Taking a break. See you in 2027. Valuable content on YouTube.
Joined November 2024
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Hey everyone, this will come as a surprise and I didn't see it coming myself: I'm taking a break from posting on X.
The reasons are personal and I've realized I need to shift my focus to something else before I can give this the time it deserves.
I'm grateful to every one of you who liked, shared and followed along and to everyone I got to help along the way. It means a lot.
This is a break, not a goodbye. I'll be back, but not before 2027. Until then, the account stays up, so you can still look through my older posts.
The great Q4 lock-in begins. 馃敀
bitcoin:native FRIDAY PREPLAN LONGS
Bitcoin has finally broken out of our 85k resistance with strength and I'm expecting a final rotation to our 87k highs.
We can look for longs in our demand zones, targeting the highs.
My favorite zone is around the 85k mark, since that's where our VAH, our S/R level and the demand itself all line up.
For ETH, we're still in compression, but I'd expect a rotation to the high, then look for shorts down from there. If we just end up taking the internal liquidity and getting an SMT with BTC, that'd work for me too.
Our most important event today is the NFP red folder news. Any news with a direct impact on the next rate hike or cut tends to move price a lot.
News drops 1h before NYO.
"Actual" coming in less than "Forecast" is good for crypto.
$nipez retweeted
bitcoin:native is holding really strong here, almost feels like we're accumulating before the next expansion to the upside.
We haven't been able to break down besides taking the buyside liquidity, and the sellside below is stacked, so in theory we should get an easy dump. But we don't.
I might be inclined to add more long positions on top of my remaining 2 longs from lower.
We currently have a nice SMT with ETH at the low, and I could see a potential long in our 1h wick demand, also sweeping local sellside liquidity, preferably while getting an SMT with USDT or ETH.
Looking at ETH, we're compressing really hard and should expect a big move soon, taking out all liquidity from one side, then rotating to the other.
If the setup is not high probability, I will stick to the original preplan (previous post) and going to wait for the extremes of the range to get taken before getting into any trades.
bitcoin:native THURSDAY PREPLAN
Focus stays on shorts, we swept the internal buyside liquidity and I'm now looking for a rotation toward our sellside below.
For that, I want a retrace into our golden pocket and a bearish break to short.
From there, if price moves into our demand at the .786 fib, I'd look for longs.
If price suddenly decides to expand to the upside due to the Uptober effect, I'm going to look for manipulation at the range high and then short it down with size.
Plan is set, gotta wait now.
Unfortunately, we didn鈥檛 get the pullback for our long, but that鈥檚 part of the game. We were right about our expectation of price going higher.
I came to this conclusion because usually, after price sweeps the buyside of the range and has easy-to-take sellside liquidity, it moves easily from point A to point B.
But in this case, even after taking all the internal liquidity, price was still getting absorbed at the lows, ultimately pushing price back up.
It was just a matter of time.
The plan now is to take the range high.
Everything is already pre-planned.
bitcoin:native is holding really strong here, almost feels like we're accumulating before the next expansion to the upside.
We haven't been able to break down besides taking the buyside liquidity, and the sellside below is stacked, so in theory we should get an easy dump. But we don't.
I might be inclined to add more long positions on top of my remaining 2 longs from lower.
We currently have a nice SMT with ETH at the low, and I could see a potential long in our 1h wick demand, also sweeping local sellside liquidity, preferably while getting an SMT with USDT or ETH.
Looking at ETH, we're compressing really hard and should expect a big move soon, taking out all liquidity from one side, then rotating to the other.
If the setup is not high probability, I will stick to the original preplan (previous post) and going to wait for the extremes of the range to get taken before getting into any trades.
3/4 of the year is already gone.
I posted this back in July, 3 months ago.
Many of you just scrolled by, many of you read the post without taking action.
What you really gotta ask yourself, and be honest, if you want the Porsche, want the travel life, want to retire your parents, and have everything that comes with having money, why aren't your habits and what you're doing reflecting the actions of someone who already has those things?
Saying you'll make it is not enough.
