I do research on voting systems, TLS, Bitcoin, panic passwords and other topics in applied cryptography. // NOLINT
Montreal, Canada
Joined June 2008
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Jeremy Clark retweeted
SoK: Market Microstructure for Decentralized Prediction Markets
Presented by: @PulpSpy
Prediction-market prices depend on the full workflow: market creation, trading, resolution, settlement, and archiving. The process shapes what the price actually means
Jeremy Clark retweeted
D² brings together research on DeFi protocol design, incentives, and market behavior
Across two days, the program spans:
→ DeFi Microstructure
→ Perpetual Futures & Derivatives
→ Mechanism Design
→ Prediction Markets
→ AMMs
Learn more: designingdefi.xyz
Jeremy Clark retweeted
We looked at the average bettor in Iran-related prediction markets.
In one of the most popular markets, ~90% of wallets bet $1,000 or less.
The 10 accounts that traded $1M+?
They only started betting after the initial news broke.
W/@justinaknope @rachaeldottle
Jeremy Clark retweeted
Cool breakdown of who’s winning (and losing) in prediction markets
Since early 2025:
• 100K+ Polymarket accounts lost at least $1,000, nearly 2x the number that made that much
• Profits are heavily concentrated among a small group
• Everyone else, in aggregate, is down $131 M
Path B: Like many cryptographers, Satoshi read a quite popular encyclopedia and copied a citation from it to the part that he used.
Occam's razor would suggest B.
Now that you know, you can choose the road you want to go down:
Path A: Satoshi had a paper copy of a hard-to-find conference proceedings and happened to make the same typo as the encyclopedia.
Here is the paper itself... Notice the encyclopedia article introduces a typo in the title of the paper. The citation says "Requirements" while the paper's title is "Requirement."
Satoshi is not the first person to cite this paper. 3 years before the Bitcoin whitepaper, an Encyclopedia of Cryptography was published with an article on "time-stamping" and the following picture (which you'll recognize as a "blockchain" 3 years before Bitcoin!)
The @findingsatoshi_ documentary has reinvigorated the question of Satoshi's citation to a paper in a local Benelux symposium.
There is a simple explanation for this.
xitter.cf/coinjoined/status/2047…
I don't think @lensassaman was Satoshi. He didn't know C++, nor ever used Windows per his wife & he strongly criticized Bitcoin's lack of privacy.
But this is wild: the whitepaper cites an obscure, at that time print-only, paper… and he shared a photo of his office in Belgium in 2007:
I’ve spent a lot of time with that dataset but no luck with any top candidate being a close match. Can you say at a high level what stylemetric you focused on?
Also how do you handle post-Bitcoin text since it may use Satoshi's terminology or even quote him.
Jeremy Clark retweeted
Watch the documentary. I'll never get that time back. Apprecite the attempt at kindness towards Fran and Meredith but the methodology and investigative prowess being shown is as bad at @JohnCarreyrou at the NYT,
Frankly with the upcoming Calvin Ayre funded movie, Killing Satoshi starring Casey Affleck (and the unproven lies about Gary Oldman playing @adam3us circulating) the whole thing is ridiculous.
A much better documentary is Kung Fu Elliot (mirrors Faketoshi and Calvin's delusions)/. It also has more clues about Satoshi subjects then anyone cares to investigate. Casey Affleck should be ashamed being associated with the Faketoshi lies.
Jeremy Clark retweeted
In my five-minute, unscripted talk at the Network State conference, I disclosed a private conversation between Hal Finney and me shortly before he died: youtube.com/live/j22fmkUFJl0…
I assume it is live streaming and you can't fast forward and the film hasn't ended yet because Polymarket is going through a real journey.
The other category has dried up now (the filmmakers did promise to name one name IIRC) and Hal/Len are about 50-50 now.
xitter.cf/brian_armstrong/status…
Great, paying twice as much and waiting an extra day because I am Canadian.
Someone want to leak the film's thesis?
Polymarket is a bit all over the place and I assume some traders have seen it by now. Still split between Len, Hal, and other. Team?
