DeFi & Perp DEX researcher | Farming strategies, airdrops & onchain data | Free farming dashboards & analytics ↓
Joined February 2024
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Farming Lighter, RISEx or TxFlow?
These free tools might be useful for you.
Over the past few months, I've been building tools for the 3 Perp DEXs I'm farming the most:
– @Lighter_xyz
– @risextrade
– @TxFlow_L1
The idea behind them is pretty simple: understand how much farming actually costs and what those points could eventually be worth.
Depending on the dashboard, you can:
– Track your trading activity, fees and points.
– Estimate your cost per point.
– Build your own scenarios using different FDVs and airdrop allocations.
– See how your potential rewards compare with your farming costs.
Nothing is guaranteed, of course.
The valuations are just assumptions you can adjust yourself.
I'm not a developer. I've basically taken ideas I had in my head, used ChatGPT and free tools, and slowly turned them into dashboards I actually use for my own farming.
They were scattered across different links, so I've finally put everything in one place.
You'll find it in my X bio. It's the only link on my profile, so it's easy to find.
Everything is free. No subscriptions or paywalls.
I don't make a living from this, and I'm not looking to monetize it.
I just enjoy building things that help me improve my strategies, and sharing them with others.
If you find any of these tools useful, feel free to use them and share them with other farmers.
That's already more than enough for me.
RISEx farming is getting more competitive.
And the numbers are starting to show it.
Week 14 results:
→ 457.4 RISE Points
→ $2.10M trading volume
→ $1.15/point in trading fees
→ $0.98/point after arbitrage profits
→ 6,573 accounts received points
That last number is important.
For weeks, @risextrade was distributing points to roughly 5,600–6,000 accounts.
Now we're at 6,573.
Competition is finally starting to pick up.
And with the same 200K weekly points being distributed, more participants could make farming increasingly expensive.
How did I improve my efficiency this week?
- XRP trading with the 20% points boost.
- SPY/QQQ arbitrage to offset part of my trading fees.
- Higher trading activity while keeping my effective cost under control.
My raw cost was $1.15 per point, but after accounting for arbitrage profits, my effective cost dropped to $0.98.
That's exactly the kind of strategy I want to keep refining.
> Why am I still pushing RISEx?
My personal bearish valuation scenario is around $10/point at a $500M FDV.
It's my estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
But acquiring points around $1 against that scenario still offers an R:R I find extremely attractive.
And with other perp farming campaigns eventually coming to an end, I believe RISEx could attract some of that capital.
The opportunity is still here, but the competition is growing.
I'll keep pushing volume, testing bonus markets and working toward automating my arbitrage strategy.
Until the numbers tell me it's no longer worth it.
Farm aggressively when the R:R makes sense.
Protect capital when it doesn't.
TxFlow Season 0 points are live.
Open your @TxFlow_L1 Points section and select “View History” to check your allocation.
What the first distribution tells us:
- 10.76M S0 points were distributed.
- Keeping meaningful OI open appears to have carried real weight.
- Pure wash trading during preseason does not appear to have been rewarded.
- At a $500M FDV, the current S0 + projected S1 model implies roughly $1.58 per point.
That $1.58 estimate assumes there are no further points seasons.
I do not think that is the most likely outcome. If TxFlow runs Season 2 and Season 3, more points enter the model and the value per point is diluted.
You can test your own FDV, S2 and S3 assumptions in my TxFlow Dashboard.
Link in the first reply / my bio.
Think you're already late to @risextrade ?
I think you're looking at it the wrong way.
RISEx isn't even among the top 20 perp DEXs by trading volume yet.
And that's exactly why I'm paying attention.
Look at where the protocol stands today:
→ ~$3.6B in 30-day perp volume
→ Still fewer than 6,000 weekly points recipients in recent distributions
→ Less than one-third of its farming campaign completed
→ TWAP and Scale Orders already introduced
→ Trading interface and mobile experience improving
→ Native spot trading now being tested
That last point is particularly interesting.
@sam_battenally recently confirmed testing a fully EVM-based spot orderbook on RISEx testnet, reporting ~10ms round-trip latency.
Nothing is live on mainnet yet, and there's no confirmed launch date.
But let's put this into perspective.
