Founder of @harecrypta | Researcher with Alpha | Trader @lighter_xyz @variational_io @polymarket
Joined March 2021
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Read a bit more on labour market vs AI
what I found that’s interesting
11 days.
- That is what Claude needed to formalize Fermat’s Last Theorem in Lean, with dozens of agents and about 6b output tokens.
- Experts expected years.
The mathematicians are not asking society to stop that. - 28 Fields Medallists signed against unverified results announced as PR.
- Tao uses AI every day and signed anyway.
- Their complaint is the trade
the lab keeps the announcement, the field inherits the unpaid checking.
Nobody is hiring the young. It's real issue.
- Calling that entitled gets the subsidy backwards and the labor market runs the same trade.
- Nobody is firing anyone yet, nobody is hiring the young, a 19% relative gap for 22 to 25 year olds in the most exposed jobs, entry postings down 7.5% while senior postings grow 14.7%.
- Firms keep the gain, society keeps the broken first rung.
- Own the robots fixes it for one person, the top 1% already hold 51% of US equities.
I write the AI specs and the refusalsand I own the outcome.
That job exists while a human keeps the right to stop the machine.
my 2 cents on mathematicians crashing out over AI:
AI doesn't stop you from enjoying math. What's actually happening is that it's threatening your sense of being useful. While I understand this fear, it's also entitled to expect society to stop technological progress, preserve your livelihood and relevance just because you enjoy your work.
Math isn't special here. It already happened and will happen for many more professions, it's just that most mathematicians made their entire identity about math, so it's unsurprising that they're more upset.
Ultimately, all these professional crashouts share the same underlying question society needs to solve: how do we secure people's livelihoods and build meaningful lives when human labor is no longer needed?
Personally, I find it very easy to accept that my work might no longer be needed and to find meaning elsewhere. (have these people ever done any introspection or read a philosophy book, lol?)
A fight to the death for $80k on $BTC
Kangaroo vs bears! 🐻 vs 🦘
The bulls are nowhere near, grazing somewhere behind the mountains, they don't even want to join this battle. 🤣
Hayes is wrong!
Everyone is expecting $BTC dump below 80k, but the strength of the sideways movement and the passive inertia of market are very powerful.
I still hold out hope that even if a war with Iran breaks out, we along with the altcoins will manage to hold the 80k level.
As for me, I’m loading up on more at this moment.
GM X!
We can stay within a range, both bulls and bears are weak, while the kangaroo is stronger than ever!
Did you know that a kangaroo symbolizes a sideways market?
✅ Brazil voted on Sunday.
- Polymarket had Flávio at 78% with $189m traded while the poll average was 51.2 to 48.8.
- Lula won.
- The market didn't read the polls better, it read its own crowd.
✅ That is the interesting weekend gap.
- Robinhood Chain says almost 60% of stock token trading happens outside Wall Street hours, $532m on weekends in one month.
- Variational swaps still close on Friday. Why and when?
✅ Extended prints first this autumn
- 30% to points, tokenomics Oct 31, token in Nov.
- its $ per point becomes the benchmark for Variational OTC
GM X!
The First Frost 🥶
- Is this the end for crypto, now that even a16z is trimming its portfolio and looking away from the sector?
- Everyone is waiting for the cycles to return, but what’s actually happening?
- Almost nothing, just local events, a few ups and downs and mostly sideways movement.
- Are you still expecting any life-changing involvements from crypto, dex perps, from meme or NFTs?
- Personally my main focus is only Variational and the periodically trading of memecoins play that manages to take off.
Hayes is wrong!
Everyone is expecting $BTC dump below 80k, but the strength of the sideways movement and the passive inertia of market are very powerful.
I still hold out hope that even if a war with Iran breaks out, we along with the altcoins will manage to hold the 80k level.
As for me, I’m loading up on more at this moment.
Plural partnerships, yes.
- On Variational Omni you never trade against a dealer
OLP is the sole counterparty and hedges outside.
-On Pro there is no OLP at all
a fund posts an RFQ, several dealers quote, both sides lock $USDC in a settlement pool, risk stays bilateral. Pro cannot launch with one partner.