If your actions aren't speaking for you, you're doing something wrong.
I could say I'm going to build 30 pounds of lean muscle mass in the next year, or I could go to the gym 6 times a week and track my calories every day.
Only one of those things actually gets me to my end goal.
You have the power to change your life.
It's uncomfortable, it's hard. Our human body is biologically not made for long-term vision, we're wired for short-term dopamine.
But it's only through pain that we grow.
On the other side of pain lies success.
That last extra rep in the gym, where you're just barely moving the weight, that's what tears the micro fibers in your muscles, the ones that end up making your muscle grow.
Either decrease your desires or increase your input.
If you don't take action now, when then? I'm not going to save you, David Goggins is not going to save you, your parents are not going to save you, God is not going to save you.
If you have no clue where to start, ask Claude and use these last 3 months to give it your all.
See you in 2027.
6 months ago, many of you set goals for this year and made promises to yourself.
Ask yourself: Did I get closer to my goals? If I keep doing what I've been doing for the last 6 months, will I actually achieve them?
If the answer is yes, be proud of yourself. But if the answer is no, ask yourself why you're moving away from your goals instead of closer to them.
We all want certain things. We all have dreams we want to make real. But to get where we want to be, we have to put in the right work daily, consistently.
Because I know staying consistent is hard, I put together a plan to help you get back on track and use the next 6 months to actually change your life:
Liquidity rotations >>
bitcoin:native Monday Preplan & Trade
Preplan remains the same: I'm watching for longs in the green zones. The way BTC is currently coming down, we might go to the demand zone below.
My short position is running in profit, SL moved, TP1 at the range low. I shouldn't lose on this one.
This is also a good example of why you shouldn't move your stop loss if it isn't valid. I always see people move their SL because they're going to sleep, but that's not really a valid reason. You should only trail it if your system allows it. I would have been stopped out if I had moved mine.
Wishing everyone a great Monday!
bitcoin:native is holding really strong here, almost feels like we're accumulating before the next expansion to the upside.
We haven't been able to break down besides taking the buyside liquidity, and the sellside below is stacked, so in theory we should get an easy dump. But we don't.
I might be inclined to add more long positions on top of my remaining 2 longs from lower.
We currently have a nice SMT with ETH at the low, and I could see a potential long in our 1h wick demand, also sweeping local sellside liquidity, preferably while getting an SMT with USDT or ETH.
Looking at ETH, we're compressing really hard and should expect a big move soon, taking out all liquidity from one side, then rotating to the other.
If the setup is not high probability, I will stick to the original preplan (previous post) and going to wait for the extremes of the range to get taken before getting into any trades.
bitcoin:native THURSDAY PREPLAN
Focus stays on shorts, we swept the internal buyside liquidity and I'm now looking for a rotation toward our sellside below.
For that, I want a retrace into our golden pocket and a bearish break to short.
From there, if price moves into our demand at the .786 fib, I'd look for longs.
If price suddenly decides to expand to the upside due to the Uptober effect, I'm going to look for manipulation at the range high and then short it down with size.
Plan is set, gotta wait now.
bitcoin:native THURSDAY PREPLAN
Focus stays on shorts, we swept the internal buyside liquidity and I'm now looking for a rotation toward our sellside below.
For that, I want a retrace into our golden pocket and a bearish break to short.
From there, if price moves into our demand at the .786 fib, I'd look for longs.
If price suddenly decides to expand to the upside due to the Uptober effect, I'm going to look for manipulation at the range high and then short it down with size.
Plan is set, gotta wait now.
bitcoin:native Wednesday Price Analysis
We definitely got the expected volatility, with the news pumping Bitcoin up, sweeping buyside liquidity, and then reversing on the New York open.
I wasn't 100% certain, so I didn't take any short on the open itself, although in hindsight it was definitely really clean.
I didn't notice we had a main and a local SMT with ETH and if I'd checked orderflow, which I only did afterward, there were a lot of longs into the high, which is usually a really good sign of a reversal.
Nonetheless, can't change that now, trade got journaled.
