etchedinadventure

Investing into #Altcoins is the best thing to do. It might sound weird, but it’s the best thing to do currently. They have lost 70% in their value against Bitcoin in the past three months, updates are getting delayed and the sentiment is super bearish. Some altcoins are in a three year bear market. Still. What’s happening and why is it the best thing to do? In this longread I’ll be discussing my view on why they are suffering and what’s likely going to come next. The reason why they are suffering can be provided in multiple variables and segments. It’s focused on Bitcoin, it’s focused outside of crypto and it’s solely focused on Ethereum and the way liquidity moves through the markets. First of all, the altcoin cycle and different phases haven’t really changed. First, Bitcoin needs to move, then Ethereum needs to move and then the large caps, mid caps and small caps will follow suit. Technically, that didn’t change and that wasn’t different during this cycle either. During October 2023 – January 2024, the markets have been seeing a substantial uptick in the Bitcoin valuations of many of those altcoins, hand-in-hand with Bitcoin showing momentum due to the fact that the hype surrounding the ETF started to accelerate. However, this reversed entirely from the moment of the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF due to a simple reason. Hype. Crypto-native people have seen the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and saw the liquidity influx from traditional finance into Bitcoin. That’s where you could get the return! And yes, Bitcoin has ran from $40K to $73K in a matter of a few months, so that’s where the return was made for the most part, through which investors and speculators decided to swap their altcoins to Bitcoin to make a larger return in USD values. That’s the first reason of the current weakness of altcoins and why this strength didn’t continue. The altcoin cycles haven’t changed at all, it’s still here. Just slightly different. Secondly, Ethereum has been suffering entirely. The ETF isn’t looking very positive in a sense that the chances of an approval are simply not as positive as we expected it to be and likely, once it will be approved, there won’t be a significant influx either. However, Ethereum is a representative for the rest of the markets. If Ethereum isn’t classified as a security, it’s a kickstart for a large scope of projects to not be called one either. The start of the strength on the altcoin markets. The chances of the Ethereum ETF is close to zero. At this point in time, without information from the SEC on what they classify as a potential security. The upcoming events are important to keep an eye on: - Ethereum ETF approval/delay/denial on the 23rd/24th of May for 2 ETFs. Invesco, which had a deadline on May 7th, was delayed by 60 days. Not entirely a negative response, as they could have easily declined it. - Ethereum foundation court case, and information from the SEC on the Ethereum ETF applications on what’s the part that they think is a security or not. Is it the ICO at the start? Staking? Both? - FIT21 bill to be voted on in the House in the U.S. A bipartisan bill that has been worked on for multiple years and finally is getting a vote in the House, which should provide a regulatory framework for crypto. Voting is going to be in May / beginning June. - XRP lawsuit is going to be ending really soon, as the final deadlines for feedback have been provided and a conclusion needs to be drawn from this and the final sentence. It can flip both sides, but the markets are pricing in the worst case scenario at this point, where the markets are expecting a denial for the Ethereum ETF. That’s fully understandable. However, I’d like to make the comparison with the crash of FTX. In the months prior, markets haven’t been moving at all and where pushed downwards. Are you telling me that insiders didn’t know about the trouble within the FTX ecosystem? I bet they did and I bet they kept prices low. The day that FTX collapsed, a correction took place across the board and it marked the cycle low. You could arguably say the same about the current price action of Ethereum approaching the ETF. The markets are pricing in the worst à a denial and the clarification that Ethereum is a security. If that news comes out; it’s fully expected. It’s there. Now what? A setback, or not? This is the primarily reason that we’ve not been seeing a rotation back from Bitcoin to altcoins, as the sentiment surrounding altcoins is super negative at this point in time. It’s being fueled by negative news, while there’s also a lot of positive news taking place, which is simply not getting the spotlight at this point. After the strength of Bitcoin, the halving that took place and the slow unwind of the hype of the ETF (inflows were stalling at some point in April and the Dollar kept continuing its strength as Powell suggested that there won’t be any rate cuts for the entire year), it resulted into a rotation from Bitcoin towards cash. Not altcoins. However, we’re on the point that the rotation is actually taking place from cash and Bitcoin towards altcoins. This is the point in time, the worst is priced in, investors and speculators might start to see that there’s a huge opportunity cost in having altcoins rather than Bitcoin and that’s where the tables start to turn. Next weeks are going to be important, as it will give a significant intel on what Ethereum will be classified with from the standpoint of the SEC. I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as most people suggest it will be. Just like the ETF on Bitcoin wasn’t as positive as most people expected it to be in the short-term. From this aspect, the altcoin cycles haven’t adjusted. They are still here. Bitcoin did move first, but captured the momentum substantially due to the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF and the huge amount of influx coming into the ETF. That’s fine. From that point, you would expect that the rotation to altcoins was taking place. It didn’t. It’s delayed and it starts to happen. Once Ethereum starts to show momentum, it’s the time that altcoins are providing an even larger return. That’s the beta of the markets. Altcoins have a significantly large Beta in your investment thesis, that’s completely right, as they do have this on the downside as well. They have dropped by 70% in the past three months, Bitcoin is only down 10-15%. Part of the game. On the other hand, from October ’23 till January/February ’24 altcoins have been going up by, sometimes, even 1,000%. Incredible performance. At this point in time and the likely amount of adoption, hype and continuation, it might be expected that we’ll see the same returns in the next six months. Especially once Ethereum is going to be waking up from it’s sleep. Coming back to the title. Investments need to be made during the periods of the least certainty. Why? That’s where the highest amount of opportunity cost can be made. It’s always like that. If you feel super uncertain about buying a particular asset and the whole sentiment is like that, usually it’s the best period to do it. Remember the start of 2020 with COVID-19? Yes, that’s when nobody was thinking about Bitcoin and Bitcoin crashed to $3,700. It was the best moment of the past six years to be buying Bitcoin. Lowest confidence à highest chances. It’s the same for altcoins. The time is now.

Markets did bounce from the crucial area at $61K and #Altcoins are waking up. It’s the final accumulation period before the big surge.

#Altcoins are getting crushed substantially, but ultimately they are the gateway of achieving more Bitcoin in a bull cycle. Your ultimate goal: Get as much Bitcoin as you can. My ultimate goal for now: Get as much Bitcoin and Ethereum as I can. They are the blue chips.