BREAKING: IBM stock, $IBM, surges over +6% after reporting stronger than expected earnings due to AI.

Did some rigorous analysis of the AFR's coverage this month.

Citi on Nick Scali $NCK: "Neutral-rated Nick Scali’s trading update this evening revealed materially weaker than consensus expectations (we previously flagged downside risk) and represents a sharp deterioration versus the trading update for the first 5 weeks of 1H27. "The main surprise is that ANZ written orders have gone from flat in the first 5 weeks of FY27 (reported in August) to - 15% in 1Q27, resulting in 1H27 group NPAT guidance of $28 million - $32 million which is -20% below VA Consensus at the midpoint. "The positive UK momentum continues, but is not large enough to offset ANZ weakness. "With Citi forecasting another RBA rate hike in November with risk to the upside, we think it is premature for investors to assume this is the end of the downgrade cycle. "We consider Nick Scali’s update to be a better reflection of underlying housing retail conditions compared to Beacon Lighting’s update yesterday." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing

NVIDIA IN TALKS TO INVEST HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN AUSTRALIAN AI CLOUD PROVIDER FIRMUS – TIF

I reckon $NXT are going to have to raise more capital soon. Their revised FY27 revenue and EBITDA guidance is almost flat on FY26 numbers. Capex is forecast to be $4.5B - $5B and we can assume that is fully debt funded so net debt will grow from $2.4B to $7B by June next yr. FY26 interest expense was $143m so if we extrapolate that across $7B of debt then that interest cost will grow to ~$300m by the end of FY27 which is less than their EBITDA forecast of $250m for the same period. I know they have recently issued Convertible notes at lower rates but its still going to cost them a packet to service all this debt on those EBITDA numbers

Citi on NextDC $NXT: "While NXT management was trying to highlight the various capital options it  has (land bank, recycling capex, slowing capex etc.), it did raise concerns on the balance sheet. "Given NXT is able to use the whole contracted EBITDA that is due to start billing in 2 years time and interest cover covenant is only for the net interest expense on the senior debt facility, we currently do not see a risk of a breach in covenants but acknowledge some uncertainty in terms of service credits payable. "Further, while the contract delay is a negative, we are not sure the customer has many options in terms of finding suitable alternate sites with a competitor and at the rate that it was originally signed at." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing