Southern Tennessee Weather

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY! Proudly sponsored by Adams Roofing! (adamsroofingtn.com)

🥶 HOW DOES ARCTIC AIR REACH TENNESSEE? ❄️ Where does it come from? 🌬️ How does the jet stream bring it south? 🌀 Is the POLAR VORTEX responsible? With a HARD FREEZE possible this weekend, Monday's blog explains the science! 📱 stnweather.com/blog/how-can-… Heritage South CCU | #tnwx

RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BIG-TIME COOLDOWN! 🥶❄️ Rain chances return to Southern Middle Tennessee Wednesday evening and will continue off and on into early Thursday ahead of a strong cold front. Right now, rainfall totals of 0.10–0.25 inches look likely across the region. Certainly not a soaking rain, but hey, we'll take what we can get! The BIG story arrives behind the cold front Thursday night as some of the coldest air we've seen so far this season moves into Southern Middle Tennessee! We're looking at our first HARD FREEZE of the 2026–27 winter season, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s by Friday night into Saturday morning (and again Saturday night into Sunday morning). Afternoon temperatures will struggle as well, with highs on Friday and Sunday only reaching the mid to upper 40s... And yes, I'm STILL watching the possibility of a few scattered snow flurries on Friday... ❄️ The best chance will be along the Cumberland Plateau, where colder temperatures and higher elevations will favor a few passing flurries. Chances decrease pretty substantially as you move off the Plateau and farther west. I'm not expecting any accumulation or travel impacts, but a few folks may get to see some flakes flying! ______________ 🏠 ADAMS ROOFING 🏠 This weather update is proudly sponsored by Adams Roofing, the official roofing company of Southern Tennessee Weather! For more than 40 years, Adams Roofing has helped protect homes and businesses across Middle Tennessee with quality roofing, honest service, and expert craftsmanship. Family-owned and operated, Adams Roofing is a GAF Master Elite® Contractor and certified in Duro-Last commercial roofing systems, providing trusted residential and commercial roofing services. Whether you need a roof inspection after severe weather, repairs, or a complete roof replacement, Adams Roofing is ready to help. 📍 303 Deery St., Shelbyville 📞 (931) 684-1463 🌐 adamsroofingtn.com

🦴 ACHES & PAINS FORECAST | NOVEMBER 9TH – 15TH Presented by Lamb Counseling Services BIG-TIME WEATHER CHANGES ARE COMING THIS WEEK! Unfortunately, that means our aches and pains forecast is going to take a pretty significant turn for the worse as we head toward the end of the workweek! We'll start Monday and Tuesday on a relatively quiet note, with very few significant weather changes expected. That should keep us comfortably in the GREEN or "LOW PAIN" category. However, things begin changing Wednesday as our next storm system approaches Southern Middle Tennessee. By Thursday and Friday, a STRONG cold front and upper-level low-pressure system will move through the region, bringing some of our most significant weather changes in quite some time! Two of the biggest factors we're watching are falling barometric pressure and rapid temperature changes. Some people with arthritis, joint stiffness, chronic pain, and migraines report increased discomfort when atmospheric pressure drops or temperatures change quickly. These changes may contribute to inflammation-related discomfort or trigger headaches in weather-sensitive individuals. Because of this, I've increased our forecast into the RED or "HIGH PAIN" category for Thursday and Friday. This is when we're expecting the most significant weather changes of the week, so those sensitive to changing weather may notice more pronounced flare-ups. THANKFULLY, THERE'S GOOD NEWS! As the storm system moves eastward and our weather begins settling down this weekend, pain levels should gradually decrease. We'll return to the YELLOW or "MODERATE PAIN" category Saturday before dropping back into the GREEN category Sunday as weather changes become less significant. 🧡 LAMB COUNSELING SERVICES: Some days will be harder than others, but difficult moments don't define your journey. 📖 "God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble." — Psalm 46:1 Hope Through Healing! 🌐 lambcounseling.net/ 📞 (931) 492-6889

SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE 7-DAY FORECAST: A chilly start to the week is on tap, but we've got some BIG changes coming later this week, including a chance for rain, a few snow flurries, and potentially our first HARD FREEZE of the season! First, we're looking at another cold start Monday morning, with widespread heavy frost and a light freeze likely across Southern Middle Tennessee. Thankfully, we'll warm up rather nicely during the afternoon, with highs approaching 70 degrees Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday! With light winds and mostly clear skies, patchy fog will also be possible each morning. Another round of light frost can't be ruled out Monday night into Tuesday morning, particularly in our sheltered, lower-lying areas. Heading into the middle of the week, things start getting a little more interesting! Our strongest cold front of the season (so far) is expected to approach Southern Middle Tennessee, bringing an opportunity for rain showers Wednesday night into Thursday. While we're still working out the finer details regarding rainfall coverage and timing, this front looks to bring a MUCH colder air mass into our region heading into the weekend. And when I say colder, I mean COLDER! 🥶 By Friday afternoon, temperatures may struggle to even reach 50 degrees across much of Southern Middle Tennessee! In fact, there could even be a few passing SNOW FLURRIES across our eastern counties, especially along the Cumberland Plateau. Now, before anyone gets too excited, I'm NOT expecting any snow accumulation at this time. However, it's certainly something worth keeping an eye on as we get closer! The bigger story will be Friday night into Saturday morning, when we're expecting our first HARD FREEZE of the season! Temperatures could fall into the mid to upper 20s across portions of the area, which would likely bring an official end to the growing season. If you've still got sensitive outdoor plants hanging around, now would be a good time to start making preparations! By Sunday, we should begin a slow warming trend that continues into early next week, although temperatures will likely remain on the chilly side initially. Be sure to stay tuned for updates as we fine-tune the timing of Wednesday night's and Thursday's rain chances, along with just HOW COLD we're going to get behind this front. One thing is looking increasingly likely... You're going to want to BUNDLE UP later this week! 🥶 _________________________________ 🪳 COOK'S PEST CONTROL 🐜 This forecast update is proudly sponsored by Cook's Pest Control, the South's most trusted name in pest control since 1928. Since we're still waiting on our first hard freeze of the season, pests are still alive and well! Whether you're dealing with ants, termites, mosquitoes, or need commercial pest protection, their team has you covered with dependable local service backed by nearly a century of experience. 🌐 cookspest.com 📞 (931) 684-5941

It's quite chilly across the area this morning! Here's a look at observed low temperatures. The coldest two locations were Shelbyville and Tullahoma, getting down to 30°! 🥶

RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK! 🌧️ Remember how I said we would likely stay dry over the next 7 days with little to no rain chances? Well, the latest long-range weather data is trying to prove me wrong! Both of our major global forecast models, the American and European, are beginning to show a rather strong cold front moving into Southern Middle Tennessee late next week, particularly around the Thursday timeframe. With a stronger cold front and a more pronounced trough developing across the region, we could be looking at an opportunity for some more ROBUST rainfall chances. And by robust, I mean something more substantial than just a few passing light showers! Now, before we get too excited, this is a fairly new trend in the forecast data, and one that I'll be watching closely over the coming days. We're still too far out to confidently discuss exact timing, rainfall totals, or how widespread the rain might be... AND THERE'S MORE! 🥶 Behind this cold front, I'm also keeping a close eye on the potential for a BIG-TIME cooldown heading into next weekend! Some of the latest guidance is suggesting that a much colder air mass could settle into Southern Middle Tennessee, potentially bringing us our first HARD FREEZE of the season! We're talking about temperatures that could fall into the 20s, but it's still too early to pin down just how cold we'll get. So, we've got TWO things to watch late next week: the potential for some meaningful rainfall followed by a significant drop in temperatures. Both are still several days away, and plenty can change between now and then. We'll see how this trends over the next few days. Fingers crossed (for at least the rain)! 🤞🌧️ ________________________________ 💡 RED WHITE & GLOW 💡 This evening's weather update is proudly sponsored by Red White & Glow, your local destination for custom vehicle lighting and aftermarket accessory installation in Manchester, Tennessee! 🚗 Make your ride SHINE! Whether you're looking to turn heads on the road or light up the trails, Red White & Glow has you covered! From eye-catching underglow, rock lights, and wheel lights to upgraded headlights, fog lights, LED light bars, safety lighting, and custom accessory wiring, they can bring your vision to life! Proudly serving Middle Tennessee, Red White & Glow specializes in transforming cars, trucks, Jeeps, SUVs, and off-road vehicles with professional installations and custom lighting solutions! Red White & Glow — Your Ride. Your Style. Your Glow. 📍 Manchester, Tennessee 📞 Call: (650) 955-0320 📲 Text: (931) 588-1099 🌐 redwhiteglowlighting.com

REMINDER: Our first heavy frost and light freeze of the season are likely overnight tonight into early Sunday morning! 🥶 If you have sensitive outdoor plants or vegetation, make sure to take precautions to protect them! The greatest chance for temperatures to fall below freezing will be in our lower-lying, sheltered areas and hollows where cold air tends to settle. Also, a quick reminder that the National Weather Service has ended its seasonal frost and freeze advisory program for our area as of October 1st. Just because an official advisory or warning hasn’t been issued DOES NOT mean freezing temperatures aren’t possible! Bundle up, Southern Middle Tennessee! It’s going to be a chilly night! 🥶 ______________ 🔧 ROSCOE BROWN PLUMBING 🔧 Today’s weather update is proudly sponsored by Roscoe Brown Plumbing, serving Middle Tennessee families since 1940! 💧 Don’t let plumbing problems rain on your parade! Whether you’re dealing with a clogged drain, leaking pipe, water heater issue, or an unexpected plumbing emergency, Roscoe Brown’s experienced team is ready to help. From drain cleaning and water heater installation to whole-home plumbing repairs and maintenance, they’ve got you covered. For more than 85 years, Roscoe Brown has remained a third-generation family business built on trust, hard work, and treating customers like neighbors. 📍 Nashville | Murfreesboro | Tullahoma | McMinnville 📞 (615) 203-3874 🌐 RoscoeBrown.com