It needs a quoting consortium, anchor takers and someone to clear and finance OLP's hedges.
- The same settlement pools serve both products: Omni, Pro and TradFi in one breath.
My suggestions
✅ A dealer consortium that quotes Pro and feeds Omni's swaps
DRW/Cumberland
IMC
Flow Traders
Optiver
Chicago and Amsterdam, the cities Lucas named
✅ Anchor takers where the pain is Asia, where OTC still trades by phone.
The 2025 strategic round (Mirana, Caladan, Zoku) was already described as Pro design partners.
✅ One clearing and financing counterparty behind OLP Marex
StoneX
or a bank swap desk.
✅ A bank, if any, as a closed pilot
Citi for on-chain FX, Goldman for OTC options.
✅ 100% of treasury revenue to buybacks,
Pro is the revenue and a dealer seat priced in $VAR explains why the 50% team and investor split is still unpublished.
The dealer and the investor are the same name
Reached $100m.
On one hand, you look forward to the big Variational TGE event.
But on the other, there’s a gut feeling that Variational is the last solid, substantial crypto airdrop for cryptans, but after that - nothing.
Plural partnerships, yes.
- On Variational Omni you never trade against a dealer
OLP is the sole counterparty and hedges outside.
-On Pro there is no OLP at all
a fund posts an RFQ, several dealers quote, both sides lock $USDC in a settlement pool, risk stays bilateral. Pro cannot launch with one partner.
It needs a quoting consortium, anchor takers and someone to clear and finance OLP's hedges.
- The same settlement pools serve both products: Omni, Pro and TradFi in one breath.
My suggestions
✅ A dealer consortium that quotes Pro and feeds Omni's swaps
DRW/Cumberland
IMC
Flow Traders
Optiver
Chicago and Amsterdam, the cities Lucas named
✅ Anchor takers where the pain is Asia, where OTC still trades by phone.
The 2025 strategic round (Mirana, Caladan, Zoku) was already described as Pro design partners.
✅ One clearing and financing counterparty behind OLP Marex
StoneX
or a bank swap desk.
✅ A bank, if any, as a closed pilot
Citi for on-chain FX, Goldman for OTC options.
✅ 100% of treasury revenue to buybacks,
Pro is the revenue and a dealer seat priced in $VAR explains why the 50% team and investor split is still unpublished.
The dealer and the investor are the same name
Who pays when the agent buys the wrong thing in Web4?
41 cents.
Average agent payment on x402 over twelve months: $73m across 176m transactions,
98.6% in $USDC
87% < $0.1
Instinct, the largest consumer agent, is nearing $1b a year of purchases on the user's own card, founder-reported.
Two economies of Web4
✅ Cents go in stablecoins.
A card cannot charge two cents per model call, so x402 today is mostly a meter for API, data and compute
✅ Dollars go on cards
- saved credential
-credit line
- fraud controls
-refunds
- millions of merchants.
Instinct's terms say it is not a party to the purchase. OpenAI pulled its first checkout after six months, 30 live merchants against a million promised
✅ The rails converge.
Mastercard already signs a voucher inside a mandate and settles in $USDC.
The card keeps the trust layer, the chain gets the cheap settlement
✅ The primitive is a budget, not a wallet:
amount,
period,
scope,
price cap,
refund rule,
revocation,
loss bearer.
MetaMask, Coinbase and the card mandates are building the same object.
The bottleneck is no longer intelligence, it is permission
✅ Agent tokens sit outside both rails.
Virtuals
$479m of agent GDP, $1.16m of agent revenue, jobs settle in USDC.
Volume is not income
The unsolved market is liability.
who pays when the agent buys the wrong thing.
I think the first Web4 scandal will not be a hack.
It will be a personal agent paid up to 30% by the hotel it recommended.
Whose agent is it then?
Thoughs on Web4
$2.2b - 100% crypto on May 5.
The same $2.2b - A16z frontier on Oct 22.
The money did not move.
Read Dixon's letter for what stayed
- stablecoins
- programmable rails
- machine to machine transactions
- networks built for machines.
Everything that stayed is money.
- Web3 was own.
- Web4 is act, the actor is not you.
- Web4 is the internet where the counterparty is a machine with a budget.
