Research Economist @DallasFed (my views, not Fed views). Previously @federalreserve, @PrincetonEcon, @ITAM_mx.
Dallas, TX
Joined August 2009
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Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
Excited to launch a Research Affiliate Program in partnership with @SMUEconDept! We're welcoming 5 scholars to the Dallas Fed to strengthen ties between our Research Dept. and leading scholars at local universities. Meet the inaugural cohort: dallasfed.org/research/econo… #EconTwitter
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
Super interesting!
"Globalization, Inflation Dynamics, and the Slope of the Phillips Curve" by Colin Hottman and Ricardo Reyes-Heroles.
"We study how international trade has affected U.S. inflation dynamics. We develop a multiregion New Keynesian model of an open monetary union in which regional Phillips curve slopes depend on exposure to imported goods. Guided by the model, we construct statelevel measures of import penetration in final consumption and exploit cross-state variation to estimate regional Phillips curves over 1976-2017. Greater import exposure leads to significantly atter state-level Phillips curves. We estimate that rising import exposure accounts for roughly 40 percent of the flattening of the U.S. Phillips curve over this period. Increased import exposure also shifted the U.S. Phillips curve downward, reducing inflation by about 0.17 percentage point annually between 1976 and 2008. A reversal of globalization to early-1990s levels would substantially alter monetary policy trade-offs, reducing the sacrifice ratio by almost one-half. Our findings show that international trade has played a quantitatively important role in shaping U.S. inflation dynamics."
dallasfed.org/~/media/docume…
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
It's nice to see this out! Tryg and I rely on a NK model of the global economy with trade disruptions---developed by @pcubab, @Albert_Queralto, Mikael Scaramucci and I in recent research---to quantify the net inflationary effects of the Hormuz closure and the IEEPA tariffs ruling
New research finds that increased costs due to trade disruptions generated by the unexpected closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely undo disinflationary effects of lower tariffs that resulted from a U.S. Supreme Court ruling earlier this year. dallasfed.org/research/econo…
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
New research finds that increased costs due to trade disruptions generated by the unexpected closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely undo disinflationary effects of lower tariffs that resulted from a U.S. Supreme Court ruling earlier this year. dallasfed.org/research/econo…
It's nice to see this out! Tryg and I rely on a NK model of the global economy with trade disruptions---developed by @pcubab, @Albert_Queralto, Mikael Scaramucci and I in recent research---to quantify the net inflationary effects of the Hormuz closure and the IEEPA tariffs ruling
New research finds that increased costs due to trade disruptions generated by the unexpected closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely undo disinflationary effects of lower tariffs that resulted from a U.S. Supreme Court ruling earlier this year. dallasfed.org/research/econo…
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
A sequence of major economic and geopolitical events has reshaped the structure of global trade in the past decade. The latest on Dallas Fed Economics explores these shifting global trade patterns. dallasfed.org/research/econo…
Mexico gains from U.S.-China trade war; inefficiencies limit benefit dallasfed.org/research/econo… via @DallasFed
Happy to finally have out my first DFE piece!
A central question for policymakers is whether this reallocation has meaningful macro consequences beyond changes in bilateral trade. In particular, has the diversion of U.S. sourcing away from China translated into gains in Mexican aggregate output, such as higher GDP growth?
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
Week WON
ALT Win graphic: Commanders 21, Giants 6. Photo is of the offense celebrating after a touchdown. They are all wearing burgundy helmets. white jerseys, burgundy pants and burgundy socks.
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
Bolivia's Economy on the Brink americasquarterly.org/articl…
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
A few years ago, Christina Skinner and I published “Laboratories of Central Banking,” in the Review of Banking and Financial Law. A Mercatus policy brief on the paper is recently making the rounds and garnering some controversy, so I wanted to make a few comments. (Thread)
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
I got to organize the @nber International Trade and Macroeconomics meeting with the amazing Yan Bai:
nber.org/conferences/si-2025…
It's tomorrow afternoon and for those of you without access to the Royal Sonnesta, it's on youtube:
youtube.com/nbervideos
I'm thrilled! Thanks for including my work with @pcubab, @Albert_Queralto, and Mikael Scaramucci in such an amazing program. Looking forward to tomorrow's session!
Another timely one.
How do changes in trade frictions (like tariffs) affect inflation?
by @RichRHC and a team from @federalreserve
Key finding is that when the tariff hits intermediate goods (which is 40 percent of U.S. imports), inflation is more persistent.
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
Another timely one.
How do changes in trade frictions (like tariffs) affect inflation?
by @RichRHC and a team from @federalreserve
Key finding is that when the tariff hits intermediate goods (which is 40 percent of U.S. imports), inflation is more persistent.
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
Headed to NBER SI. In addition to seeing the latest research, I'm looking forward to the panels on "The Future Impacts Of Current Trade Policy" (@itskhoki, @skalemliozcan, @akhandelwal8, Rodriguez-Clare) & "The Future of the Global Economy" (@itskhoki, @paulkrugman, Tesar).
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
More evidence consistent with results in sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Using global input-output data & a gravity framework, the authors provide empirical evidence that higher import costs, such as tariffs & non-tariff barriers to trade, act like negative supply shocks that increase inflation & lower output. (1/3) federalreserve.gov/econres/i… #IFDPPaper
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
Using a multi-country New Keynesian model with trade in final goods and intermediate inputs, the authors estimate that a 10 p.p. increase in U.S. bilateral trade costs leads to about a 1 p.p. increase in U.S. inflation. (2/3) federalreserve.gov/econres/i… #IFDPPaper
Ricardo Reyes-Heroles retweeted
The inflationary effects persist when trade barriers increase the cost of intermediate inputs. Persistent inflation complicates the monetary policy tradeoff. (3/3) federalreserve.gov/econres/i… #IFDPPaper