Let's spell out the ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 and $USDE thesis very simply Following the fee switch vote, the only thing that matters for ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 economics is USDE circulation, which is a function of distribution and adoption Market cap has gone up $500M in a month and has been adding $20-$40M daily through the weekends Underlying yield is boosted by greater funding rate arb in crypto and soon to take a stepwise jump when the rumored @tradexyz equity perp funding rate arb partnership kicks in @RobinhoodCrypto Chain added $320M in 2 months. Just getting started. Haven't seen any uplift yet from @EthenaPay but of course that's forthcoming too Every trend says $7.5B is much, much closer than market gives credit for, and of course current valuations give zero value for any of the $10B+ ratchet-ups And you get all this at a 40%+ effective discount by owning the DAT $USDC which most people don't even know is in existence Yeah, we're running $PURR back all over again CC: @tedchenCPC @gdog97_

CoreWeave puts

🇺🇸🇺🇦🇳🇴🇫🇮A U.S. official said the talks President Trump’s Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held today with President Zelensky and the leaders of Norway and Finland were "very productive and constructive”  🇺🇸🇺🇦The U.S. official said Ukraine "brought forward new ideas and proposals, which were discussed in detail” and claimed the parties made "meaningful progress in aligning on a coordinated approach to engaging Russia and advancing the diplomatic process” 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇪🇺The U.S. official said there is now "strong alignment at the working level” between the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe on the next steps and there is "a shared commitment to finding practical solutions to end the war” 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺The discussions on Tuesday in Oslo covered the elements of a comprehensive peace framework, including long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, a post-war economic and prosperity plan, and a "broader European security architecture designed to create lasting stability”. 🇺🇸🇷🇺Witkoff will meet with President Putin tomorrow, with Jared Kushner participating virtually, the U.S. official said. 🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦The U.S. official said: "The goal is to build on the progress made with Ukraine and Europe, discuss the proposals with Russia, and create a pathway toward direct trilateral and broader multilateral negotiations”

I've concluded that the main disconnect in the market on neoclouds, especially with high optical leverage like $CRWV, stems from a lack of understanding of DDTLs (deferred draw term loans) A simple diagram below for our visual learners In summary: if you haven't studied the capital structure deeply you are (1) overestimating interest payments, (2) overestimating out-year net debt, and (3) underestimating built-in optionality to defer taking on liabilities if compute conditions are not favorable. You are also not taking into account the ability for revenue/pricing to be hiked given the crunch in compute because you didn't read the hyperscaler agreements where this call option is built-in. Hence you are modeling not only the worst case but a case worse than the worst case and letting price action confirm your superficial understanding of the situation. $CRWV is not my favorite expression on AI/compute ($WULF is the one) but it has the most reflexivity to the upside precisely because of how byzantine the financial structure is. The equity will rip new assholes in the next few days and that's the short-term trade. Good luck to all

Blockchain aside. One thing I feel pretty strongly about is that if you're a markets person, you should probably invest a little bit of time thinking about perpetuals, and how they work. Anyway, Sub to the newsletter here. bloomberg.com/account/newsle…

I've concluded that the main disconnect in the market on neoclouds, especially with high optical leverage like $CRWV, stems from a lack of understanding of DDTLs (deferred draw term loans) A simple diagram below for our visual learners In summary: if you haven't studied the capital structure deeply you are (1) overestimating interest payments, (2) overestimating out-year net debt, and (3) underestimating built-in optionality to defer taking on liabilities if compute conditions are not favorable. You are also not taking into account the ability for revenue/pricing to be hiked given the crunch in compute because you didn't read the hyperscaler agreements where this call option is built-in. Hence you are modeling not only the worst case but a case worse than the worst case and letting price action confirm your superficial understanding of the situation. $CRWV is not my favorite expression on AI/compute ($WULF is the one) but it has the most reflexivity to the upside precisely because of how byzantine the financial structure is. The equity will rip new assholes in the next few days and that's the short-term trade. Good luck to all

“At the moment, we have more compute capacity than we have demand [...]” Ok @Gartner_inc, this is nonsense. We are *massively* compute constrained. Our portfolio companies are struggling to find capacity. Full article here: cnbc.com/2026/10/19/gartner-…

$CRWV - COREWEAVE ANNOUNCES ADDITIONAL 10% HIKE IN HOURLY GPU PRICING AT RECENT CUSTOMER EVENT — THE INFORMATION, CITING AN ATTENDEE

$CRM SALESFORCE TO BUY BRAZE FOR $BRZE $47.50 IN CASH/SHR IN CASH

“.. At the moment, we have more compute capacity than we have demand, and we have a lot of the tokens and processing power being given away in freemium solutions,” he told @CNBC. “Everyone in the AI race is running for a last-man standing position.” cnbc.com/2026/10/19/gartner-…

This is a very good example of a thoughtful CoreWeave analysis that leads to a pessimistic conclusion. I do believe many serious investors must be following a similar logic, but it has important gaps that are worth expanding on, and when doing so, the picture changes quite a bit First of all, and most importantly, it treats $CRWV financing structure as essentially static, when it’s clearly not Scheduled principal amortization isn’t equivalent to an unavoidable cash drain. CoreWeave has multiple refinancing channels, including OEM financing, GPU-backed DDTLs and increasingly sophisticated investment grade, non-recourse structures backed by specific customer contracts. The $8.5B DDTL 4.0 is a particularly relevant precedent. Ignoring the ability to refinance or replace maturing obligations materially exaggerates the liquidity gap Second, interest is being double-counted. Cash interest is already reflected in operating cash flow and therefore FCF. Adding another $2B/$4B of interest to negative FCF overstates the funding requirement. And interest expense isn’t necessarily the same as cash interest paid Similarly, the capex analysis conflates reported capital investment with actual cash expenditure. In H1 2026, CoreWeave spent $14.1B in cash on PP&E, not $17.1B. And again, OEM financing, equipment payables and payment timing matter enormously here Finally, the analysis ignores the self-amortizing nature of much of the asset-backed debt. Existing GPU clusters generate contracted cash flows that progressively repay their own financing, while mature cohorts can eventually release cash to fund new deployments You cannot model a highly structured, asset-backed financing business by extrapolating negative FCF, adding scheduled debt repayments, and effectively assuming refinancing markets are closed The relevant question is how much residual capital CoreWeave needs after secured financing, OEM arrangements, customer prepayments and cash generated by existing deployments That’s a much more nuanced (and considerably less apocalyptic) picture than the one presented here