ndiana +3.5 -124 Have you met my pet turtle?  His name is Ryan Day.  Despite always having the most talent, he fails to put inferior teams away.  So let me get this straight, if you surveyed an unbiased college football fan (is there such a thing) most would say Cignetti is the best coach in college football.  Now, you’re going to give me more than a field goal at home?  It’s the Mahomes laying less than a field goal theory, but there’s more to it than that.  When you watched the Nebraska game last week, what hurt the IU defense was Colandrea making plays with his legs.  Sayin is not that guy.  Diving deeper into some advanced analytics, Indiana is Top 5 in negative play rate on defense, Ohio St 75th. Indiana is 5th in YPC, Ohio St. 81st.  Cignetti and Haines will find a way to limit Jeremiah Smith. Now while that may still be 8 catches for 144 (see last year) they did keep him out of the endzone.  Remember last year’s OSU team also had Carnell Tate alongside Smith and the Indiana defense held Ohio St. to 13 points.  Now while this is a different Indiana team, the scheme remains.  This year, Smith has 66 targets, the next closest in target share is 21 for Devin Mcuin, who?  Exactly.  As we have seen from Ryan Day in big games, Texas, Miami, Indiana, even undermanned Michigan teams while he has the talent, he gets very conservative.  I’ll take the Hoosiers. Tennessee +8 The perfect storm here with the last thing we saw of Alabama was them in a slugfest with Georgia, and Tennessee was struggling with the worst team in the SEC.  I think this is a let down spot for Bama after the high emotional loss last week, while Tennessee was caught looking ahead.  Kelon Russell has been great, but he is still 19 and going to Rocky Top will be the toughest environment he has played in.  Tennessee, unlike past years, has a very solid defense this year and I’ll take the home dog north of a touchdown. Oklahoma -6.5 Welcome to the SEC ice cream shop.  This week’s flavor of the week, Kentucky.  The SEC hype machine continues to churn, (get it?) overhyped teams on a weekly basis.  Texas A&M, LSU, Florida, Mississippi State, now it’s the Wildcats turn.  Ranked #15 in the country?  Give me a break.  While I am a big fan of Will Stein, Kenny Minchey, and what this team is doing, this is the week they get caught.  Remember that big win against the “#9 Aggies?” that aged well.  They were in a one score game with South Alabama in the second half, then the back to back OT wins when losing in the 4thquarter. All the credit for those wins, but when they stepped up in class, they got squashed by Alabama.  Don’t misunderstand, this Oklahoma offense isn’t exactly the greatest show on turf, but the defense is still one of the top defenses in the country.  While saying the Sooner offense has struggled is an understatement, look at the defenses they have played – Michigan, Georgia, Texas. Kentucky is not that.  If Mateer does not hand them the ball, literally, I think they can shut down the Kentucky offense.  Should be the fresher team just having their bye two weeks ago.    Michigan State +7.5 -115 This is a gross one as I am no fan of this Spartans team.  However, we are selling this Northwestern team at its peak.  Since when do you see NORTHWESTERN laying more than a TD in Big Ten play.  I like Northwestern as a dog, but when you have the role reversal, we see teams with expectations play tighter when they become the hunted. Purdue last night, anyone? This Northwestern team is now ranked and being talked about as a potential CFP team.  Let’s pump the brakes and take the ugly home dog to muck this one up and hang as the MSU continues to play hard for Fitzgerald.

West Virginia +3.5 -120 @theScoreBet

Northwestern +3 -115 @ BetMGM This is one I’ve had circled before the season started.  Now while we aren’t getting the best number as the look ahead was 7.  I still think this is an outright win for the ‘Cats.  We faded Penn State and Matt Campbell last week and were going to do it again.  Is this team good?  As the kids say, meh.  They don’t do anything great, and the offense isn’t the same with Koby Howard sidelined.  I’ve said it time and time again, Matt Campbell is just an ok coach that brought his ok Iowa St team to State College and they are just “mid”.  Get ready for a shot of him in the 3rd quarter when things go bad and he’s screaming, and his gum is falling out of his mouth.  David Braun’s Northwestern team continues to be underrated and the books have not caught up.  That’s why I love betting college football.  These pre-season projections can be way off with the transfer portal and lack of continuity, and the books are slow to adjust.  Opening night for the new Ryan Field and Northwestern gets the outright win. Colorado +13.5 -114 FD You guy know me and I’m usually the anti-Buffs guy.  Well to be fair, I’m not anti-Buffs, I’m pro-money.  The last two weeks we’ve gotten to the window fading Colorado, but I’m backing them here in what I think we be their last gasp of trying to get up before it may ultimately be the end for the Prime Era.  If there was ever a game to get up for, you’ve got the pre-season favorite, ranked, undefeated team Texas Tech coming in for your conference opener, at night, on National TV.  If they don’t get up for this, they never will.  I like the move to Issac Wilson at QB as he has shown to take some more chances going downfield.  Last week against Baylor, CU actually outgained the Bears and I think we get their best effort.    West Virginia +3.5 -115 @Bet365 I like WVU to bounce back here against the Cyclones.  West Virigina took their first L last week in a back and forth game against Oklahoma State, a team that I think is still not getting enough credit for how good they are despite beating Oregon.  Iowa St. burned me last week and it was never the right side.  Rich Rod and Hawkins at QB are flying under the radar and getting north of a field goal here is too good to pass up. UNC TT under 13.5 -125 @ Hard Rock Gave this out as my Best Bet on the show this week.  This ND defense is ELITE. I’ve played the opponent team total under every week, and cashed every week.  I don’t see how this UNC team gets 2 TDs on this defense.  Could be some weather too that will limit the Tar Heel offense.   Purdue +10 Speaking of Notre Dame, Purdue was shutdown by the Notre Dame defense last week.  Prior to that, this offense had put up points on some pretty good teams, 38 again UCLA and 36 against Wake.  I think this is a good spot to buy low on the Boilers.  Can you buy low on Purdue?  Aren’t they always low?  Anyway, this should be a high scoring affair again an Illinois defense that does not even have a defensive coordinator.  Really.  Bobby Hauck was fired just 4 games into the season.  This Illinois defense is bad and I think the Purdue offense can keep pace. Minnesota +6.5 -114 Bet Rivers Row the boat.  Did you watch Iowa-Michigan last week?  Welcome to part 2 of hell.  If you missed that game go check out you son’s CYO game because Minnesota stole their playbook.  Darious Taylor will be back and healthy for Minnesota.  While I’ve always been a backer of Whittingham over the years, he seems to have lost his fast ball a bit and I’ll take the home dog in a low scoring game.

Notre Dame -20.5 -120. @ScoreBetCasino UNC TT Under 13.5 -125 @HardRockBet

Early plays @FanDuel Georgia -13.5 -115 Wisconsin +10.5 -122 Baylor -6.5 -115 Oregon ML -125 Minnesota +9.5 -115