How long did other perp DEXs take to introduce spot after their points campaigns began?
- Hyperliquid: ~167 days to first spot mainnet
- Aster: ~145 days
- Lighter: ~315 days
- RISEx: 99 days to its first reported spot test
Not exactly the same milestone, but it shows how early RISEx is expanding its product.
And remember what happened with Hyperliquid.
Its spot ecosystem eventually became another important opportunity for early participants, with initiatives like PURR rewarding its existing community.
I'm not saying RISEx will repeat that playbook.
No spot points, retroactive rewards or additional allocations have been announced.
But here's what matters to me:
RISEx still has almost two-thirds of its expected farming campaign ahead, and the team is already building beyond perpetual futures.
Spot might initially launch with just a few markets. It won't automatically make RISEx another Hyperliquid.
But it could bring more liquidity, more users and new opportunities for traders and farmers.
I'm not farming RISEx because it's already one of the biggest perp DEXs.
I'm farming it because I believe it has room to grow while competition for points is still relatively low.
Of course, better products don't guarantee adoption.
But if RISEx keeps growing, I doubt farming conditions will remain this attractive forever.
Being early isn't about joining a winner. It's about positioning before everyone agrees it might become one.
And if you're still on the sidelines, you can start farming RISEx with a 12.5% points boost through my referral:
rise.trade/en/invite/smart
..
What if @predictdotfun farmers end up getting rewarded before Polymarket farmers?
For months, @Polymarket has attracted most of the attention around prediction market airdrops.
But meanwhile, Predict .fun might be getting ready to steal the spotlight.
And the pre-market pricing is getting interesting.
$PREDICT is now trading on several perp venues:
– Binance Futures
– Bybit
– Aster
– TxFlow
With indicative prices around $1.40–$1.80, that would imply a $1.4B–$1.8B FDV, assuming a 1B token supply.
That's a serious valuation for a prediction market protocol.
And here's where the farming angle gets interesting.
Community estimates suggest roughly $0.15–$0.35 per Predict Point, depending on the token allocation, total points and launch valuation.
None of that is official. Pre-market prices can be very misleading, and there's still uncertainty around actual airdrop allocations.
> My personal experience?
I farmed Predict fun, but nowhere near as much as Polymarket.
Like many farmers, I spent most of my time where everyone else was looking.
Now I'm wondering whether the smaller opportunity might actually deliver rewards sooner.
Predict fun also has an interesting position within the BNB ecosystem, somewhat reminiscent of how Aster emerged in the Perp DEX narrative.
That doesn't guarantee success, of course.
Sometimes the best farming opportunity isn't the one everyone spends the most time on.
It's the one that rewards users before the crowd expects it.
Did you farm Predict fun, or were you focused entirely on Polymarket?
Why am I earning so few points on @Lighter_xyz?
If you've been farming Lighter on RH, generating decent volume but receiving fewer points than expected, your free Standard account might be the reason.
There's been some controversy around this lately, but the rules haven't actually changed.
Let me explain.
1. The problem with Standard accounts (0 fees)
Standard accounts can earn points, but there's a catch:
→ Standard vs Standard: No points
→ Standard vs Plus/Premium: Eligible for points
The problem? You can't see what type of account is on the other side of your trade.
So you might be generating plenty of volume without all of it counting toward your points.
2. Market orders vs. limit orders
Both can earn points, but how you execute matters.
→ Limit orders: If another Standard account fills your order, you won't earn points.
→ Market orders: You're more likely to trade against Premium market makers providing liquidity.
This could improve your chances of earning points, but you'll have to pay the spread.
And there's no guarantee that every market order qualifies.
3. Why are points getting harder to earn?
My theory is that competition has increased, with more farmers potentially using free Standard accounts to avoid fees.
I even experienced my own account being switched to Premium unexpectedly for a few weeks.
So perhaps the mix of accounts you're trading against has changed, even though the rules haven't.
That's my interpretation, not something Lighter has confirmed.
4. What about the Robinhood boosts?
Even if you're using the Robinhood Wallet 2× boost or the 2.5× hedging boost, they only apply to eligible trading activity.
If you're on Standard and your trade matches another Standard account, those boosts won't generate points for that trade.
> My take
If you're farming with a free Standard account, don't focus only on trading volume.
