j.p. morgan asset management added bitcoin to its long-term return forecasts for the first time on october 19. investment committees use these forecasts to plan portfolios. it expects btc to return about 10% a year over 10-15 years, against 7.5% for u.s. large-cap stocks, but with about three times their volatility. jpm still leaves btc out as an allocation and keeps it out of its main risk models, because btc's links to other assets are unstable. so committees now have a return number, but btc's effect on total portfolio risk stays hard to measure.