Trying to make sense of it all.
Joined September 2016
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NU7 brings 25s blocks to Zcash on Nov 5. Relay speed decides orphan rates.
My #ZECATHON entry, priority-fill relay, sends new blocks to the best relayers first. No fork needed.
1,000-node model: orphaned blocks 16.2% → 6.0%.
Watch it: web-production-b8358a.up.rai… #Zcash
@zksnarks_
Paul retweeted
Quantifying the Future
This is what a $2 trillion economy will look like by 2040…
+ 1x port facility with 3x8km lay down area
+ 1x robot fab plant producing 100 bots / hr
+ 1x 1GW datacenter running inference
+ 1x 3GW nuclear power station
= 2 million robots labouring 24/7
We know enough today to model the thermodynamics and the market economics of such a site already. The numbers above are the ballpark numbers you end up with, feel free to challenge or change for your own assumptions.
Embodiment is the ceiling for both the thermodynamics and economics, as compute (and intelligence) pretty much trends towards zero under Moore’s Law.
Assuming a robot is 500W of Newtonian motion, as humanoids are, then 2,000,000 robots working 24/7 is 1GW of demand for the robots’ actuators.
Let’s also assume a 1GW datacenter is required for inference for 2m robots, supervised by a central monolithic superintelligence. That’s 2GW total.
Then for the sack of maintenance and replacement, we assume 500MW robot fab can produce 100 robots an hour (only ~ 5 ton of product / hr, below a car plant, but includes chips). That’s now 2.5GW site total.
For 2,000,000 robots to create $2T of value, each bot needs to add $1m of value each year
Seems a lot, but each robot is assumed to work 24/7 and only last ~2 years before it is defunct.
24x365 =8,760 hrs/yr
=>$114/hr
Seems high at first, but this is a hyper collaborative hive mind marshalled by 2040 superintelligence. $114/hr is what you pay for a car mechanic in 2026, and we are using 2026 dollars here.
We can even look at the thermo and economic density and the total footprint of this economy is just tiny.
3x8km is 24km^2 (about 6,000 acres).
= 83,000 robots / km^2 = 12m^2 per robot
Thermal dissipation
= 500W / 12m^2
= 41.7W/m^2 (just 2-3% of solar insolence)
Value add density
=$1m / 12m^2
=$83k / m^2 <- Wow!!
This is $2T GDP from just 8km of coastline
Or $500bn of GDP per km of dockside
The entire economy can be compressed into the 3km deep dockyard behind the dockside.
That’s an economy the size of Australia or Mexico in a land area the size of San Francisco Airport.
This is absolutely where the future economy is going, nothing can compete with the capital efficiency of this setup. Nothing.
Docks are also crucial as it’s simply not possible to handle the prerequisite volume of cargo and goods for such an economy using anything other than isomodal freight handling systems.
If your nation state is interested in adding $2 trillion to its tax base… my DMs are open.
Always order hardware wallets to an Amazon post box or something similar!
We owe you an apology.
On October 20, we detected unauthorized access to our official website. After verifying API activity with Shopify, we confirmed on October 23 that a third party obtained customer shipping information. You trusted us with those details, and we're sorry we didn't keep them safe.
Exposed: names, contact details, shipping addresses, and order details (items and prices).
Not exposed: payment card or bank details, recovery phrases, private keys, or wallet passwords.
We've blocked access, fixed the vulnerability, opened an investigation, and are emailing affected customers.
Scammers may pose as Keystone by phone, text, email, or mail, offering refunds, replacement devices, or "fixes" for your order or address. None of it is from us.
NEVER share your recovery phrase or private keys, and NEVER enter your recovery phrase into a device you didn't order. We will never ask for them. Don't click links in unexpected messages. Type keyst.one yourself.
A detailed report is coming soon.
Until then, trust only our official channels. If anything feels off, email [email protected]. We'd rather hear from you than have you take a chance.
Again, we're truly sorry to everyone affected.
Paul retweeted
Mask Off Moment
This is an anonymous account I use to post a bunch of deep tech content on X covering heavy industry, light industry, technology trends, industrial bottlenecks, weird explainers and esoteric insights. iykyk.
A lot of very talented people (many of whom run amazing companies) DM me saying please keep posting “this is the best content on X”. I get DMs from VCs asking about companies, and DMs from LPs asking about industrial and economic theories. This is all very flattering, and whilst I sometimes post a bit sporadically I do try and make the effort to tap out a new post most days.
The quality of people who follow @object_zero_ is frankly phenomenal, it’s a real privilege to have this channel in my pocket. 40k followers including world leaders, centi-billionaires, serial inventors and entrepreneurs, world renowned scientists, and engineers. I would say it’s a mix, but the reality is that it’s not a mix at all, it’s an extremely high mean and median.