Market orders might help you reach more eligible counterparties, but the spread can increase your real farming costs.
Plus and Premium accounts have an eligibility advantage, although they charge trading fees.
The goal isn't just to generate more volume. It's to generate more volume that actually counts toward points.
Source: Lighter team clarification on Discord.
Why does buying BTC at $80K feel harder than buying it at $60K?
I've been thinking about this a lot lately.
We spent so much time with BTC between $60K and $70K. I bought some, but looking back, it never feels like enough.
Now BTC is hovering around $80K, and sentiment on CT somehow feels worse than when we were at $60K.
And here's the psychological trap:
– I want BTC to dip so my buy orders get filled.
– But when it dips, I wonder if I'm still buying too high.
– And if it pumps, I regret not buying more earlier.
Sound familiar?
My plan hasn't changed.
I've placed a ladder of BTC buy orders from ~$81K down to $75K.
If they all fill, great. If they don't, I already have exposure.
Personally, I think we've seen the bottom, although I could obviously be wrong.
And over the long term, I sometimes wonder how much I'll care whether I bought at $75K, $80K or $85K.
With altcoins, I'm more selective. Right now, I'm mainly accumulating LIT and HYPE through liquidity pools.
The hardest part of accumulating isn't always finding a good price. It's accepting that you'll never know the perfect one.
Are you buying these dips, or still waiting for lower prices?
My best week farming Lighter points
Also my most expensive one
Week 10 of @Lighter_xyz × Robinhood Chain is over, and the results are pretty surprising
→ 93.69 points (vs ~10 last week)
→ $1.2M trading volume
→ Top market: SPY
→ Bearish estimated value: $552
Almost 9× more points than last week, with a relatively similar trading volume.
Sounds amazing, right?
Well, not exactly.
What changed this week?
I've been optimizing my strategy by trading SPY and QQQ spreads between Lighter and RISEx, keeping delta-neutral exposure
I also traded GOOGLE quite actively this week, as I suspected some markets might be receiving additional point incentives
But the biggest difference came from something I definitely didn't plan
One of my larger positions got liquidated
During a period of volatility, my Lighter position was liquidated. I immediately closed the opposite position on RISEx.
The liquidation ended up costing me approximately $600
And based on this week's distribution, it seems that liquidation activity contributed significantly to my points
Now let's talk about valuation
My dashboard uses an intentionally pessimistic scenario:
→ $3 LIT price
→ Continued points inflation until year-end
→ ~$6 per point
→ 93.69 points ≈ $562
Personally, I think this scenario might be too pessimistic
But I prefer using conservative assumptions to understand whether my farming is actually profitable
And under this scenario, the estimated value of all my points doesn't even cover the liquidation cost, let alone other trading expenses
Of course, a more favorable valuation could change the outcome
But that's the problem: those points don't have a guaranteed dollar value
> My takeaway
I'm still very bullish on Lighter and $LIT.
But that doesn't mean every farming week is profitable
This was my best week in points, and also my most expensive
I'll keep optimizing my SPY/QQQ strategy, improving execution and trying to avoid unnecessary liquidations
Never farm liquidations intentionally
Taking a guaranteed loss in exchange for uncertain future rewards isn't a strategy I want to rely on
Not everything you see on X is profit
Sometimes the most impressive farming results come with a cost that nobody shows
And speaking of efficiency, Lighter has now officially clarified how its points boosts work
Here's how to make the most of them without taking unnecessary risks ↓
Lighter has published official explanations of its points program, including hedge boosts, boosted markets and referral rewards.
Here's what you need to know to farm more efficiently.
1. Hedge boost: up to 2.5×
If you're hedging positions between @Lighter_xyz Core and Robinhood Chain, the direction matters.
According to Lighter's official documentation:
→ Crypto: Short Core / Long RH
→ RWA (Commodities, ETFs): Short Core / Long RH
→ RWA (Pre-IPO, Equities): Long Core / Short RH
The 2.5× hedge boost applies to eligible weekly points, not live points.
And Lighter can update the eligible directions weekly.
2. Some markets generate extra points
Lighter has confirmed that certain markets receive additional boosts.
One particularly interesting example is the earnings boost.
