FO / HF, L/S securities, real estate, private equity. Behavioral finance. Joyologist. Eastern Shore. Mortimer is greedy. 🇺🇸 #BillsMafia Buffalo native
Joined October 2019
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"Federal government is too big!" Oh yeah, how do you know? What's your quantitative routine in analyzing that? It's been getting more efficient since the 1950s. And what kind of systems theory perspective do you have on this question? Do you have a position on how big the
Capex per GW is not going to decline like this.
Firm rates in a market in contango is not at all a sure thing.
Over the last week I built a bottoms up SpaceX financial model through the end of 2028
The numbers that came out are insane
There are wide error bars given how quickly things are changing but I wanted to distill something complicated into something that can at least be debated
* This is not investment advice!!!
** Sequoia is a major SpaceX shareholder
*** Past performance is not indicative of future results
GAAP EPS of ($5.43) once again magically produces adjusted EPS of $13.01.
"Level yield" adjustment spreads out excess provisions. Maybe, but accounting in lending is necessarily lumpy, this can't be reconciled from the outside, and it gives investors a false sense of the business.
Randolph Duke 🇺🇸 retweeted
We'll be performing at the @BuffaloBills halftime show on Thanksgiving Night at Highmark Stadium 🏈🙌
Randolph Duke 🇺🇸 retweeted
$RBLX earnings revealed a business that appears to have caused long-term impairments to its viral growth engine as its YoY declines continue. Read our Oct. 27 report and disclaimers linked here. bleeckerstreetresearch.com/r… . Some thoughts on the quarter:
OWL's topline is pure shit. 5% management fee growth and 56% administrative / transaction fee growth? They generate almost zero carry and come nowhere near earning out their common dividend. Totally run for the firm's investment professionals.
Randolph Duke 🇺🇸 retweeted
Bleecker Street Is Short Roblox $RBLX. Please see our full trading disclaimer below as well as on our report. Report Link: bleeckerstreetresearch.com/r…
The Obama Library is not the White House. Different aesthetic principles entirely.
And a former Soros fund manager who owns a 9,000 sq ft pink mansion on the Battery in Charleston throwing shade at "the elites" is pretty funny.
🚨Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on President Obama mocking the Cheesecake Factory:
“This is the man who built the museum and it looks like Darth Vader’s tomb.”
Bessent also told @FoxBusiness' @FBNNicoleMac he frequents the Cheesecake Factory and always orders the French dip cheeseburger — and suggested the “Martha’s Vineyard set” should “give it a try.”
ANT provides zero KPIs on tokens, its basic revenue unit, and has zero mentions of any derivation of the word "watt."
Really helpful.
Consensus currently has SPCX "SI" revenue of $133B in 2027, with ending compute capacity of 8.7 GW, implying (after "X") revenue per MW of $23.5M.
It's not just the bears who doubt SPCX's "SI" outlook. It's the sellside.
few years was 13-15 GW annually before these pronouncements from SPCX. If SPCX "SI" doesn't replicate the frontier LLMs' business, that capacity is going to swamp short-term GPU rental rates.
Not sure why it is so exciting for SPCX to enter mobile telecom into a crowded market where T and VZ generate 6% ROIC.