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RA Capital

@RA_Cap1tal

Portfolio Manager on eToro | Founder of The Analyst’s Journal | Deep dives on stocks, portfolio strategy & macro shifts https://teapaw.org/t.co/iUo2soRqg9

anandcapital.substack.com/?r=2olg83&utm_campaign=pub-share-checklist
Joined March 2025
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Photo by RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)Photo by RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)Photo by RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)Photo by RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)Photo by RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)Photo by RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)Photo by RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)Photo by RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)Photo by RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)Photo by RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)
One week, two days: Thu: Nasdaq -5.5%, chip index -12.3% Fri: Nasdaq +1.1%, chip index +4.2% Jobs: +165k vs ~+60k expected. Unemployment 4.1%. QQQ still -5.0% Fri-to-Fri. A bounce isn't a reset. $QQQ $SOXX
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Thursday: S&P 500 -4.4% Nasdaq Composite -5.5% Chip index -12.3% SanDisk -22.3% My view: the sell-off has improved risk/reward. Policy proposals aren't cancelled orders. I remain bullish, but project delays and weaker earnings guidance would challenge that view. $SNDK $SOXX $QQQ
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Wednesday, one market: S&P 500 +1.6% Dow +3.0% Brent -8.7% Chip index -3.1% Vistra -13.8% Investors cheered a Democratic Congress and cheaper oil, then sold the companies that build and power AI data centres. This morning SK hynix is down another 9%. $SKHY $VST
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Last day of the eToro Summit in Cyprus. Best part wasn't the stage. It was other investors at the table, comparing how we each handle cash, concentration and a week where the S&P rallied and AI hardware sold off on the same day. Different markets, same habit: look for the next risk before the crowd does. $QQQ $SOXX
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AMD guided Q4 to about $17B, against roughly $16.2B expected. Arista and Astera Labs beat and raised too. By 04:50 UK: Nikkei about -4.6% SK hynix about -6% Nasdaq 100 futures about -1.6% Three strong AI prints lost the night to one election result. I hold AMD and Astera. $AMD $ALAB
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Update: those were overnight lows. SK hynix closed roughly flat and the Nikkei finished -1.4%.
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Arrived at the eToro Pro Investor Summit 2026 in Cyprus. Here to learn from other investors and bring the best ideas back to my process. Good week for it, with the Nasdaq 100 about 10% off its high and AMD reporting tonight. $AMD
Image from RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)
Image from RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)
Image from RA Capital (@RA_Cap1tal)
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Marvell's deal for Lumentum was announced at about $1,132 a share. By Monday's close: 4.5 Marvell shares: about $771 Lumentum close: $684.40 An 11% gap on an all-stock deal. That's what waiting until 2028 and getting past regulators costs right now. I hold Marvell. $MRVL $LITE
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Same morning, two memory makers: Kioxia (NAND only): down as much as 17% in Tokyo on a flat profit outlook SK hynix (DRAM and HBM): up about 4% in Seoul Kioxia says next year's output is already sold out. Today that wasn't enough. The market wants prices still rising. $SKHY $DRAM
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Next week, UK time (US opens 14:30 from Monday): Mon: Apple, Palantir after close Tue: US midterms; AMD after close Wed: Uber pre-open; Arm, Qualcomm after Thu: Bank of England 12:00 Fri: US jobs 13:30 AMD is the one I'm watching, the first chip print since Intel's PC miss. $AAPL $PLTR $AMD $UBER
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October in four numbers: Nasdaq 100: -6.7% Brent crude: +13.6% US 10-year yield: 5.29% to 4.93% Gold futures: -6.9% Tech fell and oil jumped, yet bonds still rallied. The market read the AI spending scare as a growth worry first. $QQQ $GOLD solana:kLqMvUm1p4pRbxU4r8kWCTVAuWMJLtcTJqGb4b5pump
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SanDisk beat and raised Thursday, then fell 13% Friday. The trigger was a rival: Kioxia said NAND prices rose in the mid-20s % last quarter, after about 70% the quarter prior. These stocks trade on how fast prices rise. That pace fell by about two-thirds. I hold $SNDK.
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Before markets, I played professional tennis, with type 1 diabetes the whole time. In Italy for my university: 30°C+, four opponents, glucose dropping from the moment I landed. Gels and bananas at every changeover, still had lows, and I won. It shaped how I think about risk. $MU $SNDK
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A few years ago I played for my university in Italy. 30°C+, three days, four opponents. My glucose dropped the moment I landed, so I cut my insulin ratios and kept sipping gels and eating bananas and dates at changeovers. I still had lows, and I won.
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Type 1 means managing your own blood sugar every day. Too low or too high both cost you. In a portfolio I try to work the same way: size positions so a bad day is survivable, and decide early what would change my mind.
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Alphabet spent less on capex than expected and had its worst day on record, -12%. Amazon spent $77.3B, about $19B over estimates, and fell ~7% after hours. What they share is cash flow: Alphabet -$9.1B of free cash flow in Q3, Amazon -$42.4B over 12 months. $GOOG $AMZN
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Samsung made ₩107.4tn of operating profit last quarter, a first for any tech company. The stock fell as much as 6.6% in Seoul. Investors wanted a shareholder return plan and Samsung pushed it to January. A day earlier, SK hynix set out about ₩100tn of 2026 returns. $SKHY
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SK hynix made ₩83.3tn of operating profit last quarter at an 80% margin, about 8% above consensus. Further down: 14 big customers have signed long-term deals covering over half its 2027-28 output. Memory has always been boom and bust. That's SK hynix trying to change it. $SKHY
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$META plans to raise up to $95B by selling new shares, about $35B now and up to $60B later. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom showed interest in buying up to $5B of it. Meta is one of their biggest customers. Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday. I'll read how they fund capex first.
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Kospi is down almost 20% in October. Samsung and SK hynix are close to half the index. SK hynix reports Wednesday. Consensus is a record quarter: about 77tn won of operating profit, a 78% margin (FnGuide). If that holds, the selling is about next year's supply and China's CXMT. solana:XHxQRvqGcr2YjZoSzTfXxkHBqCL9izthGrAAYRYpump $SKHY solana:7Lob7rg43kWwmreuxfSTuohun2atBHCXBUkW6KSfpump $EWT
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