Scott Russell

ALT 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (30%/70%): Limited shower activity is associated with a low pressure area 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression will likely form late this week as the system moves W to WNW. 2. East of the Windward Islands (near 0%): Disorganized showers from a tropical wave are located 600 miles east of the Windward Islands. Development is not expected due to dry air, but heavy rain and gusty winds are possible in the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days. 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic (10%): A low pressure trough northeast of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms. Some development is possible over the next day or so as it moves eastward.

ALT Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later today or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to the forecast. More info at hurricanes.gov