Morning Report→ Fox called Texas 49-49. The market paid up for Talarico anyway. What moved, what didn't, and the $23,000 that landed three minutes later.

Five Metro Atlanta counties are casting 40% of Georgia’s early vote. Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Clayton: 40.9% of their 2022 vote banked. Statewide, 37.1%. They produce more than the entire Democratic margin. The other 154 counties are net red.

This might explain why Florida's early vote looks so different from Georgia and North Carolina. The raw Democratic shift is there, but the voters coming off the sidelines aren't nearly as Democratic. So you can have a much bluer electorate than 2024 without necessarily getting the same kind of shift in actual votes. That distinction matters a lot when trying to price these races.

🗳️ Which Senate race decides control? It's not one race. • Alaska + Texas lead, each deciding it in ~7% of our model's sims • The top 3 races combined: only 22% • 8 states are within 1 point of the lead There's no single "must-win" seat this year — it's a dozen of them 👀

85 cents for a Democrat in Alaska would've sounded ridiculous a year ago. But with three Republicans splitting the vote and ranked-choice voting in play, this isn't exactly a normal red-state election. The bigger question is whether the market is overestimating how much that GOP split actually helps once second-choice votes get redistributed.

🗳️ 3 million Texans have already voted — running 47% ahead of 2022 at the same point in early voting And the electorate showing up is split almost exactly down the middle: 🟦 34.8% — Democratic only 🟥 34.3% — Republican only ⬜ 27.6% — no primary at all

Nevada going from R+23.7k at this point in 2024 to D+11.6k now is a pretty significant swing. But comparing a presidential electorate to a midterm can be misleading. I'd be more curious how this stacks up against 2022, especially with both the governor's race and competitive House seats on the ballot. The bigger question is whether Dems are actually adding voters or just banking them earlier.

19 House races moved toward Dems in one update and Cook now has them favored in all 218 seats needed for control. That's a pretty big shift this close to Election Day. Our PredictionPro model was projecting D+6.1 nationally, and Cook is now talking about a 12–22 seat gain. Feels like the House conversation is moving beyond just who controls it and toward how big the majority could actually get.

Trump carried the new TX-35 by 10 points in 2024. Pollings says R+1🔴. The Model says R+0.2🔴. The market says Garcia + 3🔵... 🤔

There's definitely a real trend here, but a lot of this is population growth and migration too. Texas, Idaho and Florida have been adding people for years, so naturally they're adding jobs. That doesn't automatically mean Republican policies created the growth any more than it means Democratic policies caused slower growth elsewhere. I'd be more curious to see employment growth adjusted for working-age population.

Andrews up 1 in South Carolina and Kalshi still only gives her about 19%. I get that it's a Republican state, but we've now had multiple polls showing a race within 4 points. At some point you have to wonder how much of the market price is based on South Carolina's voting history vs what's actually happening in the polls. Also worth remembering this one was commissioned by a pro-Andrews PAC.

🤠 Texas governor: the Hinojosa bump is cooling off • Peaked at 35.5% Wednesday on Polymarket • Now 28%, Abbott back to ~72% • Latest UH Hobby poll: Abbott 49, Hinojosa 46 A 3-point race in the polls, a 72/28 race in the market 👀

💰 Senate control trading just went vertical • $595K traded overnight on Polymarket • Nearly 4x any full day since at least Aug. 1 • Dems still 67.5% to win the Senate, near their high That much money with almost no price move = both sides are loading up 👀

Texas up 39%, Nevada up 57%, and North Carolina up almost 90% in Hispanic early vote share compared to 2022. Those are some pretty big shifts in states with competitive Senate races. Obviously doesn't mean all these voters are Democrats, but if the GOP's 2024 gains with Hispanic voters are fading, prediction markets might be underestimating how much that changes the Senate map.

Nearly $90 million raised in just two weeks is a ridiculous amount of money this late in the cycle. Prediction markets now have Dem Senate control around 69%, up from the low 60s just a week ago. Our PredictionPro model was at 66.1% in the last snapshot. Money doesn't guarantee wins, but it gives Democrats a lot of firepower in those last few competitive Senate races.

Lombardo is still leading the polling average by 2.2 points, but DDHQ just flipped to Ford and Kalshi has him around 55%. Feels like the national environment is starting to outweigh the actual state polling in these forecasts. Nevada might be one of the clearest tests of how much incumbency still matters in a Democratic wave year.

That 43% vs 79% split among younger and older Republicans is pretty massive. Feels like one of those issues where the GOP leadership and its next generation of voters are moving in completely different directions. Could become a much bigger divide in the party after Trump, especially when foreign policy starts becoming a real issue in the 2028 primaries.

Republicans finally edged ahead in Iowa's daily early vote, but I think people are missing the bigger picture. No-party voters are now nearly 20% of the electorate, and we have no idea how they're actually breaking. With the Senate race this close, that group could matter a lot more than the daily D vs R registration numbers.

The jump from D+16 among all young voters to D+37 among likely voters is pretty wild. Usually the question with Gen Z is whether they'll actually show up, but this suggests the ones most motivated to vote are overwhelmingly Democratic. If that holds, national polling might actually be understating the youth vote gap.