What money looks like when the user is a AI agent
✅ The primitive is a budget, not a wallet.
An agent needs a unit that does not move while the task runs and a rule that reserves the cost before the call. Stablecoins win by default.
A volatile token cannot be a budget
✅ Markets go RFQ first.
An agent asks for a firm price for a size, it does not sit in a book.
Order books become the human legacy UI.
✅ The log becomes collateral.
Agents will need credit, credit needs history, an agent's history is its receipts.
Know your agent replaces know your customer
✅ Airdrop points die.
An airdrop assumes a human on the other side.
With agents as users Sybil is free and infinite, so incentives move to rebates on fees actually paid.
This cycle is the last one designed for people (Variational is last)
✅ A token per agent is payroll and payroll gets sold. Agent tokens will graduate at pump rates, 1 in 58
The money does not go to Web4 tokens.
It goes to whoever holds the agent's budget:
- the rails
- the permission layer
- the venue that quotes,
- the card in the agent's pocket.
Whoever manages your agent’s budget effectively is the clear winner of this new era.
Plural partnerships, yes.
- On Variational Omni you never trade against a dealer
OLP is the sole counterparty and hedges outside.
-On Pro there is no OLP at all
a fund posts an RFQ, several dealers quote, both sides lock $USDC in a settlement pool, risk stays bilateral. Pro cannot launch with one partner.
It needs a quoting consortium, anchor takers and someone to clear and finance OLP's hedges.
- The same settlement pools serve both products: Omni, Pro and TradFi in one breath.
My suggestions
✅ A dealer consortium that quotes Pro and feeds Omni's swaps
DRW/Cumberland
IMC
Flow Traders
Optiver
Chicago and Amsterdam, the cities Lucas named
✅ Anchor takers where the pain is Asia, where OTC still trades by phone.
The 2025 strategic round (Mirana, Caladan, Zoku) was already described as Pro design partners.
✅ One clearing and financing counterparty behind OLP Marex
StoneX
or a bank swap desk.
✅ A bank, if any, as a closed pilot
Citi for on-chain FX, Goldman for OTC options.
✅ 100% of treasury revenue to buybacks,
Pro is the revenue and a dealer seat priced in $VAR explains why the 50% team and investor split is still unpublished.
The dealer and the investor are the same name
Feel like a lot of people overlooked one detail in Variational’s announcement:
“Major strategic partnerships.” Plural.
Lucas Schuermann previously worked at Goldman Sachs, and he already hinted months ago that some of the largest institutional market makers are providing liquidity for Variational’s RWA markets.
Now they’re delaying $VAR for partnerships that “redefine Variational’s trajectory.”
I have a feeling we’re about to see some very familiar TradFi names.
Jane Street? Citadel Securities? Virtu? IMC? Maybe even GS, CITI, JP or HSBC?
Lucas mentioned Tier 1 MMs, so these names are definitely possible. Would be a huge catalyst for every holder of $VAR.
Thoughs on Web4
$2.2b - 100% crypto on May 5.
The same $2.2b - A16z frontier on Oct 22.
The money did not move.
Read Dixon's letter for what stayed
- stablecoins
- programmable rails
- machine to machine transactions
- networks built for machines.
Everything that stayed is money.
- Web3 was own.
- Web4 is act, the actor is not you.
- Web4 is the internet where the counterparty is a machine with a budget.
What money looks like when the user is a AI agent
✅ The primitive is a budget, not a wallet.
An agent needs a unit that does not move while the task runs and a rule that reserves the cost before the call. Stablecoins win by default.
A volatile token cannot be a budget
✅ Markets go RFQ first.
An agent asks for a firm price for a size, it does not sit in a book.
Order books become the human legacy UI.
✅ The log becomes collateral.
Agents will need credit, credit needs history, an agent's history is its receipts.
Know your agent replaces know your customer
✅ Airdrop points die.
An airdrop assumes a human on the other side.
With agents as users Sybil is free and infinite, so incentives move to rebates on fees actually paid.
This cycle is the last one designed for people (Variational is last)
✅ A token per agent is payroll and payroll gets sold. Agent tokens will graduate at pump rates, 1 in 58
The money does not go to Web4 tokens.
