In-depth research on quality public companies 📖 Free content on Substack 🎧 Podcast: The Synopsis 👇 All Linked below 🔸— @DrewCohenMoney & @kevg1412
Joined September 2022
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Starting at GS research and migrating to the buy-side was a first hand experience in how lacking 3rd party research is.
Speedwell just released a short piece on how we differ.
speedwellsnippets.substack.c…
Former senior director at $APP on the value between IDFA and non-IDFA users
"I've heard an IDFA user is worth about 2X as much as a non-IDFA user.
That ratio is actually lower than when I was working at AppLovin.
When I was working at AppLovin, an IDFA user was worth about 3X as much as an unidentifiable user."
Speedwell Research retweeted
Really honored to have hosted @eric_seufert on our latest podcast!
We talk:
- Google Search Risks
- Agentic Commerce
- AI’s need for ads
- When ad model gains could plateau?
Watch on YT or Spotify now 👇
Former senior sales director at $CSGP on recreating the CoStar database and web-scraping
"I had some clients do that left CoStar because they were getting most recent sales information from a title company.
They were getting some advertisements for their properties on a third-party MLS, multiple listing service.
What it really comes down to is time and money. If you have the time to do it or you have someone else do it for you, you can pull that information within CoStar within minutes.
If you're going to three or four different sources and you can get the same kind of information, is that the best use of your time when you could be doing something else?
That's where it really comes down to."
Units under management grew ~200k q/q to 9.8mn (+8% y/y)
Total customers were up +6% y/y to 23,121
$APPF
$META Capex to D&A ratio has increased to 4.3x
We have constantly been drawing attention to this because...
1) Mathematically, it means that depreciation is going to continue to rise
2) It is likely earnings are overstated
Former senior director at $APP on how owning MAX makes AppDiscovery better
"If I'm running the auction, I know what I bid into it, I know what the winning bid is, I also know what every single other ad company bid into this auction. I know, 'Oh, Unity thinks this user is worth something, but Facebook doesn't. That's interesting.'"
Speedwell Research retweeted
Just running some $SE math. Open invitation to poke holes in it.
Fully Diluted Mkt Cap: $52b
Net Cash (after leases): $5b
Ecommerce: $142b in GMV. Assume 30% isn't real economic activity because of refunds/ brushing.
At a 1.5% EBIT/GMV margin, which I think is conservative, that is $1.5b.
Sea Monee LTM EBIT $1B
Garena $1.5b EBIT
Add in about -$750m of other service losses and unallocated expenses. Then taxed at 32%.
Comes out to 21x earnings.
Last quarter total revenue's grew +48% y/y.
Keep in mind if we assume the higher EBIT/ GMV margin, then growth in that segment would be less, but a 1.5% EBIT/GMV margin is generally not a "fully monetized" ecomm margin, so there is still room for growth investment in that figure.
Also Garena can be a bit volatile and there is still an open question on long term credit risk for Sea Monee.
Former Portfolio Manager at $CSU on price increases
"Constellation is famous for acquiring a company and then doing a price increase.
Software is a lot stickier than you think."
