馃枙 Bitcoin only.
Joined October 2011
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SatsTonight retweeted
>be me
>discover effective altruism
>apparently normal charity is inefficient
>why donate to random sad thing when spreadsheet can tell you optimal sad thing
>fair enough
>buy mosquito nets
>save lives
>numbers look good
>feel powerful
>couple years later
>someone asks an innocent question
>why only count people alive today
>huh
>future people matter too
>obviously
>my grandchildren shouldn't matter less just because they haven't spawned yet
>reasonable.jpg
>keep following logic
>what about their grandchildren
>also yes
>what about people in 500 years
>sure
>5000 years
>why not
>500 million years
>starting to get weird but morality is morality
>open calculator
>humanity could survive for an astronomically long time
>could colonize galaxy
>could have trillions upon trillions of descendants
>maybe digital people too
>maybe simulated civilizations
>maybe dyson spheres full of happy uploaded minds
>calculator starts smoking
>realize currently living humans are rounding error
>8 billion people suddenly looking extremely beta
>future contains potentially 10^something people
>can't even fit beneficiaries in google sheets
>new moral priority unlocked
>protect the long-term future
>stop thinking in units of "people helped"
>start thinking in "fraction of cosmic endowment preserved"
>malaria?
>terrible
>but only kills existing humans
>AI extinction could delete the entire light cone
>nuclear war could permanently derail civilization
>bad institutions could lock in terrible values for ten million years
>someone invents wrong constitution in 2140
>quadrillions suffer
>better fund governance workshop now
>friend says maybe we should improve hospitals
>explain opportunity cost
>friend says hospitals are full of actual sick people
>explain scope sensitivity
>friend stops inviting me to dinner
>need to decide what to fund
>easy
>expected value
>suppose project has one in a million chance of preventing extinction
>sounds tiny
>but extinction destroys 10^50 future lives
>multiply
>mother of god
>$10 million project has expected value of several galaxies
>charity evaluation complete
>someone asks where the one-in-a-million number came from
>expert judgement
>which expert
>us
>how calibrated
>extremely thoughtfully
>reduce estimate to one in ten million to be conservative
>still beats curing cancer by 38 orders of magnitude
>epistemic robustness achieved
>someone says maybe project doesn't work
>assign 20% chance
>still astronomical
>maybe project makes problem worse
>assign 5% chance
>still astronomical
>why 5
>because 30 felt pessimistic
>publish 46-page report
>contains seventeen sensitivity analyses
>every sensitivity analysis begins after assuming intervention has positive sign
>critic says you're multiplying enormous hypothetical stakes by extremely uncertain probabilities
>yes
>that's literally why it's important
>critic says the uncertainty might be structural rather than numerical
>make probability smaller
>critic says no, I mean maybe your model is wrong
>make probability smaller again
>critic begins rubbing temples
>discover AI safety
>perfect longtermist cause
>AI might kill everyone
>or create utopia
>or seize galaxy
>or tile universe with paperclips
>or create billions of conscious software minds
>finally a problem with numbers big enough for me
>start AI safety nonprofit
>mission: prevent dangerous AI
>hire smartest people available
>smartest people immediately start building better AI to understand dangerous AI
>interesting
>we must understand capabilities to understand safety
>we must scale models to study alignment
>we must race ahead so less responsible actors don't get there first
>we must deploy systems to learn how deployment can go wrong
>we must build the thing quickly because building the thing quickly is dangerous
>outsider asks why the people most worried about AI apocalypse all work at AI companies
>complicated field
>company releases stronger model
>very concerned
>company begins training even stronger model
>extremely concerned
>company raises $14 billion
>concern reaches unprecedented levels
>need to influence government
>future is at stake
>normal democratic process too slow
>politicians don't understand exponential curves
>public doesn't understand x-risk
>experts must guide them
>who counts as expert
>people who understand x-risk
>who understands x-risk
>our friends
>someone objects that this seems politically convenient
>explain we're representing future generations
>future generations unavailable for comment
>develop concept of value lock-in
>terrifying possibility that one ideology controls civilization forever
>therefore extremely important that civilization adopts correct values before lock-in
>whose values
>let's circle back
>begin with impartial morality
>end with small group of people deciding what quadrillions of hypothetical beings would want
>beautiful arc
>meanwhile actual humans keep doing annoying things
>voting wrong
>having parochial attachments
>loving family more than strangers
>caring about local community
>getting upset when told their suffering is cosmically negligible
>evolutionary biases everywhere
>explain that moral intuition cannot be trusted
>except intuition that future digital people count
>and intuition that extinction is uniquely bad
>and intuition that our probability estimates are sane
>and intuition that our institutional choices improve the future
>those intuitions survived peer review
>someone donates $5k to local homeless shelter
>inefficient
>could have funded 0.0000000000003% of an AI governance researcher
>think of all the simulated people you just killed
>okay maybe don't phrase it that way publicly
>PR team says "future generations deserve a voice"
>much better
>journalist asks what longtermism means
>say "future people matter"
>everyone agrees
>great
>journalist asks what follows from that
>well technically we should redirect enormous resources toward low-probability interventions affecting astronomical futures
>journalist raises eyebrow
>return to "future people matter"
>motte has entered the chat
>critic: of course future people matter
>me: glad we agree
>critic: I don't agree that your institute knows how to help them
>me: why do you hate our grandchildren
>eventually notice uncomfortable implication
>if future value dominates everything
>then helping people today mostly matters through effects on future
>education matters because future institutions
>health matters because future productivity
>democracy matters because future trajectory
>human beings slowly become instrumental variables in their own moral philosophy
>see starving child
>feel compassion
>check spreadsheet
>child's direct welfare contribution negligible
>but perhaps childhood nutrition improves national institutional quality
>compassion restored
>tell myself this is impartial altruism
>one day assistant asks obvious question
>"how do you know your intervention actually improves the far future?"
