Prediction market terminal on @Solana. Launch any market in one click. No token yet
Joined January 2022
- Tweets368
- Following363
- Followers864
- Likes550
ProbTrade retweeted
How to create your own prediction market for any event
There're 2 ways you can create a prediction market
The 1st is to submit a market on @Polymarket Discord
It's long, hard process. And doesn't always work
The 2nd is to create a market via @ProbTradeAI
It’s quick, easy. And even can make you money - 1% on every trade
I prefer the 2nd way as it has much more advantages
Create your own market and earn: app.prob.trade/create
Mb I should create a market too?
Let me know in comments which topic I should choose
🤝 Paid partnership
Create a prediction market in 60 seconds. Earn 1% on every trade - forever.
$100 USDC, 2-30 outcomes, any topic. Elections, sports, crypto, AI benchmarks - anything that can be framed with mutually exclusive answers.
You set the initial probabilities yourself. By default, they are evenly distributed - 1/N for each outcome.
Under the hood, there is a single pool for all outcomes. The probabilities sum to 1 mathematically - there is no structural arbitrage opportunity.
Three on-chain fee accumulators: creator, LP, and protocol. Each is marked with a separate instruction sent directly to your wallet.
> Want to participate risk-free? Hold tokens for all outcomes simultaneously. Guaranteed $1 return at any time. No impermanent loss.
Transaction fee: $0.0005. Block time: 400 ms. SPL tokens work directly on Jupiter, Solend, and Kamino.
Read more: prob.trade/blog/prediction-m…
ProbTrade retweeted
Ownership Roadshow #2 🏟️ Powered by @UmbraPrivacy ☁️ teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1qxoNejmA…
ProbTrade retweeted
Welcome @vlprosvirkin as our next Roadshow #2 pitching team!
@ProbTradeAI is building one-click prediction markets on Solana, with AI features that turn text-described strategies into automated bots.
Catch us on X live today from 7PM UTC / 12PM PT 🦈
ProbTrade retweeted
Most prediction markets today feel limited
binary, fragmented, inefficient
so we’re rethinking it from the roots
building multi-outcome prediction markets
with a single-pool LMSR model on Solana w multi outcomes
deeper liquidity
better pricing
smoother execution
@ProbTradeAI
ProbTrade retweeted
Fortnite players are funding my Polymarket bets
And they don't even know it
Epic pays $350M/year to map creators
AI builds the maps → maps generate cash
Cash funds the trades
> $2,190/month from one map
> Reinvested into @ProbTradeAI
> AI finds the edge and places the bet
Two systems. Zero manual work.
Most people pick one income stream and grind
The real edge is when your systems feed each other
trade with me: app.prob.trade/?ref=wast3
🤝 Paid partnership
ProbTrade retweeted
sports trading terminal
sometimes the functionality of the polymarket is not enough
third-party terminals make trading more convenient and better
real-time match score, agent AI support
all this is on probtrade
app.prob.trade/?ref=prob-tra…
ProbTrade retweeted
Found a trader who turned $5.68 into $6.15M on Polymarket and I reverse-engineered exactly how he does it.
Polymarket has 14,200 active traders.
Most lose everything within weeks.
Spotting the real edge players manually is a waste of time.
So I ran an automated scan across the full base.
42 minutes. 69 traders with 75%+ win rate surfaced.
Number one: [swisstony]
PnL: $6,146,631
Starting balance: $5.68
Total markets traded: 84,000+
Biggest single win: $711,700
Profile: app.prob.trade/traders/0x204…
Spent time going deep on his trade history.
Three strategies running on loop:
1. Settlement CarryEnters at ~$0.61, collects $1.00 at resolution. Across $494M volume that's net +$4.96M.
2. Dual-Side Hedging (5,500+ trades) Buys YES and NO simultaneously when the combined price is under $1. $0.52 + $0.45 = $0.97 cost -> $1.00 payout = +$0.03 per trade locked.
Median position size under $6. Runs around the clock.
3. Implied Probability ArbTeam A at 56.8¢ + Team B at 39.4¢ = 96.2¢ total.
Payout is always $1.00 -> +3.8¢ guaranteed, no directional risk.
Been mirroring these strategies with @ProbTradeAI for 48 hours: app.prob.trade/?ref=join
$32 in -> $480 out.
Just pure math exploiting market inefficiency.
Save his edge here.
ProbTrade retweeted
They're registering polling stations in unfinished apartment buildings. Hungary's most corrupt election in 20 years is today.
> Peter Magyar - Orban's former ally, now his biggest threat. Spent years inside the ruling party back when Orban was still considered a liberal reformer.
Left, built his own opposition movement, and is now leading the polls.
His positioning is smart: he calls himself a conservative too. Same values, different face.
That's exactly the formula that wins in Eastern Europe - u don't overthrow a right-wing incumbent by running left, you run right and take his voters.
Today he's backed by both traditional opposition and conservatives who supported Orban for years but are done with him.
The fraud is documented. Organized voter transportation. Polling stations registered at addresses that are literally under construction.
My trade - Magyar wins. Eastern Europe gets another data point that these regimes can actually fall at the ballot box.
app.prob.trade/clusters/next…
Trading this on @ProbTradeAI
🤝 Paid partnership
I found an open-source backtesting framework for @Polymarket. It runs on the same engine as quant hedge funds.
> prediction-market-backtesting - Python framework built on NautilusTrader. The same infrastructure professional algo desks use in traditional finance.
