Netanyahu bloc) vs. 48 (Eisenkot's), 61 needed
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🏈 Super Bowl odds: it's a 3-team race
🥇 49ers: 13.9% (7-1)
🥈 Bills: 13.5% (6-1)
🥉 Bears: 12.5% (7-2)
🐆 Jaguars down to 9% (was 10.5% Friday)
👀 Vikings are 6-1 but just 2.8%, and they host Buffalo tonight
📉 Vance's 2028 lead is shrinking fast
🗳️ Chance to win the GOP nomination, per prediction markets:
🔴 Vance: 32% (was 51% on Sept. 25)
⚪ Rubio: 20.5%
🟢 DeSantis: 15% (was under 3% before Election Day)
Vance's lead: 35 pts → 12 pts
🇮🇷 Iran invasion odds whipsaw on $550K in trading
📊 12.5% chance the US invades Iran before 2027, per prediction markets
📉 Dipped to 8.5% early Sunday afternoon
📈 Back to 12.5% by 5 p.m. CT
🔝 Peaked at 20.5% on Oct. 28
🗞️ Trump: new strikes "highly unlikely" if talks progress
⚠️ Iran's FM: Tehran will "rain down hell" if attacks resume
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