If an RWA market is linked to a company reporting earnings during the weekly points calculation period, that market receives a weekly boost.
That's one reason I was actively trading GOOGLE this week.
Pre-IPO markets and newly listed assets may also receive boosts.
3. Other boosts worth knowing
→ Robinhood Wallet mobile trading: up to 2× volume-based boost
→ Referred traders: +10% weekly points
→ Referrers: 10% of their referrals' live and weekly points
Different boosts have different conditions. Don't assume every multiplier stacks.
4. How I'm approaching it
I'm focusing on:
→ SPY/QQQ spread arbitrage
→ Eligible hedged positions
→ Markets with earnings-related boosts
→ Tracking points against actual trading costs
The goal isn't simply to maximize points.
It's to maximize points per dollar spent while controlling risk.
If you're not farming yet, you can join through my referral:
robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?…
And you can track your weekly points, volume and estimated valuations with my dashboard:
lighter-weekly.vercel.app
More points are great. But profitable farming depends on what they cost you.
Another improvement from @risextrade
Scale Orders are now live
After introducing TWAP orders, RISEx now lets traders place an entire ladder of limit orders with a single click
No more manually placing orders at different price levels
And this is something I've been noticing for a while:
RISEx isn't just improving its metric
The product itself keeps getting better
- More advanced order types
- A cleaner, more intuitive interface
- A much better mobile trading experience
- Continuous improvements to execution and usability
These might seem like small updates, but for those of us trading on RISEx regularly, they make a real difference
There's still plenty of room to improve, but I like seeing the team focus on the actual trading experience, not just points and incentives
Metrics attract attention. A good product is what keeps traders around
And from a farming perspective, I still think we're early
We haven't even completed one-third of the expected farming campaign, and based on my own weekly results, RISE Points can still be accumulated at a relatively low cost.
That doesn't mean farming is free or that future rewards are guaranteed.
But I believe the current R:R remains attractive, especially before competition potentially increases.
If you haven't started farming RISEx yet, you can use my referral to get a 12.5% points boost:
rise.trade/en/invite/smart
We're still early on @TxFlow_L1 Points.
But I don't think farming will stay this easy forever.
I think many people are overlooking what the new Builder Code announcement could mean.
Until now, third-party development was limited by API access. Now, TxFlow is opening the door to:
- Trading bots
- Automated strategies
- Third-party apps and frontends
For TxFlow, this is great news.
More integrations could bring more users, more volume and more activity to the protocol.
For Points farmers, however, there's another side.
We're only one week into Season 1, and retroactive Points haven't even been distributed yet.
I believe we're still very early.
But as more users arrive and more trading infrastructure gets built, competition for Points could increase significantly.
If the weekly Points pool remains fixed, more eligible activity means a smaller share for each participant.
And that's my main takeaway:
The opportunity is still early, but today's farming efficiency may not last.
I'm not saying bots are bad or that they'll necessarily receive Points.
Quite the opposite: this is a positive development for TxFlow.
I just think farmers should understand that what's good for protocol growth can also make farming more competitive.
And if you haven't started farming TxFlow yet, there's currently an exclusive campaign that could help reduce your trading fees.
Details in the first reply.
🤖 Made with AI
Builder Code lets you earn fees from the trading activity your app brings to TxFlow.
Frontends, bots, and wallet integrations can set fees within user-approved caps, with one builder code across perps and outcome markets.
Apply for a builder slot: txflow.com/apply
Here are the details:
xitter.cf/SmartDropFarmer/status…
People are debating whether @TxFlow_L1 Points are worth $1 or $4.
I'm more interested in lowering my cost basis.
One week into TxFlow Points, and I'm already seeing many people anchoring to very bullish valuations.
Personally, I'm taking the opposite approach.
We still have very limited information.
While Season 1 is expected to end no later than Q1 2027, very few people seem to be pricing in the possibility of additional seasons and future point emissions.
I've seen estimates ranging from $1 to $4 per point.
Could that happen? Maybe.
But for now, I'd rather stay conservative.
My cost this week was around $0.20 per point in trading fees.
Even under a relatively conservative $1 valuation, that's roughly 5x the fees paid to earn those points, before accounting for PnL, funding and other costs.
The key point is that I don't need ultra-bullish valuations for the math to make sense.
