Ryan Samadi retweeted
Goals are for people who care about winning once. Systems are for people who care about winning repeatedly.
My call for Brazil's cash-market open is bearish continuation. I expect the election trade to keep unwinding across equities, and local duration.
Preferred expression is EWZ puts on a failed opening rebound. Negative delta, positive gamma with bearish exposure increasing as spot falls.
Need to see how expensive downside convexity is, would use a bear put spread if outright puts demand too much premium.
Moats emerge with time, I don’t think that moat matters at the early stages of building a company.
Any VC that presses a seed/preseed stage company on moat is asking the wrong question.
Right to win emerges from having a niche, initial traction, and a plan of execution.
As businesses scale their moat becomes durable.
NYC proves time and again that it is superior for fintech and markets businesses. Primary benefit of SF is proximity to VC dollars, whereas NYC has institutions. Much more relevant for what I’m building at this stage, and a deeper intellectual culture for thinking about market structure.
Can’t tell you how many times I had to explain what a perp was to a room full of SF tech bros.
Ryan Samadi retweeted
If the unrest in France is a reflection that aging populations and tightening fiscal constraints make it increasingly difficult for Western governments to meet their promises to and expectations of their citizens, then France is just the beginning.
Ryan Samadi retweeted
I'm increasingly partial to the argument that increases in the fed funds rate will do little to lower inflation, and may be counterproductive.
- AI investment is unlikely to slow because interest rates are slightly higher
- Energy is highly inelastic and rate changes can't alleviate the current supply shock
- Higher rates hurt supply-side solutions in housing, energy, autos, and other capital intensive industries
- Higher borrowing costs raise business operating expenses, some of which is passed along to consumers
- A large percentage of debt is fixed-rate, dampening the feedback loop but hurting new homeowners, small businesses, and investment
- An economy increasingly dominated by services is less sensitive to rate changes
- This century has repeatedly demonstrated how blunt interest rate policy can be, both in stimulating inflation when it's low and suppressing it when it's high
Ryan Samadi retweeted
The presumption that the Fed raising short-term rates reduces inflation is predicated on the belief that higher rates reduce demand and investment.
But what if higher rates don’t reduce demand and investment because the demand for intelligence and energy is unaffected by higher rates because winning the race for super intelligence has a near infinite ROI and the demand for compute will remain incalculable.
Why won’t higher rates at this unique moment in history therefore lead to more inflation as interest costs are embedded in everything?
And the problem is compounded as the more the Fed raises rates, the more inflation we will have and the more the Fed will need to raise rates further and so on.
But what if the old models don’t apply to the current paradigm and the Fed is wrong?
I think the Fed might have just made a mistake. Am I right or am I wrong?
Ryan Samadi retweeted
Sarbanes-Oxley : keeping the best companies private longer
::
Dodd-Frank : making Jane Street a shadow bank
My biggest pet peeve when working through an idea with an LLM apart from confirmation biases is that even upon repeated prompting it fails to be conversational enough. Every follow up question and clarifying point is met with an essay, it kills the dopamine rush lol
When I grow up I want to truly understand the difference between institutional volume and discretionary retail speculation lol