Looking at this buyside sweep, I'm definitely leaning bearish and would look for continuation shorts if BTC delivers a bearish market structure break without taking out the sellside first.
I'm not so interested in longs anymore, after we swept most of the liquidity and got an SMT at the high.
No longs until the low is taken.
Let's get ready for Uptober 馃Η
bitcoin:native Wednesday Price Analysis
We definitely got the expected volatility, with the news pumping Bitcoin up, sweeping buyside liquidity, and then reversing on the New York open.
I wasn't 100% certain, so I didn't take any short on the open itself, although in hindsight it was definitely really clean.
I didn't notice we had a main and a local SMT with ETH and if I'd checked orderflow, which I only did afterward, there were a lot of longs into the high, which is usually a really good sign of a reversal.
Nonetheless, can't change that now, trade got journaled.
Looking at this buyside sweep, I'm definitely leaning bearish and would look for continuation shorts if BTC delivers a bearish market structure break without taking out the sellside first.
I'm not so interested in longs anymore, after we swept most of the liquidity and got an SMT at the high.
No longs until the low is taken.
Let's get ready for Uptober 馃Η
bitcoin:native Monthly close/Q3 volatility & news
Starting with price action, Bitcoin is once again in a sideways range with liquidity above and below, making it harder to jump into any trades, since for me one side has to get taken to be able to participate in a liquidity rotation.
I'm currently still in my long and short positions, I've moved my SL to BE/close to the nearest LH/HL.
Since today is the last day of the month, combined with the end of Q3, there's a high chance big players will try to manipulate the closing price in their favor, keeping in mind that whether we close above the monthly structure or sweep it depends on this close.
What I'd be looking for is a pump going into October, driving bullish sentiment, and then dumping price again for a late-month reversal. But more on that later.
For now, I only have 2 scenarios I'd be longing:
1. A dump down to 82k, sweeping the current low once again and tapping into our demand. From there I'd look for a Wyckoff model 1 accumulation and target the 87k highs. (My favorite)
2. A reclaim of the range POC, since we've been rejecting from it the last few times, and if we manage to pump aggressively through it, I'd look to trade the bullish continuation.
Besides that, I'm not seeing anything worth risking my money on, and we likely have to be patient, which shouldn't be a problem since we've basically had a trade every day so far.
Lastly, we've got red folder news that could add extra volatility, feeding into the monthly close theory.
Wishing everyone a great trading day.
No retest. GG.
bitcoin:native Change in direction
I could see us expanding into October and would look to position myself.
BTC has an SMT with ETH at the low and we have a freshly created demand POI.
While we still have sellside liquidity lower, I could see a scenario where we pump from here, take the range high over the next few days, and then come back for the sellside later.
Obviously, if we go for it now instead, the entire setup would be invalidated.
I'd give this setup a 50% chance of working, entry in demand to the high is an 8RR. Might be worth taking the coinflip.
I'd definitely say this trade is riskier to take, since we haven't taken the sellside below yet, meaning we still have a reason to dump once more.
In this sense, we're trying to predict whether the market leaves it for later or not, and we'll know the answer once either our stop or our TP hits.
NFA.
Manage your own risk accordingly.
bitcoin:native Change in direction
I could see us expanding into October and would look to position myself.
BTC has an SMT with ETH at the low and we have a freshly created demand POI.
While we still have sellside liquidity lower, I could see a scenario where we pump from here, take the range high over the next few days, and then come back for the sellside later.
Obviously, if we go for it now instead, the entire setup would be invalidated.
I'd give this setup a 50% chance of working, entry in demand to the high is an 8RR. Might be worth taking the coinflip.
I'd definitely say this trade is riskier to take, since we haven't taken the sellside below yet, meaning we still have a reason to dump once more.
In this sense, we're trying to predict whether the market leaves it for later or not, and we'll know the answer once either our stop or our TP hits.
NFA.