That's why I'm happy to keep farming at current levels, especially when there are opportunities to reduce costs.
Speaking of which, TxFlow has shared an exclusive campaign for the my community:
- $5,000 in Perps taker volume
- $30 in Fee Credits
- Complete the volume within 24 hours of joining
- First 100 qualified users only
- Campaign ends October 25
If you're already planning to farm Season 1 Points, this could help reduce your effective trading costs.
Campaign link in the first reply.
LIT was fighting to hold $3 just a few days ago.
Now it's approaching $4.
And today's Q3 Investor Call may have given the recovery another push.
Several developments have been building momentum, but some of the updates from the call could be particularly important for Lighter's future.
Here's a simple breakdown. 👇
1. @Lighter_xyz wants to enter the US market
Lighter plans to apply for US regulatory licenses in November.
In simple terms, they want permission to operate a regulated exchange for perpetual futures and options in the US.
More technically, they're pursuing CFTC registrations as a DCM (exchange) and DCO (clearing organization).
They've already had preliminary discussions with regulators.
Approval isn't guaranteed, but if successful, this could open the door to a much larger market.
2. Robinhood could become much bigger
Right now, Lighter is integrated with Robinhood Wallet.
But the ambition goes beyond that.
With the necessary regulatory approvals, Lighter hopes to expand into other parts of Robinhood's US offering and potentially integrate with more brokers and financial apps.
Imagine users accessing Lighter's trading infrastructure through applications they already use.
That's the opportunity.
3. Lighter is already generating real business
Q3 figures shared during the call:
→ $137.67B trading volume
→ $8.5M revenue
→ Over $1.6B open interest (active trading positions)
→ Over 1M Lighter Core accounts
→ 109.8M LIT staked
Lighter has also reportedly bought back more than 18M LIT in total.
This isn't just a roadmap. There's already significant activity behind it.
4. More products could arrive soon
→ Simple binary options already live
→ Traditional options (calls and puts) targeted by year-end
→ Lighter EVM mainnet also targeted by year-end
→ More wallet and exchange integrations potentially coming in Q4
The idea is to offer more financial products while allowing other applications to build on Lighter's infrastructure.
These are development targets, not guaranteed deadlines.
5. More clarity on token unlocks
The first monthly unlock for team and investor tokens is reportedly scheduled for January 29, 2027, followed by three years of gradual releases.
They also mentioned potential strategic buyers interested in purchasing large LIT allocations directly from existing investors.
That could help facilitate large transactions without relying entirely on public-market purchases, although future selling pressure remains a risk.
My take
What interests me most isn't just the move from $3 toward $4.
It's the possibility of Lighter reaching more users through Robinhood and other brokers, while expanding into options and a broader DeFi ecosystem.
If they execute, that could mean more trading activity, more revenue and potentially stronger demand for $LIT.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed.
But the long-term opportunity is becoming easier to understand.
Huge thanks to @0xyeongeun for sharing such detailed notes from the Investor Call.
Why I believe $LIT could eventually reach $10.
Not next week. Not because of a chart.
I'm talking about what @Lighter_xyz could become as this bull market matures.
At $10, with a 1B token supply, we're talking about a $10B FDV.
Ambitious? Absolutely.
But I wanted to build a bullish scenario around actual business growth, not just speculation.
1. Lighter already generates real revenue
According to DefiLlama, Lighter currently generates approximately:
→ $5M monthly protocol revenue
→ $60M annualized revenue
→ $66B monthly perp volume
Unlike many projects promising future utility, Lighter already has an operating business.
The question is how much bigger that business can become.
2. Options could be a major opportunity
Lighter has started exploring simpler prediction-style markets, but the opportunity I'm interested in is a full options trading platform.
Traditional options are an enormous market, and crypto options already generate tens of billions in monthly notional volume on centralized exchanges.
On-chain, @DeriveXYZ processes approximately $4B in monthly options notional, according to DefiLlama.
What if Lighter eventually became a market leader?
My bullish scenario:
→ $33B monthly options volume
→ 1.5 bps effective trading fee
→ ~$59M annual gross trading fees
That's over 8× Derive's current volume.
A very ambitious target, but it illustrates the opportunity if on-chain options adoption grows significantly.
