The Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) at Western Washington University. Publishers of the award-winning Puget Sound Economic Forecaster.
Bellingham, WA
Joined December 2018
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Industrial vacancy has started falling again and the newest and largest warehouses are leading the change. National vacancy fell to 7.6% in the third quarter, the first quarterly decline since 2022, according to Marcus & Millichap's November industrial outlook.
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Manufacturing real estate hasn't benefited from the same momentum, even though manufacturers are busier. New orders and shipments for durable goods rose nearly 10% in the year ended September.
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Even so, manufacturing leasing fell 18% from the prior quarter and vacancy rose slightly despite fewer deliveries buff.ly/BHgu1Zg
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Global oil markets will swing to a supply surplus for the first time since the start of the Iran war as Persian Gulf exports recover despite the ongoing conflict.
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Oil exports from the gulf have rebounded to 74% of pre-war levels due to a surge from Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC member Iraq.
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The agency bolstered estimates for global oil supplies in 2026 by a substantial 920,000 barrels a day, and world oil markets are set for an overhang of roughly 2 million barrels a day this quarter. buff.ly/6zCUad6
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Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slumped in October to their slowest pace in more than 16 years as mortgage rates climbed sharply, ratcheting up borrowing costs for aspiring homebuyers. buff.ly/mIsIIT9
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Total U.S. Business Applications were 501,609 in October 2026, down 6.0% from September 2026.
October 2026: -6.0° % Change
September 2026 (r): +0.6° % Change
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The National Financial Conditions Index increased to –0.46 in the week ending November 6. Risk indicators contributed –0.22, credit indicators contributed –0.14, and leverage indicators contributed –0.10 to the index in the latest week.
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The wave of retail bankruptcies in 2024 and 2025 have left landlords with a lot of dark stores. Now, locations are filling up, often at higher rents.
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Discount chains, grocers, fitness operators and entertainment tenants are taking over space vacated by failed retailers. In many cases, they are paying more than the tenants who left, according to JLL's third-quarter Retail Market Dynamics report.
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That backfilling has turned the market around. U.S. retail gained 24.4 million square feet of occupied space in the 12 months through September, after losing 7 million square feet in the previous 12 months. National vacancy edged down to 4.3%. buff.ly/zZDM1gA
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The average price for a new vehicle in the U.S. has hit a record high of $51,109, according to Kelley Blue Book. This figure is about $500 above the previous record set in December 2025.
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We are reading multiple commentaries this morning about inflation, Fed rates, and the Treasury market, all spotlighting the latest CPI reading.
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Businesses have pricing power thanks to a robust overall economy. Households are seeing wage erosion, which should mean wage pressure for increases, but companies are spending more on benefits such as health care, which is limiting options.
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