Manage your own risk accordingly.
bitcoin:native Monthly close/Q3 volatility & news
Starting with price action, Bitcoin is once again in a sideways range with liquidity above and below, making it harder to jump into any trades, since for me one side has to get taken to be able to participate in a liquidity rotation.
I'm currently still in my long and short positions, I've moved my SL to BE/close to the nearest LH/HL.
Since today is the last day of the month, combined with the end of Q3, there's a high chance big players will try to manipulate the closing price in their favor, keeping in mind that whether we close above the monthly structure or sweep it depends on this close.
What I'd be looking for is a pump going into October, driving bullish sentiment, and then dumping price again for a late-month reversal. But more on that later.
For now, I only have 2 scenarios I'd be longing:
1. A dump down to 82k, sweeping the current low once again and tapping into our demand. From there I'd look for a Wyckoff model 1 accumulation and target the 87k highs. (My favorite)
2. A reclaim of the range POC, since we've been rejecting from it the last few times, and if we manage to pump aggressively through it, I'd look to trade the bullish continuation.
Besides that, I'm not seeing anything worth risking my money on, and we likely have to be patient, which shouldn't be a problem since we've basically had a trade every day so far.
Lastly, we've got red folder news that could add extra volatility, feeding into the monthly close theory.
Wishing everyone a great trading day.
bitcoin:native Monthly close/Q3 volatility & news
Starting with price action, Bitcoin is once again in a sideways range with liquidity above and below, making it harder to jump into any trades, since for me one side has to get taken to be able to participate in a liquidity rotation.
I'm currently still in my long and short positions, I've moved my SL to BE/close to the nearest LH/HL.
Since today is the last day of the month, combined with the end of Q3, there's a high chance big players will try to manipulate the closing price in their favor, keeping in mind that whether we close above the monthly structure or sweep it depends on this close.
What I'd be looking for is a pump going into October, driving bullish sentiment, and then dumping price again for a late-month reversal. But more on that later.
For now, I only have 2 scenarios I'd be longing:
1. A dump down to 82k, sweeping the current low once again and tapping into our demand. From there I'd look for a Wyckoff model 1 accumulation and target the 87k highs. (My favorite)
2. A reclaim of the range POC, since we've been rejecting from it the last few times, and if we manage to pump aggressively through it, I'd look to trade the bullish continuation.
Besides that, I'm not seeing anything worth risking my money on, and we likely have to be patient, which shouldn't be a problem since we've basically had a trade every day so far.
Lastly, we've got red folder news that could add extra volatility, feeding into the monthly close theory.
Wishing everyone a great trading day.
Because I took an L before, I didn鈥檛 want to lose again, so I became more aggressive with my trailing, which ultimately led to this decision.
It鈥檚 easy when you bottom-tick a trade or the price instantly moves in your direction, but once price starts chopping around, it can really test your patience.
I鈥檓 a big believer in reflection, and while I鈥檓 not a perfect trader, I鈥檓 constantly working towards perfection and strengthening my abilities to perform at my best in these markets.
May this trade serve as a lesson for the next ones.
bitcoin:native Stopped -1% & BE
It was a really good trade. Confluences were pointing lower, happy to lose this one.
After that, price ended up going higher once again for a Wyckoff model 1 distribution. I took the short, keeping in mind that this could be a pre-NY manipulation so NY dumps us back down.
After we dumped, I trailed my SL to breakeven, thinking price shouldn't have a reason to come back up, since NY should deliver the needed liquidity injection, combined with the sellside lower, to complete the liquidity rotation quickly.
In hindsight, it wasn't valid to move my SL to BE.
While my thinking process was valid, and I made that call mainly out of experience trading NY, I still should've stuck to the technicals themselves.
Instead of walking away with a 3.5RR gain, I'm in a net loss with my previous trade.
It's part of the game, but I'm not proud of my management here.
Gotta be transparent with the trades.
bitcoin:native Stopped -1% & BE
It was a really good trade. Confluences were pointing lower, happy to lose this one.
After that, price ended up going higher once again for a Wyckoff model 1 distribution. I took the short, keeping in mind that this could be a pre-NY manipulation so NY dumps us back down.
After we dumped, I trailed my SL to breakeven, thinking price shouldn't have a reason to come back up, since NY should deliver the needed liquidity injection, combined with the sellside lower, to complete the liquidity rotation quickly.
In hindsight, it wasn't valid to move my SL to BE.
While my thinking process was valid, and I made that call mainly out of experience trading NY, I still should've stuck to the technicals themselves.
Instead of walking away with a 3.5RR gain, I'm in a net loss with my previous trade.
It's part of the game, but I'm not proud of my management here.
Gotta be transparent with the trades.
bitcoin:native Pre-NY update
Longs running in green, we're still hanging around the POC, and I want to see some strength come in to support a move higher.
Personally, I'm not going to look to open any more longs since I'm already positioned from the low.
I want to see the 1h FVG hold, and for that to continue the uptrend, maybe a NY sell-to-buy continuing the move higher.
Bitcoin has been a lot weaker compared to alts, and we're in an area where we want to see price expanding rather than chopping around and distributing.
bitcoin:native Trade Update & Tuesday Preplan
I'm currently in 2 long positions, one limit at the 1h wick demand got triggered and I set a second, more refined one at the 1min wick demand that got filled on Bitunix, bottom-ticking the low.
I'm still hedged, which puts me in a really good position. I've also moved my SL basically to breakeven on my refined entry, since it's the low and I don't really want it to revisit that point.
I'd reenter if we get another bullish BOS or something similar.
Trading wise, for longs we have to break the range POC if we want price to expand to the upside, this is currently our biggest resistance.
For shorts I don't have much to say, I'm already at breakeven, have TP'd 75% of my position and I'm holding the rest in case price decides it needs to take out more people before going higher.
Time will tell, letting the trades run.
Back when I offered everyone the opportunity to join a server to set their goals and keep themselves accountable for free, I did decide to share it in there. The server is closed, don't ask me now, it's not open and won't be until the new year 2027. Everyone is focused on their goals.
bitcoin:native Trade Update & Tuesday Preplan
I'm currently in 2 long positions, one limit at the 1h wick demand got triggered and I set a second, more refined one at the 1min wick demand that got filled on Bitunix, bottom-ticking the low.
I'm still hedged, which puts me in a really good position. I've also moved my SL basically to breakeven on my refined entry, since it's the low and I don't really want it to revisit that point.
I'd reenter if we get another bullish BOS or something similar.
Trading wise, for longs we have to break the range POC if we want price to expand to the upside, this is currently our biggest resistance.
For shorts I don't have much to say, I'm already at breakeven, have TP'd 75% of my position and I'm holding the rest in case price decides it needs to take out more people before going higher.
Time will tell, letting the trades run.
Back when I offered everyone the opportunity to join a server to set their goals and keep themselves accountable for free, I did decide to share it in there. The server is closed, don't ask me now, it's not open and won't be until the new year 2027. Everyone is focused on their goals.
bitcoin:native Bottom might be in
We got a really clean deviation of the range low and haven't been able to break through it after multiple attempts. For me this is clearly looking bullish, and I'd be interested in looking for longs targeting the high at 87k.
Another key confluence is the double SMT at the main low with USDT and ETH, as well as on the internal low.
Combining this with the fact that we've got more liquidity higher, I could see this being a really good long opportunity.
The main POI I'm watching is a 1h wick demand, which I'd probably limit into, targeting the highs.
I think we don't have to take the main low once again. If we do, we're very likely going much lower, so this is definitely a good area to look for longs.
Reject from the range POC, reaccumulate around the VAL, and then attempt the next push higher.
If we end up going lower, I'll happily take the L.
I also have my BTC short running, so I'm basically hedged. SL moved to BE.
I'm looking to close another 50% of my position on the pullback though.
Already loving this range.
Btw, we did already have a long at the low with the SMTs, but I wasn't on the chart as I was mostly on the go today. If you took it, congrats and definitely hold it, since I see potential in this one.
Let's see if we can get a long on the pullback.