I have posted about shipbuilding, nuclear power, the Kroll process, silicon carbide, laser interferometry, heavy steel forging, machine learning, design engineering, CFD, manufacturing methods, power transmission and HVDC. I post about energy and commodities and industry and global macroeconomics. I post about mines and prospecting, minerals on the sea bed and drilling and producing hydrocarbon basins.
Don’t worry… I’m not leaving. I’m not ill and I’m not asking for anything.
A quick apology… I would post here more often, except I don’t have the time. I am able to post with a bit more breadth and depth because I am genuinely engaged in these things. I don’t want to be presumptive, but I think the people who have reached out to talk to me about their work would attest to this.
I simplify a lot of the posts so I don’t collapse the audience, but if you reach out in the comments or DM you can get much sharper commentary.
So what is this post?
Well, it’s time that I start talking about what I am actually doing irl, who I am, what I am engaged in. Some people on X already know some loose details, some people have met me as Object Zero.
But irl, I work about 5,000 hours a year and have done so for 20 years, I believe hard work puts you in a privileged place. It changes you.
Over the years I’ve invented and developed new industrial technologies, I’ve built big things, I’ve executed major capital projects. I feel I understand what the world needs in the 2030s and where we are falling short.
If you believe you are capable of such things, then you have an obligation to society to go and do them.
I am confident I know what it’s possible to do, and what it takes to get it done.
I intend to solve our energy infrastructure, generation and transmission and the big BTM loads that are emerging.
I’ve already hired the best people in the world for this, people who have architected $6bn assets, people who have commanded $40bn fleets. I’ve hired the best research faculty from the best university.
This isn’t a game.
We’ve already built and tested the first prototypes, we are already completing the permission processes, the licences and the permits. All the elements already exist, it just needs 21st Century system integration.
Because technology has changed, the past is already obsolete, the genie is out of the bottle, the 21st century is getting built on a Western tech stack and/or an Eastern tech stack. There is no in between, there is no middle ground. Both sides have strengths and weaknesses, but if we want freedom we’re going to have to earn it again.
We are going to build the biggest products (by mass) that have ever been manufactured, we are going to build a lot of them.
They’re going to change the world, and we’re going to get more of this…
Paul retweeted
UPDATE: I can confirm that the Ledger supply chain is compromised in Europe as well. @Ledger should initiate an immediate product recall to protect users.
I just purchased a second device from a different Mediamarkt location today, recorded the unboxing process, and discovered spyware once again (video linked in the second tweet).
The device was compromised in the exact same manner, featuring identical modifications (such as additional cables and an LTE module). This indicates its a widespread issue rather than an isolated incident, potentially affecting Ledger inventory across MediaMarkt and Saturn stores throughout Europe (comprising over 1,000 stores across 11 countries).
My initial hypothesis was that these devices were returns that looked unopened to the employees and were just sold again as new however, a MediaMarkt employee confirmed that the device I purchased was not a return, and that returned Ledgers are sent directly back to the manufacturer rather than resold.
Store records show the inventory originated from Aqipa GmbH. While Ledger's CTO was unsure if Aqipa serves as the direct distributor between Ledger and MediaMarkt, it appears to be the case. Given that Aqipa distributes across Europe, any physical retail store receiving stock through them may be at risk.
I sent the first ledger to mark and the second one is going to ledger now, so that they can analyse it.
If you purchased a ledger from anyone other than the official ledger store, make sure to check your device!!
Paul retweeted
In order to protect an essential value, you have to constantly change.
You have to adapt to meet your users changing needs, and to meet new threats and challenges.
Paul retweeted
Hey if anybody from OpenAI is reading this, could you please get in touch and help scientists strengthen computer security?
Paul retweeted
Live here for anyone who wants to test it now 👇
zstreet.cash/
Still need to improve mobile responsiveness and performance.
Don’t just read the chain. Walk it.
Introducing ZStreet, @Zcash as a living city with @zksnarks_ people.
Coming soon. 🛡️
Paul retweeted
隐私是自由
隐私是秩序
隐私是进步
vitalik.eth.limo/general/202…
Paul retweeted
The statue of Prometheus is finally finished.
It was cast in Paris, crossed the Atlantic, and was assembled at Starbase. It took us 100 days to go from nothing to this.
People of the West, we have lived through an era devoid of dreams, devoid of destiny.
But the time has come to reclaim our dream of antiquity.
In a few months, we will start building a new city. It will be the most magnificent city in all of history.
After all, the great dream of the West has always been to rebuild Rome.
Come walk beside us in this endeavor. The world is waiting.
Tachyon is very impressive crypto tech. This will take zcash to a new level when it gets adopted.
Paul retweeted
The reactor team at @terraformindies has demonstrated successful production of high purity methanol at scale at our Muroc desert test site.
Let's review our progress in 2026. In January, we closed on our Muroc test site. By March, construction was underway. By May, we had 1.8 MW of solar installed. In July, we produced CO2 on site (teapaw.org/CJHandmer/status/20801…), and in August, hydrogen (teapaw.org/CJHandmer/status/20847…).
Terraform Industries has built an incredible team to revolutionize not just one or two key technical pieces, but the entire stack required to convert sunlight and air into fuel. Like plants, only 100 times higher productivity per acre and requiring no irrigation, fertilizer, or pesticide.
Two years ago, Terraform produced pipeline-grade natural gas for the first time. Since then, we've scaled up our methane reactor, increasing production by 250x and reducing contaminants by 10x, which allows us to increasing revenue per unit of product by 100x because it's now at chemically pure grade.
But it was always clear to me that natural gas was only one piece of the puzzle. It is possible to convert natural gas into other hydrocarbon products like gasoline or jet fuel, but given our precursors are CO2 and hydrogen, we can do one better by directly synthesizing methanol as well.
Methanol is far easier to convert into longer chain hydrocarbon products, either via the MeOH->DME->ethylene pathway, MTG, or via variations on Fischer-Tropsch.
Methanol also has significantly higher revenue per molecule than pipeline natural gas, which forms an essential part of our cost-reduction-through-profitable-scale-up strategy, explained in more detail in our post: terraformindustries.wordpres…
TL;DR: If our learning rate is above 11%, our margins will strictly increase as we scale up into a market worth about $10t/year. Not including induced demand.
Amir joined the team earlier this year and speed ran the methanol reactor development program, successfully demonstrating recirculation and heat recycling before integrating these new technologies in a production scale reactor, built from the ground up at Terraform's facility in Burbank.
As soon as the hydrogen team was done, we shipped our latest reactor up to the desert, plugged it in, and began activating the catalyst. An extended test campaign through the heat of summer followed, punctuated by bunnies nibbling on hoses!
The hard work paid off, with Terraform's production of significant batches of high purity methanol, now packaged and ready to ship. A huge congratulation to the entire team, including Amir, Enric, Dominic, Hugo, and @lucie_nurdin.
With the completion of this test, Terraform has now demonstrated TRL 9 operation of all of its subcomponents, each developed from scratch, in house, to deliver the highest possible value to the end customer.
Terraform will never rest until we have broken the geological and geographical monopoly on oil, unlocking unconditional energy abundance for all of humanity. Join us!
Last week the hydrogen electrolyzer team @terraformindies pulled off yet another first, the sustained production of >99.9% pure H2 from our vertically integrated, California-manufactured electrolyzer stack while it was coupled directly to a solar array at our Muroc desert test site.
WTAF?
Most commercial electrolyzers need carefully conditioned power from expensive battery-meditated backup systems. Ours runs directly off the sun. Clouds pass, the day turns to night, and we maintain purity from a stack whose Bill of Materials cost is well below $100/kW.
Terraform's single-minded focus on capex reduction has allowed us to convert sunlight to hydrogen in an unprecedented demo at a cost below $2/kg. If that wasn't enough, we have a crystal clear plan of steady execution to push that cost below $1/kg in the coming years.
Rather than linger on this point in response to experts-with-spreadsheets who said this was not only beyond my team, it was forbidden by known laws of physics, let me tell you a bit about how we actually pulled this off.
We started building this test site in March. Once the panels and electrics were in place the CO2 team were the first to demonstrate production on site. Close behind them the electrolyzer team planned the logistics necessary to project substantial operational ability into a hostile test site in the middle of nowhere. It's no good to find you're missing a wrench half way through the day!
Much of the test prep was completed before dawn, when the panels go live. The sun came up and the stack immediately started splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen. The team carefully monitored purity and flammability as the sun climbed through the sky. As designed, the stack warmed up and conducted even more power, maintaining solid production until late afternoon when the setting sun shaded the panels.
Terraform's synthetic fuel system is uniquely designed to follow the sun and extract the maximum possible value from cheap solar panels.
Hydrogen is a pernicious molecule. It leaks through and embrittles metals, burns almost invisibly at a wide range of mixtures in air, burns hot and fast and can easily undergo detonation transition, and has about half a dozen other spookily dangerous properties. My advice is to never work with it unless you absolutely have to. The Terraformer produces and consumes H2 in one compact discrete area with a minimum of complexity and fuss, and as expected this demo was completed in accordance with our rigorous safety standards and no unscheduled excitement!
This successful demonstration was also a profound milestone for the team after a testing anomaly last December compelled us to finally rip off the bandaid and move decisively towards the "future design" with half the parts but considerable complexity in assembly. No-one else makes electrolyzers this way and we, more than anyone, know exactly why. And also how to do it anyway, translating directly into a unique cost advantage.
A huge congratulation to Ken, Sherman, @ckalitin, Nikhil, Abdullah, and Aaron for their successful test campaign.
Terraform's hydrogen and CO2 are the chemical precursors for synthetic methane and methanol, which we make in our own synthetic fuel reactor.
Combined, we make oil and gas out of sunlight and air. We are breaking the geological and geographical monopolies on oil production.
In the limit, Terraform will deploy these electrolyzers by the millions and they will all be plug-and-play with solar PV arrays.
The Muroc smoke test campaign is far from over.
We will win!
Paul retweeted
It's only dead if you give up
I'm not giving up on privacy. I'm doubling down.
firefly.social/post/x/210138…
Paul retweeted
A fully and rapidly reusable rocket will fundamentally change how humanity accesses outer space. “The Holy Grail of Rocketry” continues the ongoing Starship series with a look back at the scrappy days of SpaceX engineers proving reuse was possible and takes you onboard a high-seas race to recover a floating Starship
Paul retweeted
Humans: We can’t solve global warming.
Mother Nature: Look, dumbass. I’ve been showing you how. Get sulfur high enough into the atmosphere and Earth cools. Need me to make it more obvious? Fine. Here’s a giant mountain near the equator that shoots lava into the sky.
Humans: Volcano scary.
Mother Nature: Fine. The oil and gas you’re already pulling out of the ground often comes with sulfur too. You already remove it at industrial scale with the Claus process. I literally packaged the warming fuel and the feedstock for cooling together, including sour oil and gas fields in the tropics so all have to do it make it go up.
Humans: Okay but what if we throw soup at a painting and seize the means of production?
Paul retweeted
The Nuclear Family is a Technology of Western Civilization – So It Needs to Be Destroyed With All the Others.
The nuclear family is not a natural unit. It is a technology – the most successful child-rearing, wealth-transmitting, civilization-building technology ever developed. And like every other Western technology that works, it is currently being systematically dismantled.
1. Every society in history has organized reproduction and child-rearing somehow. The Eastern clan, the tribe, the loyalty network – these are the alternatives. They work, up to a point, for the societies that run on them. They produce strong internal solidarity and fierce external competition. They also produce nepotism over meritocracy, loyalty over competence, the network over the individual. Low-trust societies stay small and family-based – unable to build the large institutions, the corporations, the rule of law that require trust between strangers. The nuclear family is the Western solution: small enough to invest maximally in children, open enough to produce citizens who can cooperate beyond the clan.
2. It is a technology in the precise sense: a solution to a problem, developed through trial and error over millennia, encoding accumulated wisdom that is not immediately visible to those who inherit it. It aligned incentives with extraordinary precision – the man invested in children he was certain were his, the woman had a committed partner for the most vulnerable years, the children had two adults with maximum skin in the game. And crucially: it introduced a free market for mating rather than arranged marriage. Individuals chose their partners – which meant attraction, compatibility, and genuine commitment rather than clan negotiation. The most intimate human bond brought into the competitive, meritocratic framework that produces everything else the West does well.
3. The attack follows the standard pattern. Reframe the technology as oppression. Celebrate the alternatives as liberation. Restructure the incentives – welfare systems that replace the husband, legal systems that make marriage a liability for men, cultural systems that mock the committed father. Then watch the institution dissolve.
4. The data is not ambiguous. Children raised by married biological parents outperform children from every other arrangement on every measurable outcome. This is one of the largest and most replicated findings in social science. The nuclear family is not one lifestyle choice among many equivalent options. It is the arrangement that produces the best human beings at scale. Which is precisely why it had to go.
5. The deepest damage is not measurable. The nuclear family was the primary transmission mechanism of civilization – values, habits, language, culture, and identity passed from one generation to the next in the most intensive possible environment. Destroy this transmission mechanism and you don’t just produce worse outcomes for individuals. You break the chain. The torch cannot change hands if the hands are gone.
6. The replacement is the state. When the family dissolves, the state expands to fill the functions the family performed. This is not a coincidence. It is the design. Tocqueville described it: the soft despotism that replaces every horizontal bond with a vertical dependency on the government shepherd. The nuclear family was the primary horizontal bond. Its dissolution is the prerequisite for the complete vertical dependency the administrative state requires.
7. The nuclear family is not a conservative preference or a religious requirement. Defend it not because it is traditional. Defend it because it works – and because what is offered in its place doesn’t. The clan and the tribe produce loyalty. The administrative state produces dependency. The nuclear family, with its free market for mating and its maximum investment in the next generation, produces citizens. That is the one thing the system replacing it cannot afford to produce.