It goes to whoever holds the agent's budget:
- the rails
- the permission layer
- the venue that quotes,
- the card in the agent's pocket.
Whoever manages your agent’s budget effectively is the clear winner of this new era.
GM X!
The First Frost 🥶
- Is this the end for crypto, now that even a16z is trimming its portfolio and looking away from the sector?
- Everyone is waiting for the cycles to return, but what’s actually happening?
- Almost nothing, just local events, a few ups and downs and mostly sideways movement.
- Are you still expecting any life-changing involvements from crypto, dex perps, from meme or NFTs?
- Personally my main focus is only Variational and the periodically trading of memecoins play that manages to take off.
GM X!
Are you a gem-X-seeker like me - someone who loves speed and the cold, no matter the weather?
✅ Lucas on the Variational Space
- swaps now take 70 to 80% of daily volume on many products.
- Pro is not an exchange and does not want to be one: bilateral RFQ, settlement pools, ISDA on top.
- The CFTC proposal from Oct 5 is about retail leverage through FCMs.
Institutional OTC under ISDA is a room that proposal does not touch and that is where Pro goes in 2027. Omni was the test version $VAR
✅ Lighter from the Q3 call
- no 25% cliff. The 500m insider tokens vest linearly over 36 months starting late January, about 3.2m a week.
- The Q3 buyback burned 2452017 $LIT. Less than one week of vesting
+29 Variational points this week.
(29*40 = $1160 current OTC price)
1. The same strategy, but Variational has adjusted the leverage for many pairs to 10x.
2. Just look for trending coins, these coins were moving well along a mini-trend
$Q long
$US100 short
+45 Variational points this week.
(46*40 = $1840 current OTC price)
1. Throughout the day, I use Crypto or TradeFi to look for pairs like ethereum:0x6944e1df6bf5972305f9ab25df47ef10de01bcc8 with the lowest Open Interest
- Enter positions of min $2k, where volatility minimal, so I just hold the positions min 2 hours.
2. Just look for trending coins, these coins were moving well along a mini-trend
ethereum:0x0d8775f648430679a709e98d2b0cb6250d2887ef
$NATGAZ
$ZK
You can still join this grand journey for $300 per point
omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
GM X!
Are you a gem-X-seeker like me - someone who loves speed and the cold, no matter the weather?
✅ Lucas on the Variational Space
- swaps now take 70 to 80% of daily volume on many products.
- Pro is not an exchange and does not want to be one: bilateral RFQ, settlement pools, ISDA on top.
- The CFTC proposal from Oct 5 is about retail leverage through FCMs.
Institutional OTC under ISDA is a room that proposal does not touch and that is where Pro goes in 2027. Omni was the test version $VAR
✅ Lighter from the Q3 call
- no 25% cliff. The 500m insider tokens vest linearly over 36 months starting late January, about 3.2m a week.
- The Q3 buyback burned 2452017 $LIT. Less than one week of vesting
GM X!
The autumn vibes and some thoughts about the Leverage life.
- for two years now $BTC has done its real moving in 3-4 days every month or two, then grinds sideways in a range.
- that range is where most people lose.
- everyone waits pump or dump but 90% of the time nothing happens at all, except stop-losses getting hit.
- perhaps that’s why products like papertrade emerged, offering people the chance to play in a casino with 1000x leverage.
$CRWV might be the clearest test of what the market values right now:
future revenue or current debt?
- consensus sees $27b in sales next year, the stock trades at ~1.3x forward sales, and EBIT is expected to turn after 2027.
- but debt-to-equity is above 1000% and EBIT doesn't matter when all your revenue goes to interest.
- In the AI trade the most leveraged names got hit first and hardest.
Are you also waiting for the European indexes to short swaps on Variational?
Europe's a mess, the most obvious play right now is shorting their indexes
GER30, FRA40, EU50, ITA40, IB35 SWD30, SWS20
Ok, guys!
I earned and staked 1000 $PAPER
The mechanics is clear:
1) lose - mint paper token
2) win - make a profit
3) a huge number solana:HNHkQkiku8h1sWoWPtq7QC8paEFZYs2J3RpZkGKHSViz of early-stage $8.6b have already been minted
4) $USDC rewards are taking a very long time to compensate the initial lost, unlike the minting process itself.
