NEW: There is over a 50% chance that Jarren Duran is moved this offseason, via Kalshi. $100 on Duran to be on the Red Sox by Opening Day pays out $205.45. What team would be the best fit for the Red Sox OF?

Hit a hole-in-one. Free mattresses if the team wins. You went to an insurance company that specialized in calculating the odds. That was probably until 2006. Then it moved to Las Vegas, where ticket brokers holding inventory for one team would bet against that team to hedge. Then, by 2018, it moved to online sportsbooks. Now it's happening on prediction markets. An LA-based restaurant group put $60,000 on Kalshi before the NLCS that the Dodgers would lose to the Brewers. Why? They calculated that a Dodgers World Series run would bring in an extra $120,000. No run, $0. So they hedged. Guaranteed $60,000 either way. The Dodgers lost. The $60,000 grossed $120,000. Why an exchange and not a sportsbook? At a sportsbook, your price is locked. The only way out is a cash-out, and that number is set by the book's algorithm. On an exchange, there's thousands of competing buyers on the other side. The price moves. It's a reflection of the market, and you can take it or leave it at any point. The speculators who believed the Dodgers would win provided the liquidity the sportsbook never did. Marketplaces like Kalshi are giving businesses the exchange that prize indemnity and sportsbooks never could. Because the other side is real.

NEW: The Brewers now have a 65.7% chance on Kalshi to win the World Series. Can the Guardians or Rays give them a run for their money?

NEW: A Kalshi user purchased the Guardians to win the World Series at an average price of 1.43% for a combined cost of $1,712. Their original position is now worth $22,935. A Cleveland championship wins them $120,080... should this user SELL or HOLD?

Kalshi traders are forecasting 2.7 walk-offs to occur in the 2026 MLB Playoffs. Jackson Chourio already hit the first one in Milwaukee's series vs the Padres. Who will be the next postseason hero?

Chances to win the World Series, via Kalshi; 43.7% — Dodgers 23.0% — Brewers 22.7% — Rays 10.2% — Guardians Who’s taking home the hardware?

World Series MVP Power Rankings, via Kalshi: 1. Shohei Ohtani (11.0%) 2. Jackson Chourio (9.5%) 3. Junior Caminero (7.9%) 4. Jacob Misiorowski (5.6%) 5. Tarik Skubal (5.0%) 6. Freddie Freeman (4.8%) 7. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (4.7%) 8. Drew Rasmussen (4.3%) 9. William Contreras (3.8%) 10. Mookie Betts (3.6%)