Updated Week 7 NFL Playoff Chances, via Kalshi: 96% — Niners 95% — Bills 90% — Chiefs 85% — Vikings 78% — Jags 72% — Broncos 71% — Bears 70% — Bengals 68% — Ravens 67% — Patriots, Lions 57% — Seahawks 55% — Rams 51% — Steelers 48% — Packers 47% — Giants, Cowboys 42% — Falcons 40% — Browns 36% — Panthers 27% — Texans, Bucs 14% — Eagles 13% — Commanders 12% — Saints, Raiders 6% — Colts 5% — Jets 3% — Cardinals 2% — Chargers 1% — Titans, Dolphins

If Aaron Rodgers passes Drew Brees next year, he's a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. Not close. He's 42. He just passed Peyton today, in Paris. I used to work at Robinhood, so naturally I ran the math on the rest of the list. Brady: 649 Brees: 571 Rodgers: 540 Manning: 539 The record breaker was a 4 yard fade to Darnell Washington in the first NFL game ever played in France. 19 of 30, 212 yards, no picks. Steelers win 16 to 10. (My model had Pittsburgh this morning.) THE MATH Rodgers has 13 TDs through 7 games. About 1.9 per game. Brees is 31 away. At this pace he finishes the year around 559. He'd need one more season and about 13 more TDs. Brady is 109 away. That's roughly three more full seasons. He'd have to play until he's 46. Brady retired at 45. Brady's record is safe. Brees's isn't. And the moment Rodgers passes him, the Peyton debate is over. Tell me why I'm wrong. I post the numbers every week and grade myself every Monday. Follow if you want to see who was right.