Is it even worth the effort?
To say I’m in shock is an understatement.
Hitting 3rd place among by @papertrade_xyz the top daily earners, so quickly and suddenly!
$2.34m per day
How? Why?
Are we all just degenerate gamblers, hell-bent on losing our money as fast as possible using 1000x leverage!?
To say I’m in shock is an understatement.
Hitting 3rd place among by @papertrade_xyz the top daily earners, so quickly and suddenly!
$2.34m per day
How? Why?
Are we all just degenerate gamblers, hell-bent on losing our money as fast as possible using 1000x leverage!?
GM X!
The autumn vibes and some thoughts about the Leverage life.
- for two years now $BTC has done its real moving in 3-4 days every month or two, then grinds sideways in a range.
- that range is where most people lose.
- everyone waits pump or dump but 90% of the time nothing happens at all, except stop-losses getting hit.
- perhaps that’s why products like papertrade emerged, offering people the chance to play in a casino with 1000x leverage.
$CRWV might be the clearest test of what the market values right now:
future revenue or current debt?
- consensus sees $27b in sales next year, the stock trades at ~1.3x forward sales, and EBIT is expected to turn after 2027.
- but debt-to-equity is above 1000% and EBIT doesn't matter when all your revenue goes to interest.
- In the AI trade the most leveraged names got hit first and hardest.
GM X!
The autumn vibes and some thoughts about the Leverage life.
- for two years now $BTC has done its real moving in 3-4 days every month or two, then grinds sideways in a range.
- that range is where most people lose.
- everyone waits pump or dump but 90% of the time nothing happens at all, except stop-losses getting hit.
- perhaps that’s why products like papertrade emerged, offering people the chance to play in a casino with 1000x leverage.
$CRWV might be the clearest test of what the market values right now:
future revenue or current debt?
- consensus sees $27b in sales next year, the stock trades at ~1.3x forward sales, and EBIT is expected to turn after 2027.
- but debt-to-equity is above 1000% and EBIT doesn't matter when all your revenue goes to interest.
- In the AI trade the most leveraged names got hit first and hardest.
GM X!
The motivation is quite simple and it sparks a drive.
A love for nature, a passion for commerce, an attraction to art and vibrant, colorful arts! Golden autumn. 🍂
GM X!
The roads vary, the trains are green or red and our tracks switch between green and red, just like trading.
Lately, I’ve been actively trading not only on Variational but also on memecoins.
(some profits in replies today)
✅ Anthropic pre-IPO perps trade on 12 venues with over $100m open interest, $43m of it on Entropy @entropyIO
- price the company near $2t against a $965b round in May.
- the price is an oracle guess until the real print:
Binance says it rescales if the share count misses by 3%, Entropy settles by TWAP in August 2028 if no listing comes.
Roadshow $ANTH is expected mid October
✅ Variational unclaimed genesis $VAR gets burned.
- The claim deadline is not published anywhere, so the burn size is a number the deadline decides, not the farmers
✅ CFTC's first crypto rules touch leverage, margin and financing only, through FCMs.
- a coin moved to your own wallet within 28 days counts as actual delivery, proof of reserves for omnibus accounts, listing reviews that read vesting schedules. 60 days to comment
✅ Lighter burned 2.4m LIT for Q3.
The Dec 27 cliff is 500m. $LIT The burn covers 0.5% of it
celestia:native with revenue $5 per day is quite a surprise!
It’s trying to break through the $0.65 resistance level.
Honestly I find it hard to believe myself.
+45 Variational points this week.
(46*40 = $1840 current OTC price)
1. Throughout the day, I use Crypto or TradeFi to look for pairs like ethereum:0x6944e1df6bf5972305f9ab25df47ef10de01bcc8 with the lowest Open Interest
- Enter positions of min $2k, where volatility minimal, so I just hold the positions min 2 hours.
2. Just look for trending coins, these coins were moving well along a mini-trend
ethereum:0x0d8775f648430679a709e98d2b0cb6250d2887ef
$NATGAZ
$ZK