Arin Ruttenberg 🎗️

BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 extends losses to -5.5% on the day, now on track to post its biggest daily decline since April 2025. The index is now ~5% away from entering bear market territory.

BREAKING: The Volatility Index, $VIX, surges over +70% on the day, on track for its biggest daily gain since February 2018. Not even March 2020 saw a daily jump in volatility like we are seeing now.

Absolute insanity. In just 40 minutes, the S&P 500 has now erased -$2 trillion in market cap. The entire post-Midterm Election rally has been erased in a matter of minutes. This is one of the fastest market cap losses in stock market history.

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (10/28/2026): 1. Fed leaves interest rates unchanged after September hike 2. Rate pause was a 10-2 decision with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favor of a rate hike 3. Fed says economic activity is "expanding at a strong pace" 4. Fed says inflation "remains elevated" and seeks more information 5. Fed notes that "geopolitical developments" are contributing to uncertainty 6. The Fed reasserts that "The Committee will deliver price stability" "Higher for longer" continues at the Fed.

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (9/16/2026): 1. Fed hikes interest rates by 25 bps for first time since July 2023 2. The decision was made in a 12-0 unanimous vote 3. Fed says the decision will support a "timelier" return to 2% inflation 4. Median Fed forecast shows one more 25 basis point rate hike in 2026 5. Fed says job gains are strong and the unemployment rate has "changed little" 6. "The Committee will deliver price stability," the Fed's statement says Higher for longer is back.

Yields just won't stop. You know it's bad when bond market is quite literally ignoring the US Treasury. 24 hours later and the 10Y Note Yield is now pushing into 4.80%, its highest since January 2025. That's another +20 basis points since the low seen after the US Treasury's intervention announcement 13 days ago. In a sudden turn of events, 7% mortgages are back, the 10Y Note Yield is nearing 5%, and markets are expecting a September rate hike. This marks a +85 basis point run in the 10Y Note Yield since the Iran War began. Once again, the US simply cannot afford the 10Y Note Yield at 5% for a sustained period of time. We expect further attempts at intervention immediately. But, the question becomes: will markets listen?

If Nvidia, $NVDA, actually reports $108 billion in revenue for Q3 as they are guiding, that would mark +1,730% growth in 4 years. Never in history has a company of this size grown at such a fast pace. Once again, we are witnessing history.

What just happened? The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

Bond markets are flashing red. Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%. This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

Key Events This Week: 1. Markets React to Trump's "48 Hour Warning" - 6 PM ET Today 2. March ISM Non-Manufacturing data - Monday 3. Trump's "Iran Power Plant and Bridge Day" - Tuesday 4. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday 5. February PCE Inflation data - Thursday 6. US Q4 2025 GDP data - Thursday 7. March CPI Inflation data - Friday 8. April MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday 9. April MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday We expect extreme volatility ahead.