Unlike Lighter's zero-fee standard perp trading, options could become a meaningful fee-generating business.
The final options fee structure hasn't been announced, so these are assumptions, not official projections.
3. Lighter EVM could accelerate everything
This is the part I'm most excited about.
Lighter EVM could allow lending protocols, automated vaults and structured products to interact directly with Lighter Core.
More applications could mean:
→ More users and collateral
→ More trading strategies
→ Higher perp and options volume
→ More revenue opportunities
HyperEVM has already demonstrated how a trading ecosystem can attract substantial DeFi capital.
But TVL isn't revenue.
The real opportunity is getting applications to generate additional activity through Lighter's trading infrastructure.
4. Traditional finance is opening another door
LIT now has two exchange-traded products:
→ Bitwise Lighter Staking ETP (BLIT)
→ 21Shares Lighter ETP (LIHT)
Both provide access to LIT through traditional brokerage infrastructure.
Their combined assets are still small, around $4M.
But they create another potential source of token demand as adoption grows.
They don't directly generate protocol trading revenue.
And I think institutional adoption could become one of the most important pieces of this thesis.
Today, institutional exposure to LIT through these products is still very limited.
But that also leaves considerable room for growth if Lighter gains recognition among traditional investors and attracts more capital through regulated investment products.
5. So how do I get to $10?
Here's my hypothetical bullish scenario for a more mature Lighter:
→ $180M annual revenue from perps and existing markets
→ $60M from a successful options business
→ $60M in additional trading revenue driven by EVM applications
Total: $300M annual protocol revenue.
This would require roughly 5× today's annualized revenue.
If the market valued that business at approximately 33× annual revenue:
$300M × 33.3 = ~$10B FDV
With 1B LIT total supply:
$10B FDV = $10 per LIT.
That's the mathematical path.
It assumes substantial market-share gains, strong monetization and a premium valuation multiple. None is guaranteed.
6. And what about buybacks?
Lighter already has a buyback and burn mechanism.
If revenue grows significantly, that could translate into greater token demand.
However, future unlocks, competition and the exact treatment of new revenue streams remain important risks.
> My conclusion
$10 is a very optimistic scenario that would require Lighter to become a leader in both perps and options, alongside significant EVM growth and institutional adoption.
It's a long-term thesis, not a short-term price prediction.
And today we have Lighter's Q3 Investor Call at 1:30 PM ET
We might get some important announcements that move $LIT.
Up or down? We'll see.
People are debating whether @TxFlow_L1 Points are worth $1 or $4.
I'm more interested in lowering my cost basis.
One week into TxFlow Points, and I'm already seeing many people anchoring to very bullish valuations.
Personally, I'm taking the opposite approach.
We still have very limited information.
While Season 1 is expected to end no later than Q1 2027, very few people seem to be pricing in the possibility of additional seasons and future point emissions.
I've seen estimates ranging from $1 to $4 per point.
Could that happen? Maybe.
But for now, I'd rather stay conservative.
My cost this week was around $0.20 per point in trading fees.
Even under a relatively conservative $1 valuation, that's roughly 5x the fees paid to earn those points, before accounting for PnL, funding and other costs.
The key point is that I don't need ultra-bullish valuations for the math to make sense.
That's why I'm happy to keep farming at current levels, especially when there are opportunities to reduce costs.
Speaking of which, TxFlow has shared an exclusive campaign for the my community:
- $5,000 in Perps taker volume
- $30 in Fee Credits
- Complete the volume within 24 hours of joining
- First 100 qualified users only
- Campaign ends October 25
If you're already planning to farm Season 1 Points, this could help reduce your effective trading costs.
Campaign link in the first reply.
Smart Drop Community Exclusive- TxFlow
$30 in Fee Credits for the first 100 eligible users who complete $5,000 in Perps taker volume within 24 hours of joining.
Join here:
app.txflow.com/campaign/firs…
Want to estimate how much your Points could be worth at TGE?
I've built a dashboard where you can test different FDV scenarios, future seasons and potential dilution.
Points Dashboard:
txflow-dashboard.vercel.app/
Why I believe $LIT could eventually reach $10.
Not next week. Not because of a chart.
I'm talking about what @Lighter_xyz could become as this bull market matures.
