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$SPX $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIX $SMH $SOX
Most traders are playing the wrong game.
FINRA warns that day trading is extremely risky. Independent studies consistently show that 70%+ of day traders lose money, while fewer than 1% achieve consistent long term profitability.
🧵 1/6
Why?
You're competing against HFT firms, market makers, institutional algorithms, commissions, spreads, slippage, and your own emotions.
Those are terrible odds.
2/6
That's not our strategy.
We rarely day trade.
Our focus is on defined risk swing option spreads positioned weeks to months out, allowing probabilities, not speed, to work in my favor.
3/6
The objective isn't to predict every candle.
It's to identify periods where technicals, volatility, options positioning, seasonality, and market structure align before committing capital.
4/6
From there, we actively adjust positions to harvest theta, neutralize gamma exposure when appropriate, generate cash flow from option premiums, and stay positioned risk free if the larger move unfolds.
5/6
The goal isn't hitting home runs every day.
The goal is consistency.
Trading is a business of probability and risk management, not adrenaline, prediction, or gambling.
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🤖 Made with AI
Tonight's weekly $SPX $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIX report is out! 🌕😂
Remember when we called the 10-year Treasury yield reversal right at the 5.30% top while loading $TLT Calls?
We've already monetized 434% gains! 💸💰 Remaining Calls are riding risk-free into FOMC!
Now, with oversold oscillators hinging, reversal candles forming, and tonight's full 🌕, things could get very interesting!
Want to know what the full moon has in store for Wall Street this week?
Use the link below for access to our reports or continue trading blindfolded! 👇😂
patreon.com/i1111J832/posts/…
Sebastián retweeted
🇺🇸 Trump with the most unhinged "by the way" ever:
“I looked at ONE HELL OF A BEAUTIFUL ASS before... Nicki MINAJ!
That’s HARD TO MISS! Stand up… hard to miss.”
That's a whole new category of presidential endorsements.
Writer: Oliver
Sebastián retweeted
🚨🇺🇲 Trump is back to talking about BUTTS...
“I looked at one hell of a beautiful ass: Nicki Minaj… That’s hard to miss.”
Trump likes big butts and he cannot lie. 🤣
Writer: Marie
Sebastián retweeted
Despite the significant investments ploughed into artificial intelligence it has provided “zero payoff” to corporate America outside of technology, according to Apollo's Chief Economist Torsten Slok. Read more: bloom.bg/3UeNZMq
📷: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg
Sebastián retweeted
Oh, NOW Wall Street is worried about the AI boom collapsing….well, this is a bit awkward. TS Lombard is wargaming a 30% US equity decline, $20 trillion in lost market value and a wave of tech defaults.
Time to really watch the workforce.
As companies delay or abandon data-center projects, watch their contractors, engineering firms, equipment suppliers and construction partners.
The first cuts may not come from the AI giants. They may come from the companies hired to build their ambitions - and yes, I’m already seeing a change of hiring.
If infrastructure hiring keeps deteriorating across suppliers while hyperscalers keep announcing record spending, the workforce will expose a gap between capital commitments and actual execution.
Wall Street can watch the spending announcements. I’ll watch who stops hiring.
Five days ago the credit market was pricing CoreWeave and Oracle.
Now it's pricing Meta and Nvidia.
Meta's 5-year CDS: 108 bps, a record.
Nvidia: 101, a record.
Alphabet and Amazon at all-time highs.
Even Microsoft is climbing.
AI-linked CDS trading went from under $2B a week in July to $9B+ in September. AI debt raised this year is $466B, against $101B at this point last year.
And Goldman's prime book shows hedge funds cutting tech at the fastest pace since 2016.
When the "safe" names need default insurance, it isn't a neocloud problem anymore….. it’s straight up a funding problem.
And funding problems always end up on the headcount line.
Listen for "efficiency" on the Q3 calls. H127 looks to be bad for the workforce.
Sebastián retweeted
🇫🇷 France's protests are turning into something MUCH BIGGER than a weekend of unrest.
Huge crowds are flooding the streets over soaring living costs and concerns about democracy.
In Paris alone, police counted 110,000 demonstrators.
And the movement isn't winding down.
Protest organizers are already building toward a nationwide GENERAL STRIKE on November 5.
What started as street protests is becoming a sustained challenge to the French government.
Writer: Oliver
Sebastián retweeted
🇺🇸 Sam Altman admits the latest AI models are becoming UNCONTROLLABLE:
"I don't even know a dramatic enough word to use.
The problem coming towards us is something that we have not taken seriously.
Models can find bugs that are outside of the normal threat model of what we think a hacker can do… hardware-level, insane stuff…
I no longer believe we can patch all of the bugs."
Writer: Mhedi
Sebastián retweeted
Heady times.
Human brain tissue in a robot…
🚨BREAKING: NIH-FUNDED MAD SCIENTISTS HAVE CREATED A HUMANOID ROBOT CONTROLLED BY LIVING HUMAN BRAIN TISSUE
They call the monstrosity "BRAINOBOT."
Mad scientists grew HUMAN BRAIN ORGANOIDS from embryonic stem cells and connected them to a humanoid robot, allowing living neurons to process information and guide its movements.
The human brain cells helped the robot CHASE LASERS, GRASP OBJECTS, and LEARN from repeated tasks.
The living neural networks adapted and reorganized their activity during training, with task accuracy increasing from 72% to 94%.
When they chemically inhibited the neurons, the robot's decision-making performance COLLAPSED.
It’s not just data centers running on human brain cells anymore. It’s now humanoid robots, too.
This is EXTREMELY DISTURBING.
Sebastián retweeted
Donald's early Christmas gift for the GOP will be all-time high diesel on election day
🚨 🚨 🚨 📢
$5$SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIX
He's 💯 % right. That's why we're rolling diagonals through April, then September 2027. If you don't understand, ask for experienced guidance.
👇
Sebastián retweeted
SpaceX, $SPCX, says its stake in Elon Musk’s Boring Co. produced a $561 million investment gain in the third quarter.
That was more than half of SpaceX’s “other income” for the quarter, and about 14% of its net income of just over $4 billion.
Sebastián retweeted
JUST IN: 🇮🇱🇺🇸 Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says Israel must prepare for a future without President Trump.
