Ray Zucaro (@RayZucaro) profile picture
Joined January 2022
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Gundlach is the best of the best
A 6% GDP deficit outside of wartime or crisis is historically anomalous, yet the U.S. is already there in fiscal 2026, with the last two months running at 9%. Gundlach sees that pressure, compounded by AI borrowing demand, as the real driver of rate stress.
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Thank you so much for this!!
Replying to @RayZucaro
One of my favorite YouTube channels is Inside China Business. Started by American supply chain and manufacturing expert Kevin Walmsley @35quai The channel is nearly two years old and I've followed it from the start. He has lived in China for 15 years and hosts a nearly daily short form video that is highly sourced, crisp and to the point, that often makes comparisons world wide with China on manufacturing, resources, education, medicine, technology, chips and AI, infrastructure. The only other geopolitics commentator that I follow who has mentioned Walmsley and his content is Larry Johnson. @NewSonof Someone please interview him! youtube.com/watch?v=EJzZFRPn… FYI @TheDuranReal @AXChristoforou @Glenn_Diesen @thecyrusjanssen @reporterfymedia
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All the talk of peace talks and oil gluts was a post-midterm effort to soften today's inflation figures. We are really down to the wire here. The stock market is wobbling and the Fed is signalling 50bps hike next month. The omnicrisis is now right outside the door. 🇺🇸
BREAKING: October CPI inflation rises +0.4% month-over-month, above expectations of +0.3%. Core CPI inflation rose +0.3%, also above expectations of +0.2%. BLS will not be releasing year-over-year figures due to the October 2025 government shutdown. Inflation still appears to be running hot.
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Monthly US inflation for October came in hotter than expected at both the headline and core levels: 0.4% (versus the consensus forecast of 0.3%) and 0.3% (versus 0.2%), respectively. Especially following Governor Waller’s latest comments, you can set aside any debate over whether the Fed will hike by 25 basis points or pause next month; the conversation will center on 25 bps versus 50 bps. (For what it is worth, I am in the 25 bps camp regarding what the Fed will ultimately do.) #economy #markets #federalreserve #inflation
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Foreign-born employment surges by 809,000 in October, while native-born employment declines by 64,000. Foreign-born workers now account for 19.5% of US employment, up from 19.1% in September. Follow: @AFpost
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Super Intelligence is now known as Artificial Intelligence again
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*US IN TALKS WITH VENEZUELA FOR LONG-TERM MILITARY PRESENCE: NYT
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Today in emerging markets history: October 31, 1956 – The Kremlin Decides to Crush Hungary's Revolution On October 31, 1956, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev and the Communist Party Presidium reversed an earlier decision to withdraw Soviet troops from Hungary, setting the stage for one of the Cold War's most consequential military interventions. Eight days earlier, a student demonstration in Budapest had erupted into a nationwide uprising against Soviet domination. Protesters demanded political freedom, economic reforms and the withdrawal of Soviet forces. Hungary's reformist prime minister, Imre Nagy, initially sought to preserve socialism while introducing multiparty government and restoring national sovereignty. For several days, Moscow appeared willing to compromise. But Khrushchev feared that abandoning Hungary would undermine Soviet authority throughout Eastern Europe. Senior officials, including Vyacheslav Molotov and Defense Minister Georgy Zhukov, supported renewed military intervention. The international timing was extraordinary. In February, Khrushchev had denounced Stalin's crimes, encouraging hopes of liberalization across the communist bloc. Poland had experienced its own political upheaval. Meanwhile, the Suez Crisis was unfolding as Britain, France and Israel confronted Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser over his nationalization of the Suez Canal. On November 1, Nagy declared Hungarian neutrality and withdrawal from the Warsaw Pact, unaware that Moscow had already decided to intervene. Before dawn on November 4, Soviet tanks entered Budapest in force. Thousands died during the revolution and its suppression, and approximately 200,000 Hungarians fled abroad. Nagy was arrested and executed in 1958. János Kádár, installed with Soviet backing, would govern Hungary for more than three decades. The United States, under Dwight Eisenhower, condemned the intervention but avoided direct military confrontation with Moscow. The Hungarian Revolution revealed a fundamental contradiction of the Cold War: Moscow could tolerate limited reforms within its empire, but not a satellite state's decision to leave it. Historical note: The decisive Soviet leadership reversal occurred on October 31, before Nagy's November 1 declaration of neutrality and withdrawal from the Warsaw Pact. National Security Archive+2
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When it pops, the world will pop with it...
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ouch....
Economists who map the CPI and PPI into the PCE expect core prices to have increased 0.34% in September (4.2% annualized, 3.1% year-over year) This would be the highest monthly reading since January's 0.40% core PCE print
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Airlines are bracing for years of pain. “Inflation will make people poor,” one airline executive said per FT.
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Bloomberg: *TRUMP’S GASOLINE PRICES SURPASS BIDEN AVERAGE AHEAD OF MIDTERMS
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Chinese crude oil imports are set to hit their higher level since pulling back through the Iran War right in time for the US Midterm elections. Funny, that.
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Spirit Airlines filed for Chapter 11 on August 29th, cited reason; rising fuel costs. Below is the chart of JetBlue airlines debt: @WeTheBrandon ***WTI is up 14.82% month-to-date.*** Winning?
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