At $10, with a 1B token supply, we're talking about a $10B FDV.
Ambitious? Absolutely.
But I wanted to build a bullish scenario around actual business growth, not just speculation.
1. Lighter already generates real revenue
According to DefiLlama, Lighter currently generates approximately:
→ $5M monthly protocol revenue
→ $60M annualized revenue
→ $66B monthly perp volume
Unlike many projects promising future utility, Lighter already has an operating business.
The question is how much bigger that business can become.
2. Options could be a major opportunity
Lighter has started exploring simpler prediction-style markets, but the opportunity I'm interested in is a full options trading platform.
Traditional options are an enormous market, and crypto options already generate tens of billions in monthly notional volume on centralized exchanges.
On-chain, @DeriveXYZ processes approximately $4B in monthly options notional, according to DefiLlama.
What if Lighter eventually became a market leader?
My bullish scenario:
→ $33B monthly options volume
→ 1.5 bps effective trading fee
→ ~$59M annual gross trading fees
That's over 8× Derive's current volume.
A very ambitious target, but it illustrates the opportunity if on-chain options adoption grows significantly.
Unlike Lighter's zero-fee standard perp trading, options could become a meaningful fee-generating business.
The final options fee structure hasn't been announced, so these are assumptions, not official projections.
3. Lighter EVM could accelerate everything
This is the part I'm most excited about.
Lighter EVM could allow lending protocols, automated vaults and structured products to interact directly with Lighter Core.
More applications could mean:
→ More users and collateral
→ More trading strategies
→ Higher perp and options volume
→ More revenue opportunities
HyperEVM has already demonstrated how a trading ecosystem can attract substantial DeFi capital.
But TVL isn't revenue.
The real opportunity is getting applications to generate additional activity through Lighter's trading infrastructure.
4. Traditional finance is opening another door
LIT now has two exchange-traded products:
→ Bitwise Lighter Staking ETP (BLIT)
→ 21Shares Lighter ETP (LIHT)
Both provide access to LIT through traditional brokerage infrastructure.
Their combined assets are still small, around $4M.
But they create another potential source of token demand as adoption grows.
They don't directly generate protocol trading revenue.
And I think institutional adoption could become one of the most important pieces of this thesis.
Today, institutional exposure to LIT through these products is still very limited.
But that also leaves considerable room for growth if Lighter gains recognition among traditional investors and attracts more capital through regulated investment products.
5. So how do I get to $10?
Here's my hypothetical bullish scenario for a more mature Lighter:
→ $180M annual revenue from perps and existing markets
→ $60M from a successful options business
→ $60M in additional trading revenue driven by EVM applications
Total: $300M annual protocol revenue.
This would require roughly 5× today's annualized revenue.
If the market valued that business at approximately 33× annual revenue:
$300M × 33.3 = ~$10B FDV
With 1B LIT total supply:
$10B FDV = $10 per LIT.
That's the mathematical path.
It assumes substantial market-share gains, strong monetization and a premium valuation multiple. None is guaranteed.
6. And what about buybacks?
Lighter already has a buyback and burn mechanism.
If revenue grows significantly, that could translate into greater token demand.
However, future unlocks, competition and the exact treatment of new revenue streams remain important risks.
> My conclusion
$10 is a very optimistic scenario that would require Lighter to become a leader in both perps and options, alongside significant EVM growth and institutional adoption.
It's a long-term thesis, not a short-term price prediction.
And today we have Lighter's Q3 Investor Call at 1:30 PM ET
We might get some important announcements that move $LIT.
Up or down? We'll see.
What if @Lighter_xyz is building something much bigger than a Perp DEX?
- Options
- RWA markets
- Lighter EVM
A programmable financial ecosystem.
I've been connecting the dots behind Lighter's latest developments, and I think the long-term vision is becoming much clearer.
Here's what they're building, what already exists, and what still needs to happen.
1. The foundation is already there
Lighter started by competing in one of DeFi's most demanding sectors: perpetual futures
But its infrastructure now extends beyond traditional crypto perps:
→ Crypto and RWA perpetual markets
→ Pre-IPO price exposure
→ Unified Trading Accounts
→ Multi-Asset Margin
→ Public Pools and perpRFQ
→ A separate trading instance integrated with Robinhood Wallet
These aren't all future promises. They're part of the infrastructure Lighter has already developed.
