"It's worse for the #wheat market than Hormuz was for crude." That's how I put it to the FT this week. SovEcon expects Russia to export about 2.2mn tonnes this month [this was last week's forecast — will be revised lower this week], down from about 4.6mn tonnes in August 2025, with the bulk of shipments moving through routes outside the Azov and Black Sea basin. "Russia's Black Sea and Azov grain export capacity is currently shut down," with export capacity in the region cut from about 3.3mn tonnes a month to about 250,000 tonnes at Russia's only remaining operational facility at the Black Sea port of Tuapse. "We do not rule out further attacks on Novorossiysk, particularly given reports that local air-defence systems have been heavily damaged." Prices are rising, but the increase is relatively modest. Why? "Commodity traders don't believe in supply shocks anymore," I said - the market has embraced the idea since 2022 that all problems in the Black Sea are temporary. "'Sooner or later it will resolve and the market will tank'... that's a very popular way of thinking." Nonetheless, I expect the three-year high reached in wheat futures in July to soon be surpassed. The link is attached. #Russia #Ukraine #blacksea #sizovreport #oatt