Goldman's former #1 chip analyst Jim Covello says nearly all of AI's money is flowing to the chipmakers - and that's "completely unsustainable" "Right now, enterprises collectively are not making or saving money on their AI implementations. And to me, everything flows from there" Asked how anyone can forecast AI when "we just don't know how it's going to evolve" Goldman's head of global equity research - answered with a method, not a vibe: > Free Users Don't Pay (2:38): - "95% of consumers are using a free version of AI" - so the infrastructure won't be paid for on the consumer side. It has to come from profitable enterprise adoption. > Completely Unsustainable (3:56): - "All of the economic value is accrued to the semiconductor companies" - "great for now," but "completely unsustainable unless... the enterprises start to make or save money implementing AI." > Six Trillion More (8:00): - Goldman's own team estimates "another six trillion dollars" of spend by the end of 2030. "We're not talking about billions, we're talking about trillion." > The Market Flipped (8:40): - Every capex hike used to get rewarded. "Over the last quarter or so you've really seen a significant shift." > The Bad Kind Of Circular (11:49): - A chip discount is fine. But if a customer can't invest without its supplier's money, "I don't think that's the sign of a very healthy supply chain." He forecasts from who is actually making money, "as opposed to just sort of blind belief." I ran every big AI CRASH CALL call through the same kind of test - what each caller sells, and who was right ↓