COOL WEEKEND AHEAD! Proudly sponsored by Clearwater Pool & Spa in Manchester. (931-728-6414)

🥶 A CHILLY NOVEMBER WEEKEND AHEAD! ☀️ Sunshine returns! 🌡️ Highs in the 50s and 60s! ❄️ Frost and FREEZING temperatures possible Sunday and Monday mornings! How cold will it get? Find out in Friday's blog! 📱stnweather.com/blog/chilly-n… Heritage South CCU | #tnwx

A DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVES TODAY, WITH OUR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND! 🥶 We've got some changes on the way across Southern Middle Tennessee as a cold front moves through the region today, bringing a noticeably cooler air mass just in time for the weekend! Now, I know what you're thinking... A DRY cold front? WHAT? Believe it or not, not every cold front brings widespread rainfall! For rain to develop, we need more than just a front moving through. We also need sufficient moisture in the atmosphere and enough lift to produce clouds and precipitation. In this case, moisture is rather limited, so while the front will provide some lift, there simply isn't enough moisture available to produce much rainfall. I won't completely rule out a stray drizzle or isolated light shower this afternoon, but the overwhelming majority of us should stay dry. We will, however, notice increasing cloud cover and some breezy conditions as the front passes, with northwest wind gusts reaching 15–20 MPH at times. However, the REAL story isn't today's cold front. It's the chilly air arriving behind it! Temperatures will take a pretty good tumble tonight, with overnight lows falling into the mid 30s across much of the area. A few of our colder locations, especially north and west, could approach the freezing mark by Saturday morning. But that's just a little preview of what's coming! Our BEST opportunity for widespread frost and freezing temperatures will arrive Sunday and Monday mornings. With a colder air mass settling over the region, clearing skies, and light winds, temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s across much of Southern Middle Tennessee. These are nearly ideal conditions for frost formation, and many communities could FINALLY experience their first freeze of the 2026–2027 cold season! And believe it or not, we're actually running a little behind schedule! Based on historical climate averages, Shelbyville typically experiences its first fall freeze around October 29, Columbia around October 27, and Altamont around October 20. That means we're already a week or two beyond when freezing temperatures would normally make their first appearance in many of our communities. Of course, those are averages, and the actual timing varies quite a bit from year to year! As for our afternoon temperatures, Saturday is going to feel MUCH more like November! Highs will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, with plenty of sunshine expected. Dare I say it... we might actually need a light jacket! If you've still got sensitive plants outside, now would be a good time to start making plans to protect them! One important thing to mention: The National Weather Service will NOT be issuing Frost Advisories or Freeze Warnings for the remainder of 2026. That's because their frost and freeze program officially ended on October 1st, which marks the end of the designated growing season. These alerts won't resume until next spring, so don't let the absence of an advisory or warning fool you into thinking your plants are safe! Freezing temperatures can still occur, even without an official alert. Enjoy the cooler weather, and don't forget to bundle up if you're heading out early this weekend! _________________________ 🍂 POOL CLOSING SEASON IS HERE! 🏊‍♂️ Don't let the colder weather this weekend catch you off guard! Clearwater Pool & Spa is offering $30 OFF your scheduled pool closing! Get your pool properly winterized, protect your investment, and make reopening next spring a breeze! 📍 Clearwater Pool & Spa | 857 McArthur Street, Manchester, TN 📞 (931) 728-6414 🌐 cleartn.com Schedule your closing today and SAVE $30!

