Business Owner ; Ex - BofA Banker ; IIM Calcutta ('07Batch) Passionate about Investing; Student of History
Kolkata, India
Joined August 2013
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Li Lu's is only person Munger trusts with his money besides Buffett. He has a simple investment checklist
Is that a good business?
Is that Cheap?
Who is running it?
What did I miss?
Using this lens, l will look at #Apar Industries
Harsh is one of the most bullish person on India I know.
He makes people like us look pedestrian bulls 🙂
His bullishness on India is infectious. I am ordering my copy.
When are you ordering yours?
During this auspicious weekend of Dhanteras, Diwali and Lakshmi Puja, and with the blessings of the gods, elders and loved ones..
I am very happy and proud to announce that my third book is now available for pre-order in India:
"LONG INDIA:
The World's Greatest Investment Opportunity"
Here is the pre-order link:
amazon.in/Long-India-Greates…
#LongIndia will be globally released around 23 November 2026. More soon..
Maybe we can organize a book reading fire side chat in lovely Calcutta weather in December.
@a_basumallick what say ?
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FIIs coming back to India. Crude falling. First it was $RelianceIndustries and today its going to be $HDB. (HDFC bank)
So if we assume that bottom is in place and Nifty/Large caps will move 14-15% CAGR over next two years, then
LIC is a good proxy to play a leveraged trade on markets. Besides it's normal 10-11% growth, every 10% move in the markets add 6% to its embedded value.
So if markets might 15% CAGR, lic will compound it's embedded value (EV) at 20% CAGR. ADD 2-3% div yield.
It's trading at 0.6 times EV and if it closes that gap to say 0.8 then you have a doubler in hand in roughly 2 yrs!!
I will be surprised if LIC IRR is not higher than Nifty by atleast 5% points p.a.
Investment Opportunity highlight - LIC. A completely hated PSU Mega Cap.
Thanks to @saurabhved for highlighting this in our monthly VP meet in Calcutta 13th September.
Over the next 2 days I tried to understand the opportunity and below is my understanding in numbers
NSE listing is likely to add 6% kicker to LIC Embedded EV as LIC owns ~10%
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Shree Pushkar
Finally listened to the concall. Couldn't yesterday.
I request everyone to get on a call to listen what Makhariaji has to say. Enough has been said on HAcid so will ignore it and will highlight his vision for the underlying business
FY27 Rev 1250-1300 crs
FY28 Rev 1800-2000 crs
Once all the capex is done (FY28 target), the rev potential is 3000-3500crs. Needless to say we have decent visibility till FY30.
Longer term EBITDA margin target is 14-15% and PAT margin target 10-10.5%
FY27 Pat 100 crs+
My personal view is that he is underballing FY27 as he is conservative. Q3 will be 400 crs and Q4 will also should be similar. In any case atleast 700 crs in H2 has very high visibility.
My view
So 1400cr rev and 120 crs PAT
FY28 1700-1800 crs and 140-150
FY29 2200-2300 crs and 180-200 crs PAT potential
It has a ~20-25% growth potential over the next 2-3 yrs consecutively.
And if they deliver on this , stock should follow. I would not be surprised if this crosses 1000 sometime in FY29/CY28
~Take my views with a pinch of salt and consider it to be biased.
Shree Pushkar is the 2nd sizable company to report results in the HAcid complex
And they didn't disappoint 🙂
Q3 is going to be even better. They are on track to deliver 1400-1500 crs this year and 130 - 150 crs of 40-45 /EPS.
The thing I like about the management is that they are so nimble. They already announced 3000 mtpa capex for chemical. My hunch is that bulk of it going to be HAcid.
Indian system is far superior whether its demat, fund transfers or credit card (otp system)
In the US shares are owned by brokers on behalf of investors. If broker goes bust there is a serious risk that you loose your stocks.
Over ₹100 crore in blue-chip US stocks liquidated without consent. A severe wake up call on intermediary risk for Indian investors.
Nearly 30 Indian retail investors have reportedly suffered losses exceeding ₹100 cr in an alleged unauthorised trading incident involving Stockal Securities & its US brokerage partner DriveWealth.
On 15 Oct, investors claim their US portfolios were liquidated without permission, with blue-chip holdings such as Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla & Alphabet sold and the proceeds used to purchase large quantities of a thinly traded Chinese penny stock, Zhibao Technology (ZBAO).
The stock subsequently crashed nearly 60%. One investor reportedly lost ₹4.26 cr. An FIR has been filed in Bengaluru & complaints have been made to SEBI & the SEC.
Stockal suspects possible phishing or compromised credentials & denies evidence of a breach of its platform. DriveWealth, meanwhile, says the security lapse occurred at Stockal's end & disputes responsibility. Investors are now caught in a blame game, seeking answers & compensation.
A serious reminder that choosing the right intermediary and understanding where your overseas assets are held matter enormously. @Nithin0dha
First Bhageria then Shree Pushkar and now Bodal. The trio of HAcid.
Just finished the bodal call.
Q1 /Q2 av price for HAcid was 600/900 per kg while current prices are 1650.
As one of the largest players , they have running contracts and price increases will get reflected with a lag.
If I assume 1200/1500 for Q3 / Q4 they should be able to do 135-150 / 160-175 crs EBITDA for next 2 qtrs and roughly 475-500 cr for FY27!!
