Rooster Odds: 2026 forecast built on real polls, not hopes. America First, Rust Belt raised. First to news, first in the replies. Polls don't vote, people do.
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Rooster Odds evening update (Oct. 25), with 14 new polls blended in:
Senate: R 46.0% / D 50.1%
House: R 5.7% (194 seats)
Both chambers: R 4.2%
Texas Senate and Ohio's 9th District are dead even.
Polls don't vote, people do. 🐓
Jane Fonda's Climate PAC has raised $8 million and still has $5 million in the bank with eight days to go. Checks are going to competitive House races in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, plus Annie Andrews in South Carolina and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota. Worth knowing who's paying for those ads.
Jane Fonda’s Climate PAC Pours Millions into Socialist Candidates Ahead of Midterms trib.al/ACw1MiB
What slipped past the cameras this week:
Detroit woman gets 18 months for $2.5M in student aid for 80+ fake college students.
Columbus doctor pleads guilty to 27,000 fake Medicaid telehealth claims.
El Paso man gets 51 months for an 11-year, $3.1M NBA game Ponzi scheme.
Obama came to Detroit to rally for Abdul El-Sayed, and a day later Haley Stevens still wouldn't tell CNN she supports him. If the woman he beat in the primary won't vouch for him, Michigan shouldn't either.
Chiricahua National Monument in southeast Arizona is now Chiricahua National Park, the country's 64th. Those rock spires out there are truly something else. Good to see a president actually putting money and attention into our parks.
Browns fell behind 14-0 in Nashville and won it on the last snap, again. Remember that on election night when Ohio counts the early vote first and Democrats jump out ahead.
Trump comes to Chillicothe, Ohio on Wednesday, then Dubuque, Iowa next Sunday. Two Midwest stops in the final stretch before Election Day.
This week, President Donald J. Trump will visit:
MONDAY (10/26): Corinth, Mississippi
TUESDAY (10/27): Corpus Christi, Texas
TUESDAY (10/27): Lubbock, Texas
WEDNESDAY (10/28): Chillicothe, Ohio
FRIDAY (10/30): Daytona, Florida
SUNDAY (11/1): Dubuque, Iowa
Vice President JD Vance will visit:
MONDAY (10/26): Belgrade, Montana
MONDAY (10/26): Topeka, Kansas
TUESDAY (10/27): Howell, Michigan
MORE TO COME... 👀
Iran's Revolutionary Guard wrote a 25-page letter begging American voters to change the Trump administration at the ballot box. When the IRGC is that desperate for you to vote one way, you already know which way to vote.
Former Illinois Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich is now telling Americans to vote Republican. He says his old party “has been hijacked by socialists.” Who would’ve thought?
Ex-con former Dem Ill. Gov. Rod Blagojevich urges America to vote Republican: 'Democratic Party has been hijacked by socialists' trib.al/6J1wCRa
Obama told Detroit that Abdul El-Sayed would "finish the job" on Obamacare. Sixteen years in, the average family's job-based premium just hit $28,303. How much more finishing can Michigan take?
Dr. Oz says CMS has already stopped $50 billion in fraud from leaving Medicare and Medicaid, and that alone could double the life of the Medicare trust fund. That's money that belongs to seniors, not scammers.
.@DrOzCMS on fraud: "We've already stopped $50B from leaving Medicare or Medicaid — just that alone could double the life of the Medicare Trust Fund."
#NEW MICHIGAN early vote
Detroit, first day of in-person early voting:
2026: 2,305
2024: 1,897
[+21.5%]
Detroit is showing up. Rest of Michigan, your move.
Data: Detroit city officials via CBS Detroit
#NEW PENNSYLVANIA House polls
PA-10
🔴 Perry: 48% [Susquehanna 10/5-11: 46%]
🔵 Stelson: 48% [49%]
PA-01
🔵 Harvie: 48%
🔴 Fitzpatrick: 46%
PA-07
🔵 Brooks: 49%
🔴 Mackenzie: 44%
PA-08
🔵 Cognetti: 51%
🔴 Bresnahan: 46%
Perry erased Stelson's lead from earlier this month. All four are inside the margin.
NYT/Inquirer/Siena | 10/16-22 | ~400 LVs each
#NEW MICHIGAN early vote
Ballots cast: 1,039,329 [+53.1K since yesterday]
📬 Absentee: 1,035,182
🗳️ Early in-person: 4,147
That's 14.0% of active voters, and absentee requests are running 17% ahead of 2022. Statewide early voting opened today.
Data: Michigan SOS, via WXYZ
Same Elon, same rockets, same electric cars. The only thing that changed between "visionary" and "fascist" was who he endorsed in 2024.
Buried under the rally coverage today:
TX doctor and ex-postal union official charged in a $19M federal workers' comp scam.
TX couple gets prison for billing Medicare $14M for wheelchair repairs on just 37 patients.
RI Medicaid provider accused of faking patient notes with AI.