FOG OVER BEDFORD COUNTY: Check out this morning’s timelapse from our Deason Skycam, looking south toward Shelbyville! A blanket of dense fog slowly lifts, revealing the landscape below. We often say the atmosphere is a fluid, and this video lets you see that in action. Watch how the fog moves across the landscape like ripples on a pond! stnweather.com/skycams

Kirby’s Weather Snapshot — This Thursday, November 5th edition is proudly sponsored by Redd’s Heating and Air Conditioning. (reddsheatingandair.com)

🌵 DROUGHT UPDATE: SMALL IMPROVEMENTS SOUTH, BUT STILL A LONG WAY TO GO! ✅ Some improvement! ⚠️ Extreme Drought persists! 🌧️ Wednesday's rain NOT included in the latest map! ☀️ Another dry stretch ahead? Read Thursday's blog! 👇 stnweather.com/blog/drought-… Heritage South CCU | #tnwx

GET READY for our first widespread heavy frost / freeze of the season this weeken, with widespread low temps in the low 30s by Sunday morning. Winter is coming! 🥶❄️

FORECAST VERIFICATION: HOW DID WE DO? I've been taking somewhat of a backseat when it comes to MY opinion on the current state of weather information on social media. I would be lying if I said it wasn't the wild, wild west out there, and frankly, I don't see that changing anytime soon. It's all fine and dandy until outrageous forecasts start getting shared daily, misinformation spreads, and people begin questioning who they can actually trust when significant weather threatens their communities. So, I've been thinking about something I want to start doing more often here at Southern Tennessee Weather: forecast verification. After significant weather events, whether that's heavy rainfall, snowfall, severe thunderstorms, or something else, I want to take a look back at our forecasts and compare them to what actually happened. What did we get right? What did we get wrong? And what could we have done better? I believe having open and honest conversations about forecast accuracy, including acknowledging when we miss the mark, is one of the best ways to build trust. Meteorology isn't a perfect science, and no forecast will ever be 100% accurate, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't hold ourselves accountable for the information we share. With that being said, let's take a look at our rainfall forecast from Tuesday night into Wednesday! Our forecast called for widespread rainfall totals of 1–2 inches across Southern Middle Tennessee, with localized amounts potentially reaching 3 inches. Looking at estimated rainfall totals from this event, I'm pleased to say our forecast verified quite nicely overall! Most of our coverage area picked up between 1–2 inches of rain, with some locations exceeding 3 inches, particularly in a swath extending from eastern Maury County through Marshall County and into western Bedford County. Of course, there were a few places where our forecast didn't verify quite as well, especially across Franklin County, where rainfall totals were somewhat underwhelming compared to what we anticipated. A big reason for this was the final line of showers and thunderstorms becoming more broken and scattered as it approached the Alabama state line, leaving some communities with less rainfall than others. That's an important part of forecast verification, too. Just because a forecast works out well for most of the area doesn't mean it worked out equally well for everyone! It's also worth mentioning that these are ESTIMATED rainfall totals, meaning they may not perfectly reflect what fell in your backyard. In fact, I've already received a few reports suggesting some of these estimates may be a little too low. Nevertheless, they give us a pretty good overall picture of how this event unfolded. Now, the million-dollar question: Did this rain help our ongoing drought? Well, we're certainly heading in the right direction, but we won't get a clear picture from this week's U.S. Drought Monitor update. That's because the weekly analysis only incorporates conditions through Tuesday morning, meaning Wednesday's rainfall won't be reflected until next week's update. We've now had multiple rounds of beneficial rainfall in a relatively short period of time, which is encouraging after such an extended stretch of dry weather. However, drought recovery takes time, and we'll need more consistent rainfall to make substantial improvements. Overall, I'm happy with how our rainfall forecast performed. We accurately captured the general range of rainfall across much of Southern Middle Tennessee, including the potential for localized totals exceeding 3 inches. There were a few areas where we overestimated rainfall, and those misses are just as important to acknowledge. My goal with these forecast verifications isn't to pat ourselves on the back when we get something right. It's to be transparent about our forecasting process, learn from our mistakes, and help you better understand the science behind the forecasts you depend on. At the end of the day, trust isn't built by pretending to be right all the time. It's built through honesty, consistency, and accountability, and that's exactly what I want Southern Tennessee Weather to stand for! Have a GREAT start to your Thursday! _______________________________ 🔥 REDD’S HEATING & AIR CONDITIONING This weather update is proudly sponsored by Redd’s Heating & Air Conditioning — the official heating and air conditioning company of Southern Tennessee Weather! For more than 50 years, Redd’s has proudly served our community as a family-owned and operated business. Whether you need repairs, routine maintenance, or a brand-new HVAC system, their experienced team is ready to help keep your home comfortable through Tennessee’s hottest days. Plus, they offer 24/7 emergency service when you need them most. 📍 704 Blue Ribbon Pkwy, Shelbyville 📞 (931) 684-0339 🌐 reddsheatingandair.com

Event Expanded - Dense Fog Advisory for Maury | Visibility: 1/2 mi | Expires Thursday, 11/5/26 at 8 AM.

Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Marshall, Bedford, Coffee +1 more | Visibility: 1/2 mi | Expires Thursday, 11/5/26 at 8 AM.

Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Moore, Lincoln, Franklin | Visibility: 0.25-0.5 mi | Expires Thursday, 11/5/26 at 9 AM.