The next step is making that infrastructure useful to an entire ecosystem.
2. Lighter EVM: Turning an exchange into infrastructure
On October 16, Lighter announced that its EVM devnet was live
Built with Axiom and OpenVM, Lighter EVM is designed to work alongside Lighter Core
And here's the interesting part.
Smart contracts can interact with the trading engine itself.
They can read market data, balances and positions, submit orders and move assets between environments.
Imagine what developers could eventually build:
→ Lending markets using trading positions
→ Automated delta-neutral vaults
→ Structured investment products
→ Trading strategies executed through smart contracts
→ DeFi applications built around Core liquidity
These are possible use cases, not confirmed live products.
The idea is simple: instead of every application building its own trading infrastructure, developers could build on top of Lighter's.
The EVM is currently in devnet. Mainnet remains TBA.
3. Options: expanding the financial product suite
Lighter has also officially teased options trading
And the founder has discussed trading perps and options from the same balance sheet
Why does that matter?
Because capital efficiency is one of the biggest advantages a unified derivatives platform could offer.
A trader could potentially manage different exposures without constantly moving collateral between isolated platforms.
More instruments. More strategies. More reasons to keep capital within the ecosystem.
Options aren't live yet, and their final specifications remain unknown.
But strategically, the direction makes sense.
4. Hyperliquid has already shown what an exchange ecosystem can become
HyperEVM is an interesting reference.
According to our analysis of DefiLlama data, its native DeFi TVL reached approximately $1.6B at its August 2025 peak.
Lending, liquid staking, DEXs and other applications developed around the trading ecosystem.
Lighter could pursue a similar expansion, although its architecture and execution model are different.
And there's an important lesson here:
TVL isn't revenue. An ecosystem only creates direct economic value for the underlying protocol when activity reaches mechanisms that capture that value.
5. Putting the pieces together
I see Lighter's potential evolution like this:
Perps → Existing trading engine and revenue.
RWA and Pre-IPO → Broader exposure beyond crypto.
Options → More derivatives products and potential trading fees.
Lighter EVM → Third-party applications interacting with Core.
Unified margin → Potentially more efficient use of capital.
The ambition isn't simply to win more perp market share.
It's to become a programmable foundation for on-chain financial markets.
> My take
I like the direction, especially because Lighter already has an operating trading business behind the vision.
But the next stage is about execution.
Options need liquidity. EVM needs developers. Applications need real users.
If those pieces come together, Lighter could become substantially more valuable as a business.
And the next important date is already on the calendar.
> Inversor Call:
On Wednesday, October 21, Lighter will hold its Q3 Investor Call at 1:30 PM ET.
I'm particularly interested in whether we get more clarity on the options rollout, EVM mainnet, ecosystem development and the economic implications for $LIT.
Those updates aren't guaranteed, but the call could help us better understand what's coming next.
Because ultimately, the question isn't just what Lighter wants to build.
It's how much value that expansion can actually create and how much of it could flow back to $LIT.
I'll revisit that question after the investor call, with the latest information and some numbers behind the thesis.
TxFlow Season 1 - My first Points are here!
575 Points earned. Top 7.36% of participants.
Now that the first weekly distribution is here, we can start estimating what these Points might be worth at TGE.
I've updated my @TxFlow_L1 Points Dashboard, but there's something important about my valuation thesis:
I don't expect TGE anytime soon, and I wouldn't assume Season 1 will be the only season.
Even if Season 1 ends by Q1 2027, I think additional seasons are a realistic possibility.
That's why I've included optional dilution scenarios:
- Season 1: 100% (baseline)
- Season 2: 75% of Season 1's Points
- Season 3: 50% of Season 1's Points
These are purely my assumptions, NOT confirmed TxFlow plans.
The idea is simple: what happens to the potential value of our Points if future seasons increase the total supply?
You can adjust these percentages and explore your own scenarios.
What's next?
I'm also planning a wallet-based analyzer to calculate trading fees, Points earned and cost per Point.
For that, I'm waiting for the necessary API access.
Get the dashboard in the First comment
Any feedback is welcome!