Audi is putting $4.25 billion into a plant in Macon, Georgia that will build 200,000 cars a year. That’s real American jobs coming home, and we need a lot more of it.
.@POTUS: I am thrilled to announce a massive auto manufacturing investment in the Great State of Georgia.
Audi has just committed to invest $4.25 BILLION in Macon — to begin construction next month on a massive plant that will produce 200,000 cars per year.
Rooster Odds evening update (Oct 24), now with every new poll blended in:
Senate: R 46.1% / D 50.0%
House: R 5.4% (194 seats)
Both chambers: R 4.0%
Texas Senate is a dead-even toss-up at 50.1/49.9. Ohio is a coin flip too.
Polls don't vote, people do. 🐓
Times/Siena asked Democrats who they want in 2028: Kamala Harris led with 12% and 45% had no clue. That's the party asking you to hand them Congress in ten days.
#NEW OHIO early vote
Ballots cast: 1,003,361 [+81.2K since yesterday]
⚪ Unaffiliated: 409,314 [+39.4K]
🔵 Dem: 320,481 [+20.8K]
🔴 GOP: 271,832 [+20.8K]
Ohio just passed 1 million votes, and Republicans kept pace with Democrats on the day.
Data: Ohio SOS, via @mrransomx
Ohio EV, Oct. 24: 1,003,361 return-dated records, up 81,182 since the October 23 SOS snapshot.
• Democratic: 320,481 (+20,827), reaching 70.6% of their final 2024 EV baseline
• Republican: 271,832 (+20,763), reaching 38.0%
• Unaffiliated: 409,314 (+39,441), 40.8% of current records
• Libertarian: 1,734 (+151)
D pace increased 4.59 percentage points; R pace increased 2.90 points.
D/R relative pace: 1.882× → 1.859× (−0.023)
Across all 88 counties:
• Above 1.00×: 88
• Below 1.00×: 0
• Exactly even: 0
• Undefined: 0
Democrats added 64 more return-dated records than Republicans. Unaffiliated voters supplied 48.6% of the net increase and now account for 40.8% of current records.
County D/R percentages below measure progress against each group’s own final 2024 EV baseline. U share uses current early-vote records—a different denominator.
Some heavily Trump counties:
• Clinton (Trump +54.6): D 94.4%, R 36.7%; U share 38.7% — 2.57×
• Williams (+48.2): D 93.0%, R 37.9%; U 34.5% — 2.46×
• Seneca (+37.5): D 80.7%, R 33.2%; U 36.3% — 2.43×
• Knox (+44.9): D 89.8%, R 38.1%; U 33.6% — 2.36×
• Highland (+63.3): D 87.5%, R 37.7%; U 36.6% — 2.32×
• Darke (+65.4): D 77.6%, R 33.7%; U 42.5% — 2.30×
Largest shifts toward Republicans:
• Lawrence: D 73.9%, R 34.4%; U 40.5% | 2.321× → 2.152× (−0.169)
• Adams: D 82.6%, R 38.5%; U 27.4% | 2.278× → 2.146× (−0.132)
• Holmes: D 77.9%, R 35.1%; U 41.9% | 2.340× → 2.220× (−0.120)
Largest shifts toward Democrats:
• Franklin: D 64.7%, R 33.5%; U 47.1% | 1.910× → 1.933× (+0.023)
• Harrison: D 69.2%, R 37.3%; U 38.1% | 1.835× → 1.856× (+0.021)
• Fulton: D 74.7%, R 33.3%; U 42.7% | 2.228× → 2.245× (+0.017)
In the counties Harris won:
• Athens: D 74.6%, R 38.1%; U 40.3% | 2.038× → 1.961× (−0.077)
• Montgomery: D 52.4%, R 22.8%; U 40.5% | 2.287× → 2.301× (+0.014)
• Lucas: D 71.1%, R 34.8%; U 42.3% | 2.115× → 2.042× (−0.073)
• Hamilton: D 72.9%, R 36.4%; U 44.8% | 1.996× → 2.004× (+0.008)
• Franklin: D 64.7%, R 33.5%; U 47.1% | 1.910× → 1.933× (+0.023)
• Summit: D 65.3%, R 37.5%; U 44.9% | 1.749× → 1.741× (−0.008)
• Cuyahoga: D 63.9%, R 40.9%; U 34.4% | 1.564× → 1.562× (−0.001)
Democrats retain a relative pace advantage in every county, but it narrowed in 78 counties, widened in eight and was unchanged in two. No Harris-won county has a Republican relative pace advantage.
Democratic records have exceeded their provisional final 2024 baseline in Jackson (107.6%) and Sandusky (104.7%). Republican progress in those counties is 52.4% and 51.0%, respectively.
Above 1 favors D pace; below favors R. Negative changes move toward R; positive toward D. Changes use unrounded calculations. Affiliation isn’t candidate choice; historical baseline comparability remains provisional.
Source: Ohio SOS