>silence
>open spreadsheet
>increase column width
>add confidence interval
>assistant asks again
>"no, I mean how do you know the sign is positive?"
>stare into cosmic light cone
>10^50 people staring back
>none of them exist
>none of them can tell me
>none of them can falsify my assumptions
>realize I have invented the perfect constituency
>infinitely important
>completely silent
>and always represented by me
Why would this bear market behave the same way and have the same amount of drawdowns as the previous bear markets if the bull market wasn't as extreme either? I think it makes sense to expect a shallower bear market as well.
SatsTonight retweeted
French-American here 鈥斅爏pent 20 yrs in France, 13 in the US. Let me speak to this.
I think the only reason Europoors tolerate their miserable existence is because they tell themselves lies about what the rest of the world is like. They eat gruel in their AC-less social housing while the most awesome party in history is being thrown just next door.
If you hang out in France, you'll routinely hear them say things like: "in the US, people die in front of hospitals" (they literally believe this to be the case) or "our social system is the envy of the world."
Their image of the US is completely delusional, and they are often shocked to discover that when they visit here. Their Marxist media brainwashed them into thinking America is some Dickensian horror, with Monopoly-style fat capitalists running around with their top hats and monocles, exploiting dirt poor workers.
The reality is that:
* Social security is (unfortunately) the largest gov expense in the US
* Hospitals are by law forbidden to refuse care to people
* Americans are so much richer than French people it's not even funny. The *poorest* of our 50 states (Missisipi) has a GDP per capita of $53k, 36%(!) higher than France's $39k.
Now, how do Americans perceive the French (and Europeans at large)?
Well, the tragic reality is that they really, truly don't think of them. They may cross their minds once a month, at most. Why would they think of that irrelevant backwater of a continent?
The few times they do come to mind, it is, at best, as a quaint vacation spot. A nice place to sip espresso and spend their American dollars 鈥斅爓hich go such a long way in these third world countries! The closest comparison is how Europeans think of Thailand or Cambodia.
That's at best. At worst, they think they're a lazy, entitled, smug, snobbish, rude people with a bright future behind them, who confuse regulation for progress, don't realize their economies were left in the dust a very long time ago, simply stopped innovating because they've lost the will, ability, or both, and who would rather brag about their 60%(!!) public spending to GDP ratio than fix their communist shit hole of a system.
Nice wine though.
Just like they now say nobody was ever pressured to take the vaccine.
I first heard about this a couple of years ago and it still shocks me to this day. Europe is so fucked. Can't wait to get to the US.
Thinking about finally writing the story of what happened to my family in Sweden.
We didn鈥檛 know that Sweden鈥檚 Social Services is an independent national level agency with a strong anti American bias. "It's the last stronghold of our hardline Marxists", one Swedish friend explained to me.
By the time I caught on, the school had been creating secret reports on our kids for months. One teacher openly disliked that I was a combat deployed US Marine, and the kids were proud of it.
Police eventually got involved. I hired a lawyer.
He told me we needed to leave the country as soon as possible because if the state seized our kids (and they do it a lot over there) we would never see them again. Numerous complaints and losses at the ECHR for seizing children without cause.
So we made an emergency trip to Copenhagen and flew back to the US.
The next day the state raided our home and the neighborhood looking for our children. Our friends there texted us and warned us that the Swedish authorities were going door to door searching for us.
Anyone want to hear the full version? I have all the receipts.
I didn't think this bull market would be more even more disappointing than the last. Yet here we are...