Someone wrote custom adapters for prediction market mechanics on top of it.
Single and portfolio backtests. Statistical parameter optimization - systematic search for optimal parameters.
Clean EXPERIMENT objects, no boilerplate. Historical data from PMXT, free.
> The charts are the standout. Equity curve, tick-level PNL, drawdowns, Sharpe with above/below zero zones, monthly returns, market allocation, cumulative Brier advantage. Commercial platform level.
/
Brier advantage is the metric worth understanding. Sharpe measures risk-adjusted returns.
Brier advantage measures prediction quality against market prices as baseline.
On prediction markets that distinction matters more than anywhere else.
Python 3.12+, Rust under the hood. MIT license. Version 2 just dropped.
If you trade prediction markets seriously - this belongs in your stack.
github.com/evan-kolberg/pred…
ProbTrade retweeted
16YO CHINESE KID JUST TURNED $15 INTO $517,000 WITH 100% WIN RATE..AND THE REAL CHEAT CODE WASN’T JUST CLAUDE
His nickname is [RWO].
Not a trader. Not a programmer.
Just a 16-year-old who fed Claude pure math and told it to scan thousands of Polymarket markets at once.
His profile: app.prob.trade/traders/0xd18…
But there was ONE fatal problem.
Every trade needed a private key signature.
Give the agent your keys -> instant anxiety and potential rug.
Keep the keys -> agent is useless.
Then he discovered @ProbTradeAI.
Now his OpenClaw agent runs like a real machine:
-- OpenClaw -> scans markets and sends signals.
-- ProbTrade -> receives JSON request, checks your risk, limits (position size, daily drawdown), signs HMAC-SHA256 and routes to Polymarket.
-- The agent sees ONLY the trade-only API key (ptk_*)
-- Private keys never leave the secure ProbTrade environment.
11 strategies are already built-in and working out of the box:
> Pair Cost Arbitrage
> Logic Arbitrage (PolyClaw)
> 7-Agent Swarm
> Whale Tracking
> Sentiment Divergence
> Value Investor
..and 5 more killers.
He kept making the same micro-bets of 0.1–2 cents, but now fully safe and on autopilot.
17,000+ trades.
Biggest single win - still $7M.
You can also copy his trades here: app.prob.trade/traders/0xd18…
@ProbTradeAI is exactly the shield everyone was missing.
Link: app.prob.trade/?ref=prob-tra…
Docs: prob.trade/docs
GitHub integration: github.com/vlprosvirkin/open…
This isn’t the future anymore.
It’s already working right now.
Save this setup.
ProbTrade retweeted
The tool helped find Smart Wallets for copy trading
> Convenient filters for different purposes
> Own system for filtering and classifying traders
> Full trader analytics
I'm using @ProbTradeAI
I focused on traders based on various metrics to increase the sample size
A convenient table for a complete and clear view
I recommend using it to find more traders, the markets they trade on and their strategies
app.prob.trade/?ref=prob-tra…
🤝 Paid partnership
ProbTrade is a platform where even inexperienced traders in the prediction markets can gain an edge over seasoned traders.
We offer one of the best services for copy trading and AI strategies to automate your trading.
Choose to work with a ready-made strategy or develop your own together with our AI agent.
ProbTrade is a product that is constantly evolving, improving in quality, and opening up the world of prediction markets to an ever-growing number of users.
ProbTrade retweeted
US GROUND OPERATION ON IRAN JUST WENT NUCLEAR
> Pizza index is exploding again.
> Gay bars near the Pentagon suddenly empty.
> Suspicious wallets that called the move early already deep in profit for more than $1,300,000.
This is exactly why even new traders are beating the pros on @ProbTradeAI.
- Copy the top strategies in real time.
- Run powerful AI strategies that spot these signals before they blow up.
- Build your own AI trading agent right inside the platform.
Traders are already up $800,000+ riding these exact developments.
ProbTrade keeps evolving and opening prediction markets to everyone who wants the real edge.
Level up and check profile trader now here: app.prob.trade/traders/0x8c8…
ProbTrade is a platform where even inexperienced traders in the prediction markets can gain an edge over seasoned traders.
We offer one of the best services for copy trading and AI strategies to automate your trading.
Choose to work with a ready-made strategy or develop your own together with our AI agent.
ProbTrade is a product that is constantly evolving, improving in quality, and opening up the world of prediction markets to an ever-growing number of users.
ProbTrade retweeted
Polymarket trader sets all-time record with $10.5 million in profit on sports
His exact pattern: Remains Unclear
The cumulative result of Kelly Criterion sizing, correct conviction and so on
Meanwhile you were given a boost to look alike kch123 using @ProbTradeAI
Built-in AI agent provides accurate predictions, detailed team and player information and live match broadcasts
I'm none of those who knows everything about sports, that's why I need an assistance
Something like this, including data on player injuries and matches history
Try this out: app.prob.trade/?ref=prob-tra…
🤝 Paid partnership
You lose $34,000 each day because you do nothing
Another algorithmic bot made $5,6million in 160 days
This is equal to ~$34,000 DAILY PROFIT
Nahh he does not trade Up/Down markets neither farms cross platform arbitrage
To be fair, most of them were wiped out by fees or/and competitor's superiority
Every real profile that is coded by team and can be tracked, has different algo and cannot be reproduced without quant modeling
Check his acc and current predictions: polymarket.com/@swisstony?r=…