Shree Pushkar is the 2nd sizable company to report results in the HAcid complex
And they didn't disappoint 🙂
Q3 is going to be even better. They are on track to deliver 1400-1500 crs this year and 130 - 150 crs of 40-45 /EPS.
The thing I like about the management is that they are so nimble. They already announced 3000 mtpa capex for chemical. My hunch is that bulk of it going to be HAcid.
This was Bhageria Industries last week.
Now waiting eagerly for Bodal.
First set of HAcid results for Bhageria
I am playing this theme through Shree Pushkar and Bodal.
Bodal is much bigger company and cheaper. This super normal cashflows will allow it to pay down the debt which it took to benzene derivatives capex.
To me structurally Bodal is the biggest beneficiary long term because of this wind fall.
It might do 900-1000 sales for this qtr with 120-140 cr EBITDA with 60-80 crs of PAT (5-6.5/- eps)
Oct to Dec is going to be even better.
It can do 250-300 crs of PAT this yr.
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Lupin sales 30k crs , PAT 5.5k crs, Mkt cap 92k crs
Laurus Labs sales 7.8k crs , PAT 1.3k crs, Mkt cap 120k crs
I will be surprised if Lupin returns doesn't crush Laurus Lab's returns over the next 10 yrs.
Laurus labs.
Since everyone is so bullish let me take the other side.
There is a decent odds of (-2%)- (+2.5%) CAGR at 10 yrs.
12-15% earnings cagr will get me to 75-100 eps and 25-30x multiple gives me 1900 - 3000 as price and that is if they execute well.
If things progress well for India than USD/ INR will be at 90-120 by 2036 and it will put pressure on their margins and multiples will severely compress.
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Laurus labs.
Since everyone is so bullish let me take the other side.
There is a decent odds of (-2%)- (+2.5%) CAGR at 10 yrs.
12-15% earnings cagr will get me to 75-100 eps and 25-30x multiple gives me 1900 - 3000 as price and that is if they execute well.
If things progress well for India than USD/ INR will be at 90-120 by 2036 and it will put pressure on their margins and multiples will severely compress.
First set of HAcid results for Bhageria
I am playing this theme through Shree Pushkar and Bodal.
Bodal is much bigger company and cheaper. This super normal cashflows will allow it to pay down the debt which it took to benzene derivatives capex.
To me structurally Bodal is the biggest beneficiary long term because of this wind fall.
It might do 900-1000 sales for this qtr with 120-140 cr EBITDA with 60-80 crs of PAT (5-6.5/- eps)
Oct to Dec is going to be even better.
It can do 250-300 crs of PAT this yr.
It doesn't work that way. You need a combination of good business and cheap to reasonable valuations and loads of patience for compounding to do its magic.
Divis at 20x+ P/S , 85 PE and 10 yrs sales growth of 11% CAGR excesses of our markets!!!!
We know what is happening to the mightly names like HUL , Asian Paints, Berger, Jubilant Foodworks, Tech stocks
Inka number bhi aayega!
If you pay absurd prices , 9/10 times you will end up with poor returns.
Margin of safety is cornerstone of sensible investing!
Acutaas. Lots of good, well meaning investors are talking about it on X after a decent set of numbers and even better management guidance.
At the onset , let me acknowledge that I don't know enough about the business.
But I know enough about stock market history , where we are in the markets to understand that this offers horrible risk reward for a long term investor at 19-20x sales!!!! and peak margins.
This is at best a momentum play for traders.
Avoid it if you are a long term investor.
~Issued in public interest
A friend of mine was discussing $Acutaas chemicals in an investment WA group.
I had never looked at it. He has pharma expertise and making lot of good points why the business will do great.
I looked at Screener and saw it was roughly trading 20x Revenues!
At that valuation, I don't need to know the business, its an automatic avoid.
I believe $MSFT is one of the greatest businesses of all times certainly so till Smarphones came along.
And this is Mkt cap to Sales for it over its listed history.
You can still make money in Acutaas but if you invest in 10 such companies irrespective of the narrative, in 9 you will loose money. And I am being conservative. Probably 19/20 will loose money.
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Excellent data. Will run this in detail in mid November once we have almost all the results.
What ever be the reasons for price correction in nifty over aug/sep and now in smallcaps in oct.. its hard not to feel bullish if u look only at earnings and ignore all noise.
this is median of all companies (not aggregate).
Sales up 20%, PAT up 27%.
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Indian stocks - This is a real big billion sale. Why are people not excited ?😎
Missed the sale in March ? Don't worry time for another sale! 😜
On a serious note, pick decent companies at attractive prices and leave the rest to time. The IRR will take care of itself.
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I am looking for cheap (on earning capacity) / decent (co has some right to win) and where promoters are buying or bought recently (say last 6 months)
If you have to share one name what would that be?
If for whatever reason you can't do it publicly here dm me.
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This is the single best chart highlighting the attractiveness of Indonesia.
Assuming the payout ratio is not abnormal, one can borrow in local currency and buy stocks.
On a diversified basket of well chosen sustainable high dividend plays you are unlike to loose money and may make 20-30% CAGR over the next few yrs say 3-5 yrs.
🇮🇩 #Indonesia - following this year's decline, equity dividend yield (8.2%) now exceeded 10yr gov't bond yield (7.4%) per Bloomberg data based on broker estimates.
2027 will be interesting with two opposite forces (MSCI threat vs. unusual valuations) for Indonesian equities.
