Blogger and part time pension consultant. Gilt PM without portfolio.

Edinburgh, Scotland
Joined December 2012
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Russ Oxley retweeted
QE has unfairly impacted gilt fund managers. - just saying!
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Claude 5.5 Opus responding to “AI is a normal technology” is still the best AI-created video I have ever seen
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Well that #GPTPro email has just stopped me downgrading my #ClaudeMax - odd timing from #OpenAI imho.
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Is it just me that gets a little ripple of enjoyment when I type "make it so" into Codex or Claude?
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£10k a month for 30 years hedged and paid with gilts would cost less than 50% of the £3.6m that you’d get back. thetontineengine.substack.co…
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Competition for capital ≠ productivity thetontineengine.substack.co…
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We may be moving from an economy in which incumbent rents produced saving and too little investment to one in which threats to those rents force companies and states into an expensive defensive investment race. Idea and article is a work in progress!
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Subsidising energy bills or housing costs may support demand while leaving the underlying rent in place. Both increase public spending. Their effects on supply are almost opposite.”
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Warsh right on rate path transparency. substack.com/@thetontineengi…
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Latest slightly technical post on why CDC in UK might still be ok, maybe. open.substack.com/pub/theton…
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Russ Oxley retweeted
With Rachel reaching for performative price capping measures thought I’d re-up my VICE article. open.substack.com/pub/theton…
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According to the historically dubious story behind Horst Siebert's "cobra effect", the British Raj, concerned about the number of venomous cobras in Delhi, offered a bounty for every dead cobra.
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Initially, this worked; then people began breeding cobras for the income. The reward programme was scrapped, and the breeders set their snakes free. Economists are obsessed with incentives. Can you use them as a lens to predict institutional asset allocation?
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With Rachel reaching for performative price capping measures thought I’d re-up my VICE article. open.substack.com/pub/theton…
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