Rahul Sharma

Burberry says Gen-Z big driver of outperformance in China and sees more resilience. $BURBY says local demand in most geographies is healthy - bar Americans who are still powering global travel, sales to locals are driver of luxury. $LVMUY $HESAY $RL $TPR $CFRUY $ZGN $EL $LRLCY

Burberry reports strong numbers to Sept, led by US +11% & China +5%. More evidence RTW + luxury brands with accessible price points ($BURBY, $ZGN, $RL, $TPR, $EL, $LRLCY) doing much better vs malaise at LV, Gucci etc after aggressive post COVID pricing. $LVMUY $HESAY $PPRUY

$COF with much broader customer base than Big 4 banks says enduring labor market strength (5 years+ of UE < 5%) driving spend, payment rates & credit quality. Solid wage gains starting to lag inflation, but being offset by higher hours worked. $XLY $XLF $JPM $BAC $V $MA $AXP

$ABNB expects momentum to continue - Q4 room nights will be up 10%+ with rates up. Beauty is cash flow rich business model: even with the jump in stock price after hours, this earnings stream growing well north of 10% is still at a 5% free cash flow yield.

$ABNB shows not just general travel strength but how model is pulling away from peers like $BKNG, despite fears of regulatory backlash & branding. Room nights grew 10%+ in all geographies, including the US. Benefiting from even higher growth in less mature Asia & Lat Am.

Superlative Q at $ABNB, accelerating 600bp(!) on gross booking value to remarkable 21%, marking best Q in travel space. Led by room nights +16%. Remember much smaller $BKNG was only +7% this Q. High growth alongside high free cash flow. 🔥 $DAL $UAL $MAR $HLT $CCL

Parker the 🐐x2... Sales 4% ahead, earnings 9% ahead. Orders now running mid-teens, with double-digit growth even in industrial businesses. Upshot of terrific record? $PH consistently cheaper than it looks as street keeps playing catch-up 🔥

Costco maintains strong US comp pace of +8% ex gas. in November. US traffic solid 3.8%, again signalling share gains and US consumer strength. Discretionary non food strongest again, high single digits, led by sporting goods & homewares. 💪 $COST $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF $XRT

Polo looks just like Coach, with blockbuster full-price comps, strong margin & strength around globe. Like $TPR, Asia (China) showed outsize momentum in sign both $RL & Coach are thriving there benefiting from fatigue with higher end brands like LV & Gucci. $LVMUY

Impressive Q at $TPR, with Coach accelerating 200bp to +16%, even as US slowed further to healthy +7%. China was driver, while ROW also strong. Sign aggressive luxury pricing & brand fatigue at LV, Gucci et al helping upscale brands gain volume & value share. $RL $LVMUY $PPRUY

US travel strength remarkable, but strength is evident everywhere bar China & understandably, Middle East, with both occupancy and rates up. Consumers everywhere hot on travel. As rates soar, franchise fees but especially incentive fees are spiking. $MAR $HLT $ABNB $BKNG

Marriott US revpar +7.4%, 250bp faster than Q2 as travel remains robust. As at $HLT, high end led charge, revpar striking +12% but even economy chains +6%. $MAR global revpar +6.5% vs guide 3.5-4% & sees strong Q4, lifting guide. 💪 $HLT $ABNB $BKNG $AXP $XY $XLF $DAL $UAL

If there's anything to give folks pause, it's that Estee beat Q by 21¢, yet lifted guide by 10¢. Cynics will say that's because stuffing China duty free drove upside. But strength across category & geography suggests this is past low balling $EL was once famous for. $LRLCY

Two things stand out on Estee margin - how geared portfolio is to skin & how sensitive that division is to sales growth. Second, after long being inferior to peers, fragrance gaining traction: 20% sales growth but also a very meaningful profit center. $EL $LRLCY $ULTA $LVMUY

Evident at Estee as at L'Oreal: broad geographical strength in sales/margin for premium beauty. US up after 18 months of declines, China up, EMs strong. Duty free strong & this Q in Asia-Pac shows how powerful a margin driver that is. $EL $LRLCY $PG $UL $LVMUY $HESAY $ULTA

On heels of L'Oreal, excellent Estee Q = premium beauty back in sweetspot. Growth across categories, led by high end. High-margin skincare growing both at top & lower end plus $EL finally(!) catches some of fragrance fairy dust 🔥🔥🔥 $LRLCY $ULTA $PG $UL $LVMUY $HESAY

Some concern over $AMZN losing ad momentum in Q3. Here it says ex 850bp shift on Prime Day alone, ad spend was +21%. In addition, lack of NBA + lapping tougher compares & underlying picture much rosier. $GOOGL $META

$AMZN free cash flow awful at -$35 billion due to lumpy capex, despite operating cash flow +20%. Will spend more next year but Q4 '26 capex will fall to $45 billion & should generate free cash. Also note transformation of balance sheet as payables dramatically outpace inventory.

While Jassy is sticking to his capex plans, he gives unusually long defence of what $AMZN is doing as feeling some heat. He's spot on about retail. Still growing 11% in very cash generative US retail even with $110 billion in sales every quarter, with new, high margin streams.

Adjust for 500bp Prime Day shift = $AMZN Retail Q3 strong: US still double digit +11% & International +13%. Subscriptions steady +12% & 3P best in 2 years 13%+. Ads +12% with higher shift impact. Margin at new Q3 high. Fret about AI capex but core isn't problem here unlike $GOOGL