Aaron Wiles

🙏🏽

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

NEVER!

BREAKING: Troy Jackson’s projected margin of victory in the Maine Senate race drops to 2.1% from 3.4% yesterday

Voting for Susan Collins because she brings money to Maine while voting to take away your rights is crazy work!

Raiders RB Dylan Laube is the first player in the NFL this season to return a kickoff for a touchdown.

DSA candidate Tim Denson tries to sell the crowd on “democratizing the workplace” and says Walmart should belong to the workers. Big mistake. The guy 6 ft away from him grew up in Venezuela. And he’s heard this communist fairy tale before. DANIEL DI MARTINO: “So you want to take it [Walmart] from its owners and have the workers do what?” TIM DENSON: “I want the workers to own it and get paid better and have better benefits and be able to provide better lives for their families.” DI MARTINO: “We can buy shares in Walmart right now. In fact, all of the SpaceX workers became millionaires overnight.” “You can start a workers’ cooperative right now. It’s legal, but under a socialist country, you’re not allowed to own your own property and start your own private corporation.” Denson tried to refute Di Martino’s point. Then Di Martino dropped this line on him: DI MARTINO: “It’s very easy to be a socialist in a capitalist country. It’s illegal to be a capitalist in a socialist country. That is the difference.” [audience applause] Then it got personal: DI MARTINO: “When I had to go to the grocery store, Tim, I had to put my fingerprint in a scanning machine so that they would tell me what I was allowed to purchase.” “And I could only go Mondays and Saturdays because we have to ration food, because that’s what happens when there’s no profit motive and the farmers, their food is confiscated because they had to sell it to the government and everybody else at the price the government tells the farmers.” “My mom made chocolate bonbons for parties.” “Well, people have a right to chocolate, so we had a price control on chocolate.” “So my mom had to buy counterfeit chocolate, put it in black bags as if we were cocaine drug dealers. That’s what socialism was in Venezuela. That’s what worker ownership of the means of production is.” “Where has it ever worked?” Denson had no answer. Because there isn’t one.

Are fucking kidding